CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[marcane_1973]

Anyone care to take a early guess on what kind of storm surge we will see just to the right of that northern eyewall when dean makes landfall? Is it possible that one confined area could see a surge of 30+?

[secretforecaster]

Who would have thought the first hurricane of the season would be a historic storm.

Retirement is all but certain. I fear a substantial death toll in mexico.

what constitutes a name retirement by the NHC???

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/grounders/retirednames.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone care to take a early guess on what kind of storm surge we will see just to the right of that northern eyewall when dean makes landfall? Is it possible that one confined area could see a surge of 30+?

This is what Derek said a few posts back...

surge will likely be 10-12 feet of that... deep water offshore

However, 40-50 foot waves can be expected

[BensonTCwatcher]

Last wave data I saw was approaching 36 feet. Also this looks to put the N eyewall over a lot of swampy marsh. There are a lot of small villages on the inland side of the marshes without concrete resort type structures i.e. wood frame. Prayers go out to all in Deans path.

[Sanibel]

Taking a straightedge extrapolation our boy in Chetumal is going to be less than 10 miles from the southern eyewall of an intensifying category 5 monster historic hurricane. No exaggerations possible with this one.

The red IR "ring" is now a large red IR disc.

[Scorpion]

Anyone not in a sturdy concrete building will likely not survive

[Stratosphere747]

Taking a straightedge extrapolation our boy in Chetumal is going to be less than 10 miles from the southern eyewall of an intensifying category 5 monster historic hurricane. No exaggerations possible with this one.

The red IR "ring" is now a large red IR disc.

What is so spooky...

He is seeing no rain, and a nice breeze...

[marcane_1973]

Anyone care to take a early guess on what kind of storm surge we will see just to the right of that northern eyewall when dean makes landfall? Is it possible that one confined area could see a surge of 30+?

This is what Derek said a few posts back...

surge will likely be 10-12 feet of that... deep water offshore

However, 40-50 foot waves can be expected

So.... Are we talking about 40-50 ft waves on top of a surge as high as 12ft???

[CrazyC83]

Labor Day and Andrew. Both intensifying Cat 5's at landfall. Gilbert and Camille were not intensifying a landfall. Dean will be the third such storm in recorded history. Incredible.

The other Cat 5 to hit the Yucatan, Janet, was also intensifying up to landfall (it was 914mb while a Cat 4, so it probably was around 905mb at landfall as a Cat 5 at peak intensity).

[BensonTCwatcher]

The eye looks to be contracting as well. smaller now

[CrazyC83]

636
URNT15 KNHC 210434
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 09 20070821
042500 2412N 08717W 4099 07470 0459 -134 -334 119032 033 021 002 00
042530 2410N 08716W 4098 07470 0458 -130 -357 118035 035 023 001 00
042600 2407N 08715W 4098 07469 0458 -133 -349 118034 035 023 002 00
042630 2405N 08714W 4098 07469 0456 -135 -290 118033 033 022 000 00
042700 2403N 08713W 4099 07463 0455 -138 -289 116032 033 023 002 00
042730 2401N 08712W 4098 07466 0455 -135 -300 117035 036 024 004 00
042800 2358N 08711W 4099 07467 0455 -138 -289 115035 036 027 001 00
042830 2356N 08710W 4100 07467 0455 -140 -257 113034 034 025 001 00
042900 2354N 08709W 4099 07465 0454 -140 -327 111034 034 024 001 00
042930 2351N 08709W 4098 07464 0453 -140 -281 111034 034 023 001 00
043000 2349N 08708W 4099 07464 0455 -142 -257 112034 034 023 001 00
043030 2346N 08708W 4099 07468 0454 -141 -263 111034 034 023 003 00
043100 2344N 08708W 4098 07466 0454 -140 -297 112035 036 023 001 00
043130 2341N 08707W 4099 07466 0453 -139 -337 110036 036 021 002 00
043200 2339N 08707W 4099 07460 0451 -140 -323 110036 037 021 002 00
043230 2336N 08707W 4098 07464 0452 -140 -287 110035 035 021 002 00
043300 2334N 08706W 4099 07459 0451 -138 -285 110034 035 019 002 00
043330 2331N 08706W 4099 07458 0450 -135 -309 110035 035 018 003 00
043400 2329N 08706W 4098 07460 0448 -137 -309 108036 036 018 001 00
043430 2326N 08705W 4099 07458 0447 -137 -322 109036 037 015 002 00
$$

[Stratosphere747]

We are into the eclipse..

It's been about 40min since the latest image.

[CrazyC83]

Technically the lowest pressure for a Cat-4 was Wilma's 899 mb. Yep, that's right...

Now if Dean had peaked at 155mph, then it would have become the most intense storm never to reach Cat-5.

Wilma had an 894mb pressure at one point while Cat 4...

[FunkMasterB]

Cozumel and Cancun really dodged a bullet. This storm will absolutely destroy anything on the coast where it makes landfall. The small fishing village of Majahual will probably be wiped away. I really hope the Yucatan will take its toll on Dean so that he won't have much fight left upon second landfall. What a monster.

[Praxus]

Anyone care to take a early guess on what kind of storm surge we will see just to the right of that northern eyewall when dean makes landfall? Is it possible that one confined area could see a surge of 30+?

This is what Derek said a few posts back...

surge will likely be 10-12 feet of that... deep water offshore

However, 40-50 foot waves can be expected

So.... Are we talking about 40-50 ft waves on top of a surge as high as 12ft???

Forecast waves are typically on top of surge.

[Sanibel]

50 miles south of expected landfall in Belize. From Ambergris Caye Message Board:

from 8 til 10pm waves have doubled in size. thats from a view at the spindrift
the sign for bc's is underwater. thats about 10 feet away from the water


the dock south from bc's has fallen. the damage has started on Ambergris Caye, mainly on the eastern side, it is getting bettered right now by big waves


western side of the island, the water is rising pretty fast

That western side is from Bahia De Chetumal starting to drain out. They'll surge from the inland or bay side.

[Duddy]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Anyone else watching this!! OMG!!!! FREAKING AWESOME!!!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

323
URNT15 KNHC 210444
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 10 20070821
043500 2324N 08705W 4098 07457 0446 -137 -311 109038 038 014 002 00
043530 2321N 08705W 4100 07451 0444 -140 -289 107038 039 015 002 00
043600 2319N 08704W 4099 07455 0444 -140 -266 107039 039 015 002 00
043630 2316N 08704W 4098 07460 0444 -140 -239 107040 041 019 001 00
043700 2314N 08704W 4099 07453 0442 -138 -242 106040 040 015 002 00
043730 2311N 08703W 4099 07453 0440 -139 -241 105040 040 016 002 00
043800 2309N 08703W 4099 07450 0440 -135 -312 102041 041 014 003 00
043830 2306N 08702W 4096 07459 0440 -131 -266 106042 043 014 003 00
043900 2304N 08702W 4099 07452 0439 -131 -291 106043 044 011 002 00
043930 2301N 08702W 4099 07451 0440 -136 -253 105043 043 016 002 00
044000 2259N 08701W 4099 07451 0440 -135 -271 106044 044 013 003 00
044030 2256N 08701W 4099 07448 0442 -135 -246 107045 046 013 003 00
044100 2253N 08701W 4099 07451 0439 -135 -323 107045 046 008 003 00
044130 2251N 08700W 4098 07449 0438 -134 -318 105045 045 010 002 00
044200 2249N 08700W 4099 07447 0436 -133 -305 105046 047 008 003 00
044230 2246N 08700W 4098 07448 0436 -130 -324 106046 047 007 002 00
044300 2244N 08659W 4099 07444 0434 -130 -276 104045 046 006 002 00
044330 2241N 08659W 4098 07446 0434 -130 -273 103046 046 004 002 00
044400 2239N 08659W 4098 07445 0434 -132 -221 107046 047 008 002 00
044430 2236N 08658W 4099 07441 0434 -131 -152 110044 045 009 002 00
$$

Getting closer...

[kurtpage]

Aircraft is geting close...

Sorry for the horrible "paint" job....

[SunnyThoughts]

Duddy...where is that cam located...what city?