Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38224
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#481 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:34 pm

CronkPSU wrote:this is around the area that WIlma bombed wasn't it?


Yep... and Gilbert.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:
Contact wxmann_91

#482 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:09 pm

Wow, Dean sure loves concentric eyewalls.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
marcane_1973
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 330
Age: 51
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:01 pm
Location: N.C.
Contact:
Contact marcane_1973

Re:

#483 Postby marcane_1973 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:23 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, Dean sure loves concentric eyewalls.

Yeah.... He has had them almost his whole life. Probably why he has not intensified so quick after he started his first one when he bombed to 918. After that he did an ERC like every 20 minutes and decided one eye was not enough. :lol: Rita did the same thing but it seemed to make her steadily weaken. Seems that alot of storms can struggle with an ERC if they continuously do them. Katrina I believe only had 2. Her eyewall was so well established it seemed she was happy to keep hers for awhile. she had one of the best eyes in my opinion ever.
0 likes   
Top
miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#484 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:57 pm

MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 2306Z

155kt in the NE Quad with a 915mb pressure...Cat 5 in my book.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#485 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:03 pm

At .85 reduce its 151 mph at the surface. But at .9 it would be 160 mph. Since .85 is being used its the 151 mph.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#486 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:11 pm

155 kts,915 mb is a Cat 5 in my book
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3426
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#487 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:14 pm

The recon reports were short lived. This is frustrating.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormtrack03
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:06 pm
Location: Downingtown, PA

Re:

#488 Postby Stormtrack03 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:15 pm

Scorpion wrote:155 kts,915 mb is a Cat 5 in my book


I concer.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34298
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#489 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:16 pm

I do think right now it is a Cat 5 for the first time. If they don't upgrade it now I think they will in the TCR. My current estimate is 140 kt/912mb.
0 likes   
Top
sevenleft
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:36 pm

#490 Postby sevenleft » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:17 pm

But guess what, it's not a Cat 5! It's a very intense Cat 4 until they actually sample Cat 5 winds.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mempho
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 228
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:08 am
Location: Memphis, TN

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#491 Postby mempho » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:27 pm

It's not a Cat 5. No cigar.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#492 Postby thunderchief » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:27 pm

Lets just call it 'borderline 4/5' and stop the pointless arguing. Or even better just say 915mb.



Anyway, anyone know when the next plane, hopefully with working coms, is going out?
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re:

#493 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I do think right now it is a Cat 5 for the first time. If they don't upgrade it now I think they will in the TCR. My current estimate is 140 kt/912mb.


Why would it be 912mb? Recon showed it was 915/916.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#494 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:32 pm

When will they get back into the center of this?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#495 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:33 pm

We have about ten more years to upgrade it!!! Relax.

P.S. Andrew!!!
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34298
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#496 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:38 pm

162 kt FL found last time by. That should seal the deal. That translates into 146 kt at the surface with 90%, or 138 kt with 85%.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#497 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:39 pm

162 kt in the NW quad....likely a bit higher in the NE.

There is the end of this unnecesary discussion of whether its a 4/5.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#498 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:40 pm

If we can get 162 kt in NW quad I'd like to see the numbers in the NE quad... perhaps 167-168? That would make Dean 150 kt perhaps. 162 usually means 145 kt by the way
0 likes   
Top
superfly

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#499 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:43 pm

The NW quad > NE quad for a west moving storm, only about the 500th time it's been said.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#500 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:45 pm

Eh actually i thought the strongest winds were in the northern eyewall for a westward moving storm.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jconsor, WaveBreaking and 89 guests