CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Stratosphere747]

Dean has taken a fairly good shift to the WNW for a bit.

Anyone notice that it looks like the ULL has stalled.Last set of numbers I did on Dean was 18.85mph for the last 7hrs and probably just a+.5-1mph needed for angle adjustment.I need some help on this also looking at the ATL WV loop I would say the high behind Dean is SE-NW? up towards the Pan FL up to NC-VA border and out to the ATL?tring to learn how to read this stuff.And one other thing can a Cane go under an ULL?Kevin

I knew I was about to open up something after last night...

After the straight W course since basically leaving Jamaica, Dean seems to be stair stepping again. Will blend itself out and maintain the slightly N of W course.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure if this is old data or not.

[Derek Ortt]

The ULL has not stalled. It continues to move to the west. I have looked at the sats many times, and it is moving. I really do not understand what everyone is seeing

[gboudx]

The ULL has not stalled. It continues to move to the west. I have looked at the sats many times, and it is moving. I really do not understand what everyone is seeing

Yeah, looking at the water vapor loop link provided in the earlier post, it's still moving west. I don't see any signs of a stall.

[Derek Ortt]

there is some SAL leftover that is interacting with this. Not going to get into the core since there is no shear, but enough to slow down intensification it appears.

Still, once the NE quad is sampled, I suspect this will be a cat 5

['CaneFreak]

there is some SAL leftover that is interacting with this. Not going to get into the core since there is no shear, but enough to slow down intensification it appears.

Still, once the NE quad is sampled, I suspect this will be a cat 5

I agree...or even the SE quad for that matter...there are some very cold cloudtops less than -70 C in this Quad of the hurricane and I expect they will find the strongest winds here on the east side of the circulation center as well.

[sevenleft]

there is some SAL leftover that is interacting with this. Not going to get into the core since there is no shear, but enough to slow down intensification it appears.

Still, once the NE quad is sampled, I suspect this will be a cat 5

I agree...or even the SE quad for that matter...there are some very cold cloudtops less than -70 C in this Quad of the hurricane and I expect they will find the strongest winds here on the east side of the circulation center as well.

They found 122KT SFMR winds in the SE quad earlier.

[cycloneye]

Sol Stereo radio station is reporting that all the refuge sites are ready to recieve all the people.There are 14 refuge sites including the convention center in Cozumel.

Todos los refugios estan listos para recibir a todas las personas .Hay 14 refugios en Cozumel incluyendo el Centro de Convenciones.

[Javlin]

The ULL has not stalled. It continues to move to the west. I have looked at the sats many times, and it is moving. I really do not understand what everyone is seeing

Well if it is still moving it sure is a lot slower than earlier,I mean its been in roughly the same position for almost 3-4 hrs now.I only brought it up because what is over the center of TX the dark area were Erin was? does not low pressure get replaced with high pressure rather quickly?can(loop) that be a blocking mechanism?Lows are easy enough too see it's the highs I am having problems with.Kevin

Also can a hurricane go under an ULL?

[tolakram]

[Brent]

I don't think it QUITE looks like a 5... it's not perfect but it does look better than earlier, so who knows.

[Stormtrack03]

326
URNT11 KNHC 201913
97779 18504 20193 82200 30500 12068 10079 /3112
41050
RMK AF303 1404A DEAN OB 13
SWS = 043KTS

[Brent]

LOL anyone see the latest HWRF?

[wxwatcher91]

Back up to T6.5/6.5 (Category 5 is 7.0).

[Wacahootaman]

Ground Zero.

Ought to be some major price reductions on waterfront real estate by tomorrow.

I really hope these people realize what is comming their way and go inland!

[cycloneye]

Cozumel,tu vas a ir a un refugio,o tu casa es bien segura? Aunque alli no van a recibir lo mas fuerte de Dean no esta de mas precaver a tener que remediar.

Cozumel,are you going to a refuge,or you have a safe place to stay. Even if the most powerful winds from Dean will not impact your area,it is better to stay safe than be sorry later.

In case to some that may not know,Cozumel is a person that is registered as that nickname.

En caso de que alguien este con duda,Cozumel es una dama que esta registrada con ese nombre.

[Sanibel]

Assumption is a credibility killer. We have all the data that says Dean has all the conditions to become category 5, but Dean itself seems to feel comfortable in this notch just below category 5. I talk about storm personalities and this is a good example. Of course, no one here is wishing to pump up the destructiveness of a landfalling hurricane. Just trying to get their theories to work. Dean has the final say.

Right on track. Note: Like Iris and Keith, this corner of the Caribbean sometimes has hurricanes bomb right before landfall. Dean looks like an established system that won't bomb. We'll see.

[CrazyC83]

I'd estimate 135 kt right now. The pressure is only slowly changing and the T-numbers do not yet warrant Cat 5.

[tallywx]

If you go by satellite presentation alone, this storm looks like a textbook 145-150 mph 'cane. A cat 5 is something special that when you look at its satelllite pic, you know immediately that it's "da bomb." Pinhole eye? Utterly perfect buzzsaw shape? Large annular structure? Completely clear eye or eye with mesovorticies in it? Dean has none of these characteristics right now. Again...classic upper cat 4.

[cycloneye]

Time is running out for Dean to turn into a cat 5.But regardless if is a 4 or 5,the impact will be the same in Yucatan.I am hearing in the Mexican Radio Stations (go to Yucatan Thread) that they are well prepared,even before the hurricane watch was up as they have much experience with past monsters such as Emily and Wilma.