Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[rainydaze]

Rainydaze has her bear watching too

[destruction92]

From NWS Melbourne AFD:

FRI-SUN...FCST WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISORGANIZED T-WAVE BTWN 50W-60W. ATTM...MID-RANGE HPC/NHC
COORDINATED FCST BRINGS A SPOT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FRI-SAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT... WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THRU THIS TIME FRAME.

Once again, even if 92L develops and affects Florida, it should stay well north of SE Florida.

Nope...with a ridge building to the north a W to WSW track for a couple of days is very possible...many storms have done this: Katrina, Andrew, Jeanne, etc.

What I meant to say is that 92L poses a much greater threat to central Florida than South Florida.

[Stormcenter]

Here is the 7 day forecast from HCP-TPC coordinated track of 92L. Again, this 5-7 days out so I wouldn't focus on the exact placement of the low whether it's central or south FL.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Why not? It's pretty important.

[windstorm99]

You must be kidding right....We dont even have a well established LLC to even think right now about picking out specific areas.The trend is that something might try to approach southeast florida in the next 3-5 days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The Floater is set wrong once again. Someone said on remnants of Erin. Which is true. That is the second time they messed up the Floaters.

[windstorm99]

The Floater is set wrong once again. Someone said on remnants of Erin. Which is true. That is the second time they messed up the Floaters.

Nope...SSD has the floater right were it should be.

[mel38]

thanks for the confirmation. i thought i was seeing things.

[Canelaw99]

How cool!! I emailed Max Mayfield via his blog with channel 10 here in Miami, and I just got a response. Here's what I wrote, with his response after:

my email:
"Hey there Max! I really miss you at the NHC, but I'm glad you're still around to help us out during hurricane season. I was just wondering what your thoughts are on the wave that's to our east. A couple of the models are spinning this up into a storm that would impact S Fl this weekend. I was just wondering what your thoughts/opinions are. Thanks so much and keep up the great work you do!"

His response:
"Thanks for the kind words.

In regard to the wave, it looks like you have already checked it out. The Canadian model keeps wanting to develop something but then again that model has been overdoing things all season. It is certainly something that bears watching. But the truth is that the models simply don't do a very good job yet at genesis. A lot of smart folks are working on that but this is a real weakness in the guidance models at the moment. I always watch areas like this but don't get overly concened until the deep convection becomes more concentrated around a discernible circulation center.

Regards,
Max"

So, there ya go.....

[gatorcane]

Folks look at this loop. For any of you that think this won't go west check out how strong that ridge is to the north that is building.....its forcing the convection on the north part of this wave to move west..over the past couple of hours the blob is being blown more westerly than WNW...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Steve]

Don't like the Gulf approach from the ESE toward Louisiana. It's not going to verify, but the hyrdro folks are the only ones plotting it, so that's all I've got to comment on. Worst case for New Orleans is always the storm from the ESE passing south of the city. Will it ever happen????

Steve

[hial2]

MAIN EVENT:

Central Florida vs South Florida

This is the beginning of a looooong match...and there's nothing out there yet!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ah...well at least something may lessen this heat wave...
Geez it's been like 96 each day in tampa!

Of course heat is better than a hurricane, but some
rain would be nice.

[ronjon]

Looks pretty disorganized on VIS SAT. Let's see if the convection persists over night. None of the models are now showing any strong development. I agree that the upper air enviroment will slowly improve in the next two days. I'm not expecting to see anything (if at all) at least until then.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I just see a big cloudy mess, nothing even close to a LLC, IMO.

[cpdaman]

first i see a LLC mentioned here

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.

second with it's likely slow development it would probably be in the neighborhood of 24 n 65 west or so if and when it gets named a depression (IMO 36 hours), this would put it where a bunch of other storms that have effected florida have formed would it not.

[wsquared77]

In regard to the wave, it looks like you have already checked it out. The Canadian model keeps wanting to develop something but then again that model has been overdoing things all season. It is certainly something that bears watching. But the truth is that the models simply don't do a very good job yet at genesis. A lot of smart folks are working on that but this is a real weakness in the guidance models at the moment. I always watch areas like this but don't get overly concened until the deep convection becomes more concentrated around a discernible circulation center.

Regards,
Max"

So, there ya go.....

Yea! Max has bears too!! All these pictures of the bears have been cracking me up...which is a GOOD thing....research shows laughter lowers stress, reduces anxiety, increases problem solving etc. etc. etc.

[LaBreeze]

So, could this be Felix in the making?

[Tireman4]

Rainydaze has her bear watching too

Let us all bear watch. The lazy, hazy days of Summer.

[perk]

MAIN EVENT:

Central Florida vs South Florida

This is the beginning of a looooong match...and there's nothing out there yet!!

At least it's not a Texas vs Florida shootout. They can get ugly.

[Sabanic]

MAIN EVENT:

Central Florida vs South Florida

This is the beginning of a looooong match...and there's nothing out there yet!!

At least it's not a Texas vs Florida shootout.

Better yet . . . Tide VS Gators