CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

it was brought up at today's HRD map discussion that TCs often undergo RI in the southern BOC due to increased LLC. Something to watch for

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The EURO nailed it as well! The GFDL choked as i expected.

[Zardoz]

From The Oil Drum website:



Dean is on track to slice right through the middle of Mexico's big Cantarell offshore oil field. If it's down to Cat 1 or 2 through there, the rigs will handle it pretty well. If it somehow spins up to major intensity in that short span between the coast and the field, look out. We know what Katrina and Rita did to the rigs off Texas and Louisiana.

[hiflyer]

ATCSCC ADVZY 036 DCC 08/21/2007 CARIBBEAN HURRICANE "DEAN" TELCON_FYI

MESSAGE:


IMPACTED AREA: CUBA, JAMAICA, CAYMAN ISLANDS, MEXICO'S YUCATAN
PENINSULA, BELIZE
1. HURRICANE DEAN
PUBLIC ADVISORY - HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
LOCATION - INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WNW
TOWARDS CENTRAL SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
- HURRICANE WARNING: COASTINE OF BELIZE, ENTIRE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO SOUTH AND WEST TO VERACRUZ.
ROUTE CLOSURES - NONE
JAMAICA - KINSTON AIRPORT (MKJP) OPEN.

CAYMAN ISLANDS - GERRARD SMITH (MWCB) OPEN
MEXICO - CANCUN (MMUN) OPEN
- COZUMEL (MMCZ) CLOSED UPDATE 1800Z.
- CHETUMAL (MMCM) CLOSED UPDATE 2100Z.

BELIZE - AIRPORT CLOSED UPDATE 1500Z

ARPT CLOSURES - REFER TO INTERNATIONAL NOTAMS FOR LATEST UPDATES

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...DEAN ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

AT 2 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND HAS ALSO
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CANCUN TO PROGRESO.

AT 2PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO
LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DEAN ENTERS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO
8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Brent]

Down to 85 at 1pm.

[wxmann_91]

All the globals did well except the CMC... the GFS, Euro, NOGAPS, and even the UKMET performed okay after Dean got near Jamaica.

The hurricane models...
sucked.

Not really a surprise since the globals resolve synoptic features better. This one really had Mexico painted all over once the models latched on to the ridge building back behind the ULL.

[CrazyC83]

If its pressure is 960, won't the winds quickly catch up to the pressure once back over water? That typically has winds around 115 mph when it is over water...

[wxwatcher91]

Pressure still at 960mb though.

[hiflyer]

looks like the eye is starting to sniff warm water now on it's west edge near the town of Champoton...small fishing and shrimping town on the bay..after crossing about 220 miles of land and now has about 365 miles of water ahead....Veracruz..then hills and then mountains to 7500 feet and Puebla and Mexico City.

[Sanibel]

960 and very good structure.

Is there any Mexican radar of this?

[CrazyC83]

960 and very good structure.

Should go into rapid deepening this evening...

[JtSmarts]

Is there any information on how Chetumal fared yet??

[thunderchief]

Any damage photos? This hurricane should have had some of the strongest winds at landfall ever...

[CrazyC83]

Okay, so how strong were the official winds and pressure with landfall?

165 mph, 906 mb. But we will have to wait for the Post-season report to get the most accurate information.

My guess is the actual landfall intensity was 175 mph. The pressure is probably correct as it took place right before landfall.

[Sanibel]

Has to be at least 170mph. Corresponds to pressure and 205mph reading near surface in eyewall. But these things can be weird. Damage wasn't as bad as expected to south in Belize. Too early to tell. What chills me is the casual tone some of the message board people have down there. If it struck 50 miles further south many of them wouldn't be around.

[cycloneye]

A piece of good news from Chetumal is that one radio station is reporting plenty of damage but no deaths haved been reported in Chetumal.But still there is little information from Mayas.Campeche is an area of preocupation for the authorities.

http://www.sol899.com/

Buenas noticias desde Chetumal y es que ninguna muerte se ha reportado alli.Pero hay poca communicacion con Mayas.Hay preocupacion con Campeche.

[mempho]

Probably not. The media usually jumps to the next story before the real damage zones can be accessed. I'm sure we'll be able to see a few on the internet, though.

[cycloneye]

More good news,as already the help is on the way to Mayas and Chetumal as tons of food,medicine etc from Cozumel,Playa del Carmen and from Mexico City are rolling to those places.

La ayuda estara llegando desee muchos puntos de Mejico pera la primera sera desde Cozumel y Playa del Carmen.

[RL3AO]

The people working for Wikipedia are fast.

Wikipedia is updated by the general public. That's why it's so fast to be updated.

I didn't realize that. Now I guess I should not take it for granted that its always correct, if just anybody can do the updating without some kind of oversite.

We have a project that deals just with tropical cyclones so those articles should be accurate. But there can be errors as we found one in Andrew's article last night.