Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[x-y-no]

Yeah .. and after one page of HDOB data the flow has stopped again.

[tolakram]

Cuban spies! I'm in ur hirikan stealin ur recon.

['CaneFreak]

Cuban spies! I'm in ur hirikan stealin ur recon.

LOL...whats up with the recon data anyway? has anyone heard?

[CrazyC83]

044
URNT15 KNHC 201749
AF303 1404A DEAN HDOB 21 20070820
173730 1805N 08313W 6964 02515 9251 +184 +158 039063 074 105 003 03
173800 1804N 08312W 6969 02491 9237 +180 +171 058040 045 051 006 03
173830 1803N 08310W 6964 02487 9990 +171 +999 064029 032 032 006 05
173900 1801N 08310W 6968 02474 9226 +174 +174 051014 019 031 007 05
173930 1800N 08308W 6967 02480 9990 +173 +999 287005 010 021 006 05
174000 1758N 08307W 6967 02487 9990 +169 +999 253019 027 032 006 01
174030 1757N 08305W 6969 02506 9990 +165 +999 240036 041 046 007 01
174100 1756N 08304W 6969 02537 9990 +159 +999 232057 063 063 009 01
174130 1755N 08302W 6960 02588 9990 +137 +999 224074 087 105 011 05
174200 1754N 08301W 6951 02648 9990 +112 +999 222105 109 999 999 05
174230 1753N 08301W 6977 02666 9990 +101 +999 225115 120 122 033 05
174300 1752N 08300W 6960 02747 9990 +095 +999 224118 123 113 037 01
174330 1751N 08259W 6975 02788 9990 +093 +999 221111 117 099 030 05
174400 1750N 08258W 6957 02847 9990 +083 +999 214107 109 096 014 05
174430 1749N 08257W 6968 02862 9990 +070 +999 213106 109 083 023 05
174500 1748N 08256W 6964 02895 9990 +080 +999 213100 101 077 020 05
174530 1747N 08255W 6967 02917 9990 +095 +999 211094 096 076 024 01
174600 1746N 08254W 6966 02936 9990 +098 +999 211087 090 071 009 01
174630 1745N 08253W 6963 02956 9990 +096 +999 209084 084 067 008 01
174700 1744N 08251W 6965 02969 9990 +091 +999 207082 083 065 008 01
$$

From over an hour ago...

[Pebbles]

You know this is why I wuvs ya Senor! AHHH have missed recon during the off season... really have!

[brunota2003]

Hmmm...looks like they are having SATCOM problems again...same problem as the one flight earlier in the Atlantic. We'll see if this turns out to be the case.

[mempho]

894mb????

879
UZNT13 KNHC 201942
XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85680 23007 23524 70368 19009 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =
XXBB 70198 99181 70837 04583 00918 27211 11850 23007 22814 22633
33757 19020 44718 19450 55704 20220 66697 18000
21212 00918 ///// 11894 22022 22850 23524 33697 25008
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =

[CrazyC83]

If it is 894, it HAS to be a Cat 5...it takes an incredible pinhole eye to get that with less winds...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will see...Its running out of time to bomb but we will see.

[mempho]

If it is 894, it HAS to be a Cat 5...it takes an incredible pinhole eye to get that with less winds...

I just got this conflicting message from another board (probably still a 5, though):

508
URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z

[sevenleft]

If it is 894, it HAS to be a Cat 5...it takes an incredible pinhole eye to get that with less winds...

I just got this conflicting message from another board (probably still a 5, though):

508
URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z

It isn't conflicting. The VDM is more official than a dropsonde reading. The dropsonde coulda made a bad reading, or the message itself could have been decoded incorrectly. And, they have yet to sample Category 5 winds anywhere in the storm, so it's a very strong Category 4 hurricane. That 151KT reading supports 135KT at the surface.

[mempho]

If it is 894, it HAS to be a Cat 5...it takes an incredible pinhole eye to get that with less winds...

I just got this conflicting message from another board (probably still a 5, though):

508
URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z

It isn't conflicting. The VDM is more official than a dropsonde reading. The dropsonde coulda made a bad reading, or the message itself could have been decoded incorrectly. And, they have yet to sample Category 5 winds anywhere in the storm, so it's a very strong Category 4 hurricane. That 151KT reading supports 135KT at the surface.

OK, I had calculated 156...so it would really be there choice whether to go with 155 or 160 coming up (assuming that obs don't change between now and the issuance to the public)

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 155 at this point.

[sevenleft]

OK, I had calculated 156...so it would really be there choice whether to go with 155 or 160 coming up (assuming that obs don't change between now and the issuance to the public)

Very unlikely they go Cat 5 unless they get 155+ FL or 140KT SFMR.

[senorpepr]

894mb????

879
UZNT13 KNHC 201942
XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85680 23007 23524 70368 19009 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =
XXBB 70198 99181 70837 04583 00918 27211 11850 23007 22814 22633
33757 19020 44718 19450 55704 20220 66697 18000
21212 00918 ///// 11894 22022 22850 23524 33697 25008
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =

894?? huh?? That drop shows 918 mb.

XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////

[mempho]

894mb????

879
UZNT13 KNHC 201942
XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85680 23007 23524 70368 19009 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =
XXBB 70198 99181 70837 04583 00918 27211 11850 23007 22814 22633
33757 19020 44718 19450 55704 20220 66697 18000
21212 00918 ///// 11894 22022 22850 23524 33697 25008
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =

894?? huh?? That drop shows 918 mb.

XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////

You're right..see the follow-up post with the "decode"

[x-y-no]

894?? huh?? That drop shows 918 mb.

XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////

Thank you, I thought I was going crazy ...

I still stink at decoding dropsondes.

[senorpepr]

Let's see... prior to Jamaica, the max flight level wind was 154KT while the max surface wind was 150 mph. This time around, we had flight level winds was 151KT. Unless they see something stronger... VERY unlikely it will be upgraded to category 5 in the very near future.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

HDOB data gives you the reduction factor.

I discuss how I get it in this discussion I posted earlier today:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97267

Of course we have no HDOB data for this recent vortex.

[sevenleft]

894mb????

879
UZNT13 KNHC 201942
XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85680 23007 23524 70368 19009 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =
XXBB 70198 99181 70837 04583 00918 27211 11850 23007 22814 22633
33757 19020 44718 19450 55704 20220 66697 18000
21212 00918 ///// 11894 22022 22850 23524 33697 25008
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =

894?? huh?? That drop shows 918 mb.

XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////

Why is the pressure so often attached to the bottom of the message next to a 7xx group?