La Nina may NOT come afterall

[Anonymous]

As several posters explained in this thread, there isn't much of a difference between neutral and weak ENSO conditions. One possible explanation for this, is the possible correlation between SSTAs just off the coast of Peru and SSTAs in the MDR. This was explained in our seasonal discussion. We're confident that our seasonal numbers will verify nicely, regardless of whether or not La Nina is officialy declared this season.

[Anonymous]

But I'm surprised the sub-surface has warmed as much as it has. I don't know anything about Pacific currents, but the warmer subsurface has got to be coming from pulses in the west or from the south.

The recent warming of subsurface temperatures was caused by a large westerly wind burst triggered by the negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

[vbhoutex]

Interesting. It looks like Dr. Neal Frank may have been correct when he told the Storm2k attendees at the Houston/Galveston Hurricane Conference that he wasn't too sure there was going to be a La Nina and that he tought we were more likely to have neutral conditions, but an above normal active season. Experience always works!!!

[Anonymous]

Being conservative works 90% of the time.

[vbhoutex]

Being conservative works 90% of the time.

I'm not sure I am understanding what you are saying. Are you saying that if forecasters go with a conservative forecast it will verify 90% of the time? A very strong generalization imo.

[Anonymous]

A conservative forecast usually has a better chance of verifying more than any other forecast. I was exaggeratinga bit

[Anonymous]

The only thing different about neutral ENSO is that it tends to cause slightly more high latitude activity than a La Nina does. Sometimes it will reduce the amount of Cape Verde storms as well, though I don't expect that to be the case this season with the way the trade pattern is setting up. Otherwise, there aren't any noticeable differences in Atlantic TC activity between neutral and Nina.

[ColdFront77]

I suppose the forecast can change quite a bit from the original thinking for this seasons tropical storms and hurricane... but generally the same prediction of an above average season should continue...

Someone when one types in all caps, they are trying to get a point across. I hope it isn't always because they are "angry." If I use all caps. the chances of me being angry are as equal as the non-caps I am using now.

[grentz7721]

Sorry for straying off-topic, Suoercane, Tom, and TWW. I had to tell
OtherHD to stop using lol on me.

[Anonymous]

NP George