CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[flamingosun]

Question for Derek, or any of the pro mets . . .

I have a particular interest in Roatan. (An orphanage I help out ...) I see that some of the bands are moving across the island. Do you have any assessment of what they might actually be getting - both now and later?

Thanks

[HURAKAN]

[wxmann_91]

Does someone know the mirror site for the Cancun radar? Those servers got real slow during Wilma and Emily.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This must be CAT 5 right now...Id say winds are at 180kts..just an unreal sight too see..

[Scorpion]

180 Kts??? No way

[Pebbles]

This must be CAT 5 right now...Id say winds are at 180kts..just an unreal sight too see..

Where did you pull 180 knots from? Don't you think that's a little over the top kind of hype?

[DESTRUCTION5]

180 Kts??? No way

Meant MPH...Sorry

[Scorpion]

Oh yea, that sounds possible. Looks alot like Katrina at peak intensity

[crm6360]

180 Kts

Some people just love to sensationalize.

It's a cat 5. Just wait for a VDM to get specifics on surface winds.

Bigger question is will it start another ERC before landfall...

[tropicwatch]

430
URNT15 KNHC 201459
AF303 1404A DEAN HDOB 04 20070820
144730 2913N 08915W 4697 06374 0367 -094 -192 160032 033 999 999 03
144800 2911N 08915W 4648 06453 0357 -098 -214 162032 032 999 999 03
144830 2909N 08915W 4611 06537 0377 -101 -205 160031 032 999 999 03
144900 2907N 08914W 4586 06568 0363 -105 -211 162033 033 999 999 03
144930 2905N 08914W 4555 06625 0376 -110 -212 164032 032 101 001 03
145000 2903N 08914W 4524 06701 0397 -115 -220 168032 032 060 000 03
145030 2901N 08914W 4492 06748 0397 -118 -232 169033 033 035 008 03
145100 2859N 08914W 4452 06824 0405 -122 -236 169032 032 020 055 03
145130 2857N 08914W 4420 06879 0408 -123 -253 168031 032 016 058 03
145200 2855N 08914W 4394 06926 0412 -128 -254 164032 033 013 067 00
145230 2853N 08914W 4371 06964 0413 -130 -257 164033 033 013 067 00
145300 2852N 08914W 4345 07009 0416 -132 -279 166032 033 014 063 00
145330 2850N 08914W 4314 07064 0419 -134 -250 169033 033 012 069 00
145400 2848N 08914W 4279 07124 0421 -138 -238 169033 033 017 057 00
145430 2846N 08914W 4256 07163 0425 -141 -226 170031 032 016 060 00
145500 2844N 08913W 4240 07191 0428 -145 -201 171028 030 012 068 00
145530 2842N 08913W 4214 07247 0431 -147 -184 171028 028 012 070 00
145600 2840N 08913W 4188 07297 0438 -150 -195 170027 028 011 070 00
145630 2838N 08913W 4149 07360 0439 -155 -193 170026 027 012 069 00
145700 2836N 08913W 4119 07415 0441 -158 -198 172026 026 012 068 00
$$

Looks like that got one up out of Keesler but this is the only data I found.

[Scorpion]

I say recon finds around 908 mb

[Buck]

Man! This thing is a monster! Looks very foreboding in every satellite picture. Just from images, I'd guess this was at least 165-170 mph. I guess recon will tell us how high a Cat 5 it is. I bet it will have some historical pressures (I doubt sub-Wilma but among the lowest 10 or so).

[crm6360]

pressure will probably drop for the rest of the afternoon and bottom out sometime tonight...

don't forget the winds may take some time to catch up to the pressure/sat. presentation.

[Windspeed]

Meant MPH...Sorry

Interestingly, Dean may end up bringing gusts close to 180kts. But I won't be surprised if recon finds sustained flight level winds in the N eyewall of 150-160kts before Dean makes landfall. The structure of this storm is becoming too well organized and there remains a lot of high OHC for its core to cross. Ironically, the core may be too large to reach Wilma's record intensity, but I do expect Dean pressure fall at or below 900mb.

[Scorpion]

Those FL winds might be pretty crazy... perhaps approaching 170 kts

[jasons2k]

What a monster.

I haven't been able to check-in much over the last few days, but thank God Texas was able to dodge this one. I feel for our friends down in Mexico, the Yucatan certainly doesn't need another hit. Still a long season ahead...

[RL3AO]

No chance at Wilma and I don't think it has much of a chance at 900mb...its too big now.

[wxmann_91]

If this is a Cat 5 right now, it is barely one. The eye needs to warm and dry out some more for 910 mb or below.

[Buck]

I think it's got 900mb in the bag by the time it peaks...

[Scorpion]

HWRF says 885 mb at landfall so who knows how low this can go