Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[mutley]

I think we may a problem on the horizon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

For the severely uninformed. What is the potential problem?

[x-y-no]

Don't get excited, people, this wave is going nowhere...fast. No Felix from what I see on the latest satellite image.

Just curious ... would you care to elaborate on what you see on the latest satellite image that gives you such confidence?

[skysummit]

I think we may a problem on the horizon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Whoa....to hear YOU say this made me raise both eyebrows! LOL Yea, seriously though it looks like all systems go for this invest.

[x-y-no]

I think we may a problem on the horizon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

For the severely uninformed. What is the potential problem?

What we're discussing in this thread is the tropical wave NE of the leeward islands. It has strong upper divergence and fair lower convergence, and convection is improving. It has at least some potential to develop over the next day or two.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting Discussion from HPC this morning.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
948 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 24 2007 - 12Z MON AUG 27 2007

...... THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE MEAN WAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 00Z/20 GEM GLOBAL AND 06Z/20 DGEX BOTH SUPPORT BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS OF THIS POSSIBLE EVENT WITH TPC DURING 16Z/20 CONFERENCE CALL.

Don't like the GOM mention at all. However we're pretty far away from a TD right now, this Invest definately needs to consolidate first. I'd say late Wednesday at the earliest if this were to form.

[jabman98]

...... THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE MEAN WAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 00Z/20 GEM GLOBAL AND 06Z/20 DGEX BOTH SUPPORT BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS OF THIS POSSIBLE EVENT WITH TPC DURING 16Z/20 CONFERENCE CALL.

Interesting. Obviously it's very early days and who knows what will happen. But that statment may get people's attention.

[gatorcane]

...... THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE MEAN WAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 00Z/20 GEM GLOBAL AND 06Z/20 DGEX BOTH SUPPORT BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS OF THIS POSSIBLE EVENT WITH TPC DURING 16Z/20 CONFERENCE CALL.

Interesting. Obviously it's very early days and who knows what will happen. But that statment may get people's attention.

They are suggesting something that moves over the FL peninsula and into the GOM here.....

this caught my attention.

[CaneCharmer]

Don't get excited, people, this wave is going nowhere...fast. No Felix from what I see on the latest satellite image.

Just curious ... would you care to elaborate on what you see on the latest satellite image that gives you such confidence?

No cyclonic circulation, decrease of thunderstorm activity, just a general lack of "va va voom." I'm not in denial....I want to watch a good system develop as much as the next girl. I don't think this one has it.

[mutley]

I think we may a problem on the horizon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

For the severely uninformed. What is the potential problem?

What we're discussing in this thread is the tropical wave NE of the leeward islands. It has strong upper divergence and fair lower convergence, and convection is improving. It has at least some potential to develop over the next day or two.

Thanks. The way it was said, I thought maybe they were referring to yet something else new. Beyond or in addition to 92L.

[Stormcenter]

I think we may a problem on the horizon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

For the severely uninformed. What is the potential problem?

It's going to rain and I don't have an umbrella.

Seriously though like many have stated on this board already. I believe 92L is in the early stages of development

[skysummit]

Don't get excited, people, this wave is going nowhere...fast. No Felix from what I see on the latest satellite image.

Just curious ... would you care to elaborate on what you see on the latest satellite image that gives you such confidence?

No cyclonic circulation, decrease of thunderstorm activity, just a general lack of "va va voom." I'm not in denial....I want to watch a good system develop as much as the next girl. I don't think this one has it.

So you're not seeing what the NHC is seeing, nor are you seeing what the rest of us are....an increase in low level convergence, great upper level divergence with the building of an anticyclone over head, increasing favorable upper level conditions, and the potential of slow development. That's ok.

[x-y-no]

Don't get excited, people, this wave is going nowhere...fast. No Felix from what I see on the latest satellite image.

Just curious ... would you care to elaborate on what you see on the latest satellite image that gives you such confidence?

No cyclonic circulation, decrease of thunderstorm activity, just a general lack of "va va voom." I'm not in denial....I want to watch a good system develop as much as the next girl. I don't think this one has it.

Well, I certainly agree there's no cyclonic circulation yet. But a decrease in thunderstorm activity? Are you concentrating on the northern part perhaps? Because convection looks pretty vigorous in the southern part which I think is the more likely area for any development to occur ...

[jabman98]

Well, I certainly agree there's no cyclonic circulation yet. But a decrease in thunderstorm activity? Are you concentrating on the northern part perhaps? Because convection looks pretty vigorous in the southern part which I think is the more likely area for any development to occur ...

If it does develop south, how would that change models, projected path, etc?

[gatorcane]

Development possible and the system is slowing down some....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[x-y-no]

Well, I certainly agree there's no cyclonic circulation yet. But a decrease in thunderstorm activity? Are you concentrating on the northern part perhaps? Because convection looks pretty vigorous in the southern part which I think is the more likely area for any development to occur ...

If it does develop south, how would that change models, projected path, etc?

I'd say regardless we're talking about a generally WNW steering flow for the next few days at least.

[curtinnc]

Bump... Man I wish this thing would just be a big old rainmaker, make a pass into SC and NC, slow down and get us caught up with water and move on... Hate to say it, but growing up on the Chesapeake my Dad always said; "the only way Mother Nature can break a mid-summer drought is to throw a storm over you from the southeast".

[sau27]

just curious, the high that is steering dean way down to the south right now wouldnt be blocking this system from moving west?

[skysummit]

just curious, the high that is steering dean way down to the south right now wouldnt be blocking this system from moving west?

No, it would be pushing this system west.

[Jinkers]

[x-y-no]

just curious, the high that is steering dean way down to the south right now wouldnt be blocking this system from moving west?

The ridging should bridge over the top of this disturbance as the trough lifts out.

EDIT:

For instance here's the 12Z GFS initial 500mb:



and then 12 hours: