Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Canelaw99]

Here is a link to the Hurricane Betsy plot...the only storm that I can remember would be close to 92l that also had a similar, not exactly the same, but similar high pressure regime over it

Click here for the link.

Holey moley! Can you imagine the traffic on S2K if a storm tracked like that one? Sheesh! LOL

[destruction92]

Here is a link to the Hurricane Betsy plot...the only storm that I can remember would be close to 92l that also had a similar, not exactly the same, but similar high pressure regime over it

Click here for the link.

Holey moley! Can you imagine the traffic on S2K if a storm tracked like that one? Sheesh! LOL

I think there would be a lot more traffic on S2K if a storm tracked into Texas or the Carolinas.
There seems to be a great deal of more S2K members who are from Texas, Louisiana, or NC compared to Florida.
But anyways, I digress.
I think that system may threaten Florida though.

[fci]

FCI how about this track that hit South Florida in 1929. Look how north it got first before bending west.

Find me on that was at 22 and as far east as 56!!

[Canelaw99]

I think there would be a lot more traffic on S2K if a storm tracked into Texas or the Carolinas.
There seems to be a great deal of more S2K members who are from Texas, Louisiana, or NC compared to Florida.
But anyways, I digress.
I think that system may threaten Florida though.

Not to even get involved in that discussion , I was referring to the fact that the storm was tracking pretty well north then all of a sudden went southwest. That would get everyone going.

[rjgator]

The 2:05 discussion does not even place a low on the wave yet. Does anyone know where or if the is a Low yet? If not where do you think it will form. I do not have access to sat data right now and was just curious on the comparisons to previous storms if we do not know where the low is yet.

[windstorm99]

The 2:05 discussion does not even place a low on the wave yet. Does anyone know where or if the is a Low yet? If not where do you think it will form. I do not have access to sat data right now and was just curious on the comparisons to previous storms if we do not know where the low is yet.

NHC-2:05

A LARGE AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W
SOUTH OF 28N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 20/0930
UTC SHOWED THE WAVE AXIS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN
53W-63W...AND ALSO FURTHER S JUST E/SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S
OF 15N TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 55W-62W.

[cycloneye]

405
WHXX01 KWBC 201826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070820 1800 070821 0600 070821 1800 070822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.5N 56.3W 24.1N 60.0W 25.8N 63.4W 27.3N 66.1W
BAMD 22.5N 56.3W 23.8N 59.7W 24.9N 62.8W 25.8N 65.4W
BAMM 22.5N 56.3W 23.9N 59.8W 25.2N 62.9W 26.3N 65.6W
LBAR 22.5N 56.3W 23.7N 59.0W 25.0N 61.7W 25.8N 64.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070822 1800 070823 1800 070824 1800 070825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 67.9W 28.8N 69.7W 28.5N 71.7W 28.4N 74.3W
BAMD 26.4N 67.2W 25.9N 69.6W 25.2N 72.2W 25.1N 74.6W
BAMM 27.2N 67.4W 27.1N 69.3W 26.4N 71.3W 26.2N 73.6W
LBAR 26.2N 66.0W 25.7N 68.5W 24.9N 70.2W 24.4N 72.0W
SHIP 49KTS 62KTS 72KTS 76KTS
DSHP 49KTS 62KTS 72KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 56.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 21.7N LONM12 = 53.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 49.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
18:00 UTC BAM Models.

[destruction92]

FCI how about this track that hit South Florida in 1929. Look how north it got first before bending west.

Find me on that was at 22 and as far east as 56!!

Look at this track: http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

[gatorcane]

That's scary Luis...its right at South Florida (except the BAMS which brings it a little farther up the East coast of Florida).

[destruction92]

Gatorcane, look at the hurricane track I just posted.

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC run of the BAM models.

[windstorm99]

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, look at the hurricane track I just posted.

interesting...is that the track you expect this to take?

['CaneFreak]

notice the speed on these models....it will be within 300 to 400 NM of Florida in 5 DAYS NOT 3 DAYS....plenty of time to get organized and yes...its headed west....none of them take it north of 28 N!!! gains more longitude than latitude through the next 5 days..

[fci]

Here is a link to the Hurricane Betsy plot...the only storm that I can remember would be close to 92l that also had a similar, not exactly the same, but similar high pressure regime over it

Click here for the link.

Now, Hurricane Betsy was one for the ages.
The first storm I really tracked; as a little kid!!!

Even Betsy was not that far East before coming to Key Largo.

If you have to pull up a map of Hurricane Betsy to find an example of an odd occurence for South Florida, then you are REALLY digging deep.

Which is exactly my point.

It would take a HIGHLY irregular system to threaten South Flroida as a Hurricane from 22N / 56W.

[gtalum]

Wow the models moved south. We could use a good rainmaker in Florida. Here's to hoping the development doesn't advance beyond a TS or Cat 1.

[JPmia]

well those models don't mean a hill of beans until we find a LLC to track....you can see that some are initializing in separate locations....getting interesting though....keep looking for the LLC folks and then the fun really begins!

[skysummit]

18z....

[gatorcane]

well those models don't mean a hill of beans until we find a LLC to track....you can see that some are initializing in separate locations....getting interesting though....keep looking for the LLC folks and then the fun really begins!

But the scary thing is the following:

- models are pointing in the general direction of South Florida.
- climatology supports this for this time of year
- the upper air environment is becoming more favorable for development
- it has plenty of warm water out ahead of it
-many monster storms have developed in the area this thing is moving into

[windstorm99]

Thanks for posting sky....Dont like the look of those models.