CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CronkPSU]

wow that would be 165 mph

[miamicanes177]

This is likely not the strongest winds...I expect something around 170-180mph possibly.

[Normandy]

Well obviously you should reject a pressure drop in a strengthening-appearing storm with weakening winds as bad data.

What? Bad Data?

They measured it LOL how is the data bad? If it doesn't have super spectacular winds of 180 mph, it just doesnt.

*SO FAR*
Southern eyewall produced 121 kt flight level....Using .85 that yields 118 mph. Using .9 it yields 125 mph.
Northern eyewall produced 156 kt flight level....Using .85 that yields 152 mph. Using .9 it yields 161 mph.

EDIT
SFMR indicated 144 kts in the Northern eyewall....165 mph.

[AJC3]

TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...CORRECTED DAY OF WEEK AND DATE IN HEADER...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF HURRICANE
DEAN IS NOW 909 MB...26.84 INCHES.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Sanibel]

909 Bingo!

165mph

Now we are getting the accurate readings. (Better passes)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

My site is currently carrying a live radar loop for Dean:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/temp/cancunradar/

It will end when Dean has left the radar.

[Coredesat]

URNT12 KNHC 210621
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/06:05:10Z
B. 18 deg 32 min N
086 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2306 m
D. 144 kt
E. 030 deg 012 nm
F. 103 deg 156 kt
G. 030 deg 012 nm
H. 909 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 23 C/ 3051 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 05:48:20 Z

Storm DEAN: Observed By Air Force #306
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 156KT (179.4mph 288.9km/h) In N Quadrant At 05:48:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 140.4KT (161.5mph 260.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Tuesday, August 21, 2007 2:05:00 AM (Tue, 21 Aug 2007 06:05:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 18° 32' N 086° 53' W (18.5°N 86.9°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2306m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 144KT (165.6MPH 266.7km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 12nm (13.8miles) From Center At Bearing 30°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 156KT (179.4mph 288.9km/h) From 103°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 12nm (13.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 30°
Minimum pressure: 909 mb (26.84in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 15nm (17.3 mi 27.8km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[typhoon_tim]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210626
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 20 20070821
061500 1757N 08654W 6968 02972 9823 +110 +110 285069 071 069 016 00
061530 1756N 08654W 6966 02985 9844 +092 +092 283075 079 072 040 05
061600 1754N 08654W 6984 02970 9990 +079 +999 272072 076 069 020 01
061630 1754N 08654W 6984 02970 9875 +085 +085 277069 071 067 020 05
061700 1750N 08654W 6969 03008 9881 +096 +096 276067 069 067 010 00
061730 1748N 08654W 6964 03020 9903 +086 +086 275066 070 064 010 00
061800 1747N 08653W 6964 03026 9903 +090 +090 277066 067 063 047 03
061830 1745N 08653W 6972 03024 9917 +085 +085 277062 066 999 999 03
061900 1743N 08653W 6967 03033 9927 +084 +084 272060 061 061 050 03
061930 1741N 08653W 6966 03041 9938 +081 +081 268058 058 059 034 03
062000 1740N 08653W 6969 03044 9942 +081 +081 268059 059 059 020 00
062030 1738N 08653W 6965 03054 9954 +078 +078 267058 059 058 009 00
062100 1736N 08653W 6967 03053 9952 +081 +081 267057 058 057 011 03
062130 1734N 08653W 6970 03054 9971 +071 +071 267056 056 056 050 03
062200 1733N 08653W 6966 03066 9971 +075 +075 267058 060 054 015 03
062230 1731N 08653W 6962 03071 9978 +073 +073 270057 060 052 032 03
062300 1729N 08653W 6975 03062 9969 +082 +082 272055 056 051 015 00
062330 1727N 08653W 6961 03084 9984 +074 +074 270055 057 050 010 03
062400 1726N 08653W 6965 03077 9998 +067 +067 270051 054 050 010 03
062430 1724N 08653W 6967 03082 0006 +065 +065 261054 056 050 043 03
$$

[Scorpion]

Those SFMR readings could be accurate.. for all we know the vertical wind profile could have changed

[wxmann_91]

Well obviously you should reject a pressure drop in a strengthening-appearing storm with weakening winds as bad data.

What? Bad Data?

They measured it LOL how is the data bad? If it doesn't have super spectacular winds of 180 mph, it just doesnt.

*SO FAR*
Southern eyewall produced 121 kt flight level....Using .85 that yields 118 mph. Using .9 it yields 125 mph.
Northern eyewall produced 156 kt flight level....Using .85 that yields 152 mph. Using .9 it yields 161 mph.

EDIT
SFMR indicated 144 kts in the Northern eyewall....165 mph.

Finally... a case where SFMR is greater than the reduction estimate.
That's what strong convection will do.

[Normandy]

Yes if that SFMR data is accurate the reduction would be like .93

Data still seems to indicate little increase in winds overall, however.

[Scorpion]

With the 144 kt SFMR reading and the earlier 162 kt reading this should be raised to 145 kt post-season and perhaps at landfall

[Coredesat]

[miamicanes177]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 210624
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
225 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF HURRICANE
DEAN IS NOW 909 MB...26.84 INCHES.


NHC keeping the records straight. Pressure now equal to Camille at landfall.

[ekal]

Yes if that SFMR data is accurate the reduction would be like .93

I thought it strange to be using .85 on such an intense hurricane. Did SFMR support that reduction earlier?

[CronkPSU]

still no new radar shots...UGH!!!

[wxmann_91]

The satellite is back. Seems like a double eyewall is forming, and the eastern quadrant is a bit squashed, but otherwise, the eye has continued warming.

[Coredesat]

URNT11 KNHC 210626
97779 06244 30173 86800 30400 26057 07079 /3047
RMK AF306 1504A DEAN OB 11
SWS = 049KTS

[Normandy]

Yes if that SFMR data is accurate the reduction would be like .93

I thought it strange to be using .85 on such an intense hurricane. Did SFMR support that reduction earlier?

Yes, up until this point SFMR did not indicate anything more than a .85 reduction. It had 155kt flight level winds before it hit Jamaica, but the NHC kept it at a Cat 4 due to the .85 reduction.

[Scorpion]

Lol.. the latest HWRF takes Dean to 888 mb before landfall