CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Scorpion

#11101 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:39 am

It has a few hours.. I think it could go sub 900
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11 PM page 299) Discussions, Analysis

#11102 Postby gotoman38 » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:39 am

I had a nice picnic anchored off Chinchorro once - I wonder how it is in the eye?
Image
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#11103 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:40 am

Reminder, live radar loop on my site:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/temp/cancunradar/
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#11104 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:43 am

NW wobble might spare Chetumal
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Coredesat

Re:

#11105 Postby Coredesat » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:44 am

Scorpion wrote:It has a few hours.. I think it could go sub 900


No, it doesn't have a few hours. Eye was on the coast 30 minutes ago:

Image
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11 PM page 299) Discussions, Analysis

#11106 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:44 am

Image
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Scorpion

#11107 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:45 am

I don't know.. Chetumal won't get a break with the eye so its possible it just gets straight Cat 3 winds for awhile.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11 PM page 299) Discussions, Analysis

#11108 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:46 am

Getting Raw T 7.2 ....when it was upgraded to cat 5 they were only at 6.5....unanimous support for winds between 165-175mph.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11 PM page 299) Discussions, Analysis

#11109 Postby marcane_1973 » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:47 am

Anyone noticed Dean has slowed down? Latest IR http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/8921 ... vvdsd4.jpg
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#11110 Postby typhoon_tim » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:47 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 210745
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 28 20070821
073500 1829N 08717W 6963 02729 9556 +109 +109 257093 096 088 018 00
073530 1827N 08717W 6964 02762 9569 +129 +127 253084 086 085 006 00
073600 1826N 08717W 6965 02784 9587 +138 +122 254076 079 082 003 00
073630 1824N 08717W 6965 02812 9614 +135 +123 255075 075 082 003 00
073700 1823N 08717W 6968 02826 9637 +134 +126 256070 072 077 003 00
073730 1821N 08717W 6965 02843 9653 +131 +125 256066 069 077 003 00
073800 1819N 08717W 6960 02868 9686 +122 +122 256065 067 077 002 00
073830 1818N 08717W 6969 02870 9711 +114 +114 258067 068 073 005 00
073900 1816N 08717W 6961 02891 9722 +115 +115 259064 065 072 005 00
073930 1815N 08717W 6963 02899 9734 +116 +116 261063 064 072 005 00
074000 1813N 08717W 6966 02908 9747 +112 +112 267061 062 071 008 00
074030 1811N 08717W 6969 02917 9768 +107 +107 273061 063 071 010 00
074100 1809N 08717W 6965 02931 9778 +107 +107 281063 065 068 011 03
074130 1807N 08717W 6971 02927 9803 +095 +095 288066 068 999 999 03
074200 1806N 08717W 6960 02953 9816 +092 +092 286068 070 999 999 03
074230 1804N 08717W 6955 02968 9831 +082 +082 285076 080 071 048 05
074300 1802N 08717W 6979 02949 9990 +077 +999 279073 077 071 018 01
074330 1800N 08717W 6963 02979 9990 +074 +999 278073 077 070 020 01
074400 1758N 08717W 6968 02986 9990 +074 +999 271070 072 070 024 01
074430 1757N 08717W 6963 02997 9990 +073 +999 270073 075 068 028 01
$$
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#11111 Postby typhoon_tim » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:47 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 210745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/07:31:00Z
B. 18 deg 41 min N
087 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2279 m
D. 124 kt
E. 017 deg 8 nm
F. 106 deg 160 kt
G. 017 deg 009 nm
H. 909 mb
I. 15 C/ 3055 m
J. 22 C/ 3054 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 160 KT N QUAD 07:28:10 Z
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#11112 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:48 am

"Just something to note. The southern eyewall is peaking at ~120KT FL winds. While the SFMR also peaks at ~120KT.

In the northern eyewall, there has been consistent 150s-160s FL winds and still just ~120KT SFMR. "

Post from Gkgrangers over at Easternwxus.
This is interesting as it might indicated that the reduction level for Dean *could* be 100% in some of the heaviest convection.

This means 160kt sustained winds are likely for short bursts in the northern eyewall.
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#11113 Postby lamsalfl » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:48 am

I'd love to see video of what it is like inside the eye of a hurricane. I've never seen pictures or video, but I've heard my whole life it is quiet and birds fly around.
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Scorpion

#11114 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:49 am

Wow.. that would mean total annihilation for anything in the path of those winds
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Coredesat

Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#11115 Postby Coredesat » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:49 am

Image

I will stop making maps after the next two sets of obs. I'm getting tired.
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Re:

#11116 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:50 am

Scorpion wrote:Wow.. that would mean total annihilation for anything in the path of those winds



Yes it would. However sustained winds like that prolly wouldn't last for more than one minute. The mean sustained wind in the northern eyewall of Dean seems to be 155 mph....with varied extended gusts up to 180 mph 60 min) and more intense bursts over 230 mph (less than 5-10 secs).

Also, chaser in Chetumal estimates winds outside to be sustained at 30 kts with 50 kt gusts.
Last edited by Normandy on Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#11117 Postby Starburst » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:51 am

lamsalfl wrote:I'd love to see video of what it is like inside the eye of a hurricane. I've never seen pictures or video, but I've heard my whole life it is quiet and birds fly around.


Go to http://www.hurricanehunters.com you can take a simulated flight with them inside of an eye :wink:
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Re: Re:

#11118 Postby Hockey007 » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:52 am

Normandy wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Wow.. that would mean total annihilation for anything in the path of those winds



Yes it would. However sustained winds like that prolly wouldn't last for more than one minute. The mean sustained wind in the northern eyewall of Dean seems to be 155 mph....with varied extended gusts up to 180 mph 60 min) and more intense bursts over 230 mph (less than 5-10 secs).

Also, chaser in Chetumal estimates winds outside to be sustained at 30 kts with 50 kt gusts.

Are the over 230's from ef5 tornados? cause that seems abnormally high.
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Scorpion

#11119 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:52 am

How is it possible that the extrap pressure is 6 mb lower than actual?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11 PM page 299) Discussions, Analysis

#11120 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:53 am

Image
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