Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[windstorm99]

Updated discussion on 92L-Jeff Masters.

Disturbance 92L needs to be watched

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, "Invest 92L", has changed little in organization today. Wind shear is about 5-10 knots in this region, and an upper-level anticyclone has formed over 92L. This is a very favorable environment for intensification, should 92L start to get organized. The disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. It is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and will be near the central Bahamas by Wednesday, and the east coast of Florida by Friday. It does not appear that any troughs strong enough to recurve 92L will swing by until Saturday at the earliest.

[HURAKAN]

Dean is doing what he has for the last 48 hours. Stay pretty much the same, and go through EWRC after EWRC. This on the other hand could very will turn westward...Do I think it will develop, that is very low be the looks of this thing. But if you look there is a area of turning. So its something to watch.

Barry and Erin taught us that things can occur rather quickly in the tropics.

[HeeBGBz]

I snagged this from another board.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

...Do I think it will develop, that is very low be the looks of this thing. But if you look there is a area of turning. So its something to watch.

You have a strong tropical wave with good convection moving into a favorable area for development in late August. I think the odds for development are quite good.

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
440 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. THERE WILL BE A
FEW SHORT WAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...BUT
TIMING THESE FEATURES AT THIS POINT IS NOT PRACTICAL. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...LEADING TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND MORE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS MEX GIVEN ITS
RECENT WARM BIAS.

[ConvergenceZone]

the good news is that since it's not expected to reach depression status(if it does) until Wednesday, that it won't be much of a storm by the time it hits Floriday. It's just not going to have the time. The hardest part is organizing and developing a LLC. I'm thinking tropical storm by the time it hits Florida though. If it was moving really slow, then all bets would be off...

[Derek Ortt]

the thing has 6 days before striking Florida most likely.

It has time to develop

[windstorm99]

the thing has 6 days before striking Florida most likely.

It has time to develop

[gatorcane]

the thing has 6 days before striking Florida most likely.

It has time to develop

Yes unfortunately I agree with him on that. So many storms have bombed out traversing the Bahamas and Gulf Stream...and it has at least 3-4 days over the open Atlantic to get better organized before reaching the warm waters off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas.

[crownweather]

Pulled this off of the Weather Underground's Jeff Master's blog site:
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:40 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
CNN gave ominous predications by Larry Cosgrove that 92L will be the next hurricane to hit Florida in about 7-8 days with 87 knots in about 5 days time.

Did anyone actually hear Larry say this and if so, what was the exact wording. Reason I ask is that I know how the media can be at times.

[Bluefrog]

where did that come from ?

[Blown Away]

Pulled this off of the Weather Underground's Jeff Master's blog site:
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:40 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
CNN gave ominous predications by Larry Cosgrove that 92L will be the next hurricane to hit Florida in about 7-8 days with 87 knots in about 5 days time. ??
Did anyone actually hear Larry say this and if so, what was the exact wording. Reason I ask is that I know how the media can be at times.

[BayouVenteux]

Pulled this off of the Weather Underground's Jeff Master's blog site:
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:40 PM CDT on August 20, 2007.
CNN gave ominous predications by Larry Cosgrove that 92L will be the next hurricane to hit Florida in about 7-8 days with 87 knots in about 5 days time.

Did anyone actually hear Larry say this and if so, what was the exact wording. Reason I ask is that I know how the media can be at times.

Read on another board earlier that he was on Faux News Channel. I'm at my office so I can't verify that...hard to believe he would say such a thing based on my years of reading his e-mail columns.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe a depression or tropical storm would be something interesting to watch just for marking a name off the list. Who knows what this will do, its a watch and see.

[PTrackerLA]

the thing has 6 days before striking Florida most likely.

It has time to develop

Derek, where do you see the LLC closing off if this were to form. The whole area is so large I can't really decide where the center would be based on the current satellite.

[rainman31]

Where would 92L move most likely after striking Florida?? Texas??

[vaffie]

Where would 92L move most likely after striking Florida?? Texas??

It depends on how strong and how far south the cold front goes, and how far south or north 92L is when it enters the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

the thing has 6 days before striking Florida most likely.

It has time to develop

Derek, where do you see the LLC closing off if this were to form. The whole area is so large I can't really decide where the center would be based on the current satellite.

Where the LLC is forming is pretty obvious...just go to the floater and look at the blob between 20N and 25N and 55W and 60W....

there is a tight spin there...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 202121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 270 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Bluefrog]

no way is it going to Mississippi ... that is out of the question