CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

151 knots*1.15*.9=156.285 mph at the surface. Cat5 is 156+.

[jimvb]

I fear that Dean may strike Cantarell, Mexico's largest oil field. The field is already declining in output; if its equipment is damaged or destroyed, will it be rebuilt? I am concerned that oil prices will soar to $85 a barrel or higher. Is Dean headed for a direct strike on Cantarell?

[dtrain44]

The difference between an upper cat4 and cat5 is 1 mph.

We really need a better scale, something more sliding instead of stepping.

I'd say we already have that scale: pressure, sustained winds, and other things like size of the wind field and potential for storm surge all offer a sliding estimate of storm intensity. Saffir-Simpson does what's it's supposed to: lets people know vaguely how strong a storm is. The point is well taken, though, that there's no real difference between a high 4 and a low 5, especially when our ability to estimate the maximum sustained wind in an intense hurricane is pretty sketchy.

[CrazyC83]

151 kt FL = 136 kt surface. I think they will hold it at 135 kt unless a bigger number comes in, as it rounds back down.

[WxGuy1]

151 knots*1.15*.9=156.285 mph at the surface. Cat5 is 156+.

151 kts * 1.15 * .85 = 148mph ... If we don't see anything above 151 kts at flight level, and if we don't have Cat 5 level SFMR and/or dropsonde data, I think the NHC may keep Dean at Cat 4. CDO is getting smaller on the north hemisphere of Dean, and we still see a lack of good tops colder than -75C.

/ unimpressed still by satellite appearance of a high-end Cat 4 or low-end Cat 5 hurricane.

[RL3AO]

Not enough yet. Winds might get a bump to 155, but not enough yet for a Cat 5.

[Stormtrack03]

155 is unofficially really a CAT 5 (no diff really between 155 and 156)

[marcane_1973]

Unfortunately from a damage point of view Dean will be very much like his cousins Wilma and Rita!

Yeah....he is still mean Dean and i am sure will do some major damage to Mexico. Hopefully he will wobble into an area with his eyewall and make landfall in a very low populated place. All the way up to Cancun will have a decent storm surge for what the NHC is showing and some places are still recovering from Wilma if I'm correct??? Just got the latest pressure of 918!!! Wow looks like maybe Mr. Mean Dean could get to Cat 5 but his time is running out. He sure is moving pretty fast.

[KBBOCA]

There are some fascinating accounts of the area in Mexico that are threatened by Dean in the Cozumel/Cancun correspondent reports on Storm Carib.

What I found particularly haunting is the story of two ghost towns in the area -- ghost towns because they were wiped out by Cat 5 storms in the 50s and never rebuilt.

You can read the accounts here:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/mexico.shtml

The two messages I found most interesting and informative that you should look for are:

- Mean Dean up date
* From: Michael Hopson <mike at hotinplaya.com>
* Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2007 14:29:48 -0500

Grave threat for Cosata Maya
* From: Michael Hopson <mike at hotinplaya.com>
* Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2007 10:40:11 -0500

[artist]

NCSU - have you been able to get in touch with your family? My friend hasn't been able to and we haven't been able to get any info regarding their area. I do hope you have and all are fine. You all are in our continued prayers.

[Derek Ortt]

let me repeat again

THE 90 PERCENT RULE IS NOT ABSOLUTE

There are no surface obs that support category 5 status. The FL reduction has been a consistent .85 throughout this storm

[Sanibel]

151KT FL = 156mph borderline category 5

918 is category 5 pressure

[wxwatcher91]

Stormtrack03, key word is "unofficially" , but I understand what you mean. Anyway, let's keep the talk to the recon discussion thread

[mempho]

151 kt FL = 136 kt surface. I think they will hold it at 135 kt unless a bigger number comes in, as it rounds back down.

They could call it either way. Personally, it is so close that I would operationally call it a 5 if for no other reason than the fact that I have a 156mph surface wind and for the shock value in that it might cause people wishing to "ride it out" to reconsider. If needed, change it in the post-storm analysis.

[Innotech]

Only one town seems to be down there and its inland a bit. I think damage will be relatively light. This is probably the ideal scenario for us hurricane watchers in that this storm didnt cause a huge amount of destruction and seems to be landfalling in the best possible place but still put on a Cat 5 show (as damn near as matters)

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing that supports cat 5 yet. The FL winds are at FL, the SFMR and dropsondes are still below cat 5; thus, it is not a cat 5

[wxmann_91]

The latest north wobble nudges Dean slightly away from the populated areas of Chetumal. The areas between Chetumal and Cozumel are relative rural w/ the exception of Felipe Carrillo Puerto.

http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/yuc ... an-map.gif

[msbee]

OMG, that so scary

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The pressure is falling now and the thing is looking much more organized. I should be close just as it is making landfall.

[RL3AO]

They probably won't have another VDM before advisory time.