CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Re: Cat3 Hurricane DEAN: 8 AM p319, discussions, analyses, sats

#11281 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 21, 2007 8:56 am

Code: Select all

Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank    Hurricane    Season        Min. pressure
1        Wilma         2005       882 mbar (hPa)
2        Gilbert          1988        888 mbar (hPa)
3       "Labor Day"       1935    892 mbar (hPa)
4        Rita           2005        895 mbar (hPa)
5        Allen          1980        899 mbar (hPa)
6        Katrina         2005      902 mbar (hPa)
7        Camille         1969      905 mbar (hPa)
       Mitch          1998       905 mbar (hPa)
9       Dean         2007     906 mbar (hPa)
10      Ivan                  2004      910 mbar (hPa)


The people working for Wikipedia are fast.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#11282 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:23 am

Well...looking back at the model verifications...it looks as if the NOGAPS scored an absolute COUP once it got a handle on Dean. It was pretty much spot on with the track across the Caribbean and into the Yucatan and across the southern BoC. The GFS was a close second. All in all...all the models did good...except the GFDL wanting to take it NW.
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Re: DEAN -Threat Area -Yucatan Peninsula-Belize-Mainland Mexico

#11283 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:33 am

From: "Blue XT~Sea Diving" <info at bluextseadiving.com>
Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2007 08:42:10 -0500

August 21, 2007, 8:30am local time



Cozumel survived the night with only some heavy TS force winds and rain. We lost power at 4:15am, but power loss is not island wide. From my upstairs balcony, I could still see lights in centro and along the waterfront even. I’m updating from a dial-up connection and battery power on my laptop.



From where I am, I see no evidence of downed power lines, trees, or anything serious…just a lot of debris in the streets. Of course, the other side of the island and the waterfront areas may have a tad bit more damage…when I can get out, I’ll report back on the rest of the island. We dodged a big one though!



My significant other and I spent a good portion of the evening on the phone with his family in Chetumal, and we have yet to reach or hear anything from his other sister who is in Valle Hermoso, which is not far inland from Mahajual and Felipe Carillo Puerto where the eye made direct landfall. As of this writing, the southern eye wall is just passing through, so they have several more hours of intense winds. This is their first hurricane in approximately 30 years, and they’re paying heavily. Just like we did during Wilma, they’ve been fighting to keep the water out of the house all night and are terrified and exhausted. I’ll give a status report when we next talk to our family in Chetumal.

Cozumel has seen the worst that we’re going to see of Mean Dean…now we can only pray for those who remain in his path.


http://stormcarib.com/

Another message,this one from Cozumel.Good news from there that nothing of significance happened.

Este mensaje es de Cozumel.Todo parece que paso bastante bien alli ya que el ojo paso bastante lejos al sur.
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Re: Cat3 Hurricane DEAN: 8 AM p319, discussions, analyses, sats

#11284 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:36 am

HURAKAN wrote:

Code: Select all

Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank    Hurricane    Season        Min. pressure
1        Wilma         2005       882 mbar (hPa)
2        Gilbert          1988        888 mbar (hPa)
3       "Labor Day"       1935    892 mbar (hPa)
4        Rita           2005        895 mbar (hPa)
5        Allen          1980        899 mbar (hPa)
6        Katrina         2005      902 mbar (hPa)
7        Camille         1969      905 mbar (hPa)
       Mitch          1998       905 mbar (hPa)
9       Dean         2007     906 mbar (hPa)
10      Ivan                  2004      910 mbar (hPa)



The people working for Wikipedia are fast.
Yeah. No kidding! I looked up Costa Maya this morning after reading the NHC discussion about landfall and Wikepedia already had on there that the area was hit by a category 5 hurricane at 3:37 am on 8/21/07. They mentioned the historical significance of the storm's strenghth, etc. They are really on the ball! Talk about up to the minute updates! Amazing!
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Re: Hurricane Dean Forecasts in AF

#11285 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:41 am

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Re: Hurricane DEAN Advisories & Official Forecast Maps

#11286 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:46 am

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 88.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 89.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




393
WTNT34 KNHC 211443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...DEAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO
8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.0N 89.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#11287 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:50 am

the landfall tomorrow mroning should be the worst of the landfalls.

Anyone living there needs to take this storm very seriously
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#11288 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:54 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...DEAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO
8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
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Re: DEAN -Threat Area -Yucatan Peninsula-Belize-Mainland Mexico

#11289 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:56 am

AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.


El Gobierno de Belice cambio de aviso de Huracan a aviso de tormenta tropical.

El gobierno de Mejico extendio el aviso de Huracan ahora se extiende desde Veracruz hasta Tampico.

El Gobierno de Mejico tiene ahora un aviso de tormenta tropical desde Tampico hasta la Pesca.
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Re: Cat3 Hurricane DEAN: 8 AM p319, discussions, analyses, sats

#11290 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:57 am

HURAKAN wrote:
The people working for Wikipedia are fast.


Wikipedia is updated by the general public. That's why it's so fast to be updated.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#11291 Postby msbee » Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:06 am

do you have a link?
The hotels on the North shore did fine and will be in business right away.
even businesses in Kingston will probably snap back soon.
it's the small villages where the poorer people live. They are they ones who get hit hardest and it won't be so easy for them to snap back.
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Re: Cat3 Hurricane DEAN: 8 AM p319, discussions, analyses, sats

#11292 Postby mempho » Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:13 am

gtalum wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
The people working for Wikipedia are fast.


Wikipedia is updated by the general public. That's why it's so fast to be updated.


Yeh, it's like a race to most people. The regulars get mean though if some anonymous user beats them to the update, though.
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Re: Cat2 Hurricane DEAN: 10 AM p320, discussions, analyses, sats

#11293 Postby Downdraft » Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:19 am

I'd be more inclined to go with Derek's view on Dean now. The storm surge it's going to generate in the Bay will be Dean's second biggest story.
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Re: Cat2 Hurricane DEAN: 10 AM p320, discussions, analyses, sats

#11294 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:43 am

I'm thinking 4.5 hours to re-emergence back over water.

With each 1/2 hour Dean will get more of its west side back over warm waters.

Good to hear preliminary reports that Dean's south side over Belize was not as bad as Hurricane Keith 7 years ago. I suspect we will get further stories to come though.

The surface wind estimate readings were weak last night. After getting a measure of only 124KT while Dean was at its 906 pressure peak they dropped a dropsonde that then caught a 205mph wind in the last 500 feet before the surface. I think they were missing the worst winds in their estimate readings.
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Re:

#11295 Postby mempho » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:00 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the landfall tomorrow mroning should be the worst of the landfalls.

Anyone living there needs to take this storm very seriously


Surge problems in the BOC?
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Re: Cat3 Hurricane DEAN: 8 AM p319, discussions, analyses, sats

#11296 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:40 am

gtalum wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
The people working for Wikipedia are fast.


Wikipedia is updated by the general public. That's why it's so fast to be updated.


I didn't realize that. Now I guess I should not take it for granted that its always correct, if just anybody can do the updating without some kind of oversite.
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Re: Cat3 Hurricane DEAN: 8 AM p319, discussions, analyses, sats

#11297 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:49 am

otowntiger wrote:
gtalum wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
The people working for Wikipedia are fast.


Wikipedia is updated by the general public. That's why it's so fast to be updated.


I didn't realize that. Now I guess I should not take it for granted that its always correct, if just anybody can do the updating without some kind of oversite.


If there is something good about it is that since there are a lot of people doing the changes, if someones sees something wrong they would most likely fix it.

So far I have read a lot about past hurricanes in Wikipedia and everything seems to be pretty accurate. Most of the stuff I have read I was able to compare it with previous readings.

I have only found an error, when I was reading an article in which the Leeward islands were confused with the Windward islands, and I fixed it.
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Re: Cat2 Hurricane DEAN: 10 AM p320, discussions, analyses, sats

#11298 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:55 am

Looks to be headed close to Veracruz.
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#11299 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:56 am

Image

Not far from waterfall!!!

If from water to land is landfall, then from land to water has to be waterfall.
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Re: Cat2 Hurricane DEAN: 10 AM p320, discussions, analyses, sats

#11300 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:23 pm

The inner core is still very well organized, luckily it only has about 18 hours back over water.
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