Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[secretforecaster]

Dr. Lyons @ TWC just said he knows that people are concerned about another system after Dean, and it appears that nothing should be affecting the US any time soon.

[Sabanic]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WE SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SLIPS EAST FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. TEMPS ALSO MODERATE BY LATE
WEEK AS WELL. /05


So I am speculating that if something did move westward into the gulf it may be drawn more northward than Dean. Correct?

I would think so too.but STRONGLY Disagree with your Avatar

Now what is wrong with my Avatar. LOL

[Sabanic]

Dr. Lyons @ TWC just said he knows that people are concerned about another system after Dean, and it appears that nothing should be affecting the US any time soon.

Well I feel better now that the chief head from TWC has told us to not be concerned.

[tailgater]

Well, I was starting to think this Invest might have a good chance at developing, but 57 says it will be absorb into the ULL over the DR. I saw thay earlier but thought the wave would out race the ULL and the shear wouldn't be that bad since it's moving in the same direction as the shear.

[cpdaman]

well this won't be a hurricane , maybe we should root for it to quench some lawn's thirst

lyons says nothing to worry about wonder what JB say's he's prob. still "watching it"

thankyou wxman for the brief forecast

this board needs something to latch on to and this wave was that thing, however this morning it appears it will not deliver in any considerable way (can't see anything having time to form) if center is already passed 65 and the organization is as it is and now getting likely absorbed by a monster ULL has now dropped development to under 15% maybe less

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The ULL is there.

[Sjones]

Dr. Lyons @ TWC just said he knows that people are concerned about another system after Dean, and it appears that nothing should be affecting the US any time soon.

Well I feel better now that the chief head from TWC has told us to not be concerned.

Well looks like we will need to keep an even closer eye with that statement.

[otowntiger]

well this won't be a hurricane , maybe we should root for it to quench some lawn's thirst

lyons says nothing to worry about wonder what JB say's he's prob. still "watching it"

thankyou wxman for the brief forecast

this board needs something to latch on to and this wave was that thing, however this morning it appears it will not deliver in any considerable way (can't see anything having time to form) if center is already passed 65 and the organization is as it is and now getting likely absorbed by a monster ULL has now dropped development to under 15% maybe less

I agree. This thing is pretty much nothing. Barely any clouds left to it. I was hoping for some rain this weekend but if we get any, it won't be from this thing.

[hurricanetrack]

Gotta give serious credit to the global models on 92L. They showed this thing drying up right in front of our eyes and that is what happened. Perhaps the GFS is the model of choice this season- if it talks, we should listen. We'll see- there is a lot of hurricane season left to find out.

[tailgater]

well this won't be a hurricane , maybe we should root for it to quench some lawn's thirst

lyons says nothing to worry about wonder what JB say's he's prob. still "watching it"

thankyou wxman for the brief forecast

this board needs something to latch on to and this wave was that thing, however this morning it appears it will not deliver in any considerable way (can't see anything having time to form) if center is already passed 65 and the organization is as it is and now getting likely absorbed by a monster ULL has now dropped development to under 15% maybe less

I agree. This thing is pretty much nothing. Barely any clouds left to it. I was hoping for some rain this weekend but if we get any, it won't be from this thing.

It looks as organized as it did yesterday, probably more. I'd think you would get some rain out this one. Take a look at the CMC for about 84 hrs., then it gets a little wako.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Sjones]

Gotta give serious credit to the global models on 92L. They showed this thing drying up right in front of our eyes and that is what happened. Perhaps the GFS is the model of choice this season- if it talks, we should listen. We'll see- there is a lot of hurricane season left to find out.

I wouldn't be so quick to write this system off yet. Looks like it will develop, just slowly:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210305
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[O Town]

It looks as organized as it did yesterday, probably more. I'd think you would get some rain out this one. Take a look at the CMC for about 84 hrs., then it gets a little wako.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Hmmm, stalling in the big bend area and growing into a pretty strong hurricane. Interesting run of the CMC.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210925
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE DEAN...CENTERED JUST INLAND ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN


Development if any will be slow to occur.From the 10:30 PM to the 5:30 AM outlooks they downplayed the system.

[HURAKAN]

805 TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF
29N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 24.5N. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO
28N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND
63W...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W INCLUDING ON TOP
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ON TOP OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO BARBUDA.

[Blown Away]

92L Floater gone from NHC. Poof!

[cycloneye]

And invest gone from NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

A new thread has been made to continue the discussions,analysis,models and to post sat pics in Talking Tropics forum about this area.