CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

310
WTNT34 KNHC 212339
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...DEAN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AIR FORCE PLANE APPROACHING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN YUCATAN WILL BE GRADUALLY DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO
LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555
KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR
THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING DEAN. SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555
KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

[whereverwx]

Here's a sunset image of Dean over the Bay of Campeche.

[msbee]

I was asking that too..in another thread on the subject.
No one answered me.

[tallywx]

Looks like the Yucatan broadened and disrupted Dean's core. He looks very similar to Georges after emerging off of Hispanola/Cuba. It seems the maximum strength that storms with ripped-up cores can subsequently attain, no matter how favorable other conditions may be, is 110-120 mph (Georges over the Gulf, Wilma into SE FL, Jeanne after upwelling).

[Derek Ortt]

Jeanne only peaked at 105KT because it did an EWRC 6 hours before landfall. It was well on its way to becoming a cat 4 or 5 storm (it actually chased me off of the Rickenbacker when the T6.5/6.5 came in)

[Derek Ortt]

The news is of some concern to me that there may have been severe damage based upon the amount of relief that is heading that way

[JtSmarts]

Derek, wasn't Wilma getting close to Cat 4 strength before landfall also? I remember that recon was finding some very strong FLV winds right before she made landfall.

[mf_dolphin]

Hopefully someone will run across good news and post it here. Keeping a prayer going until then....

[Derek Ortt]

problems with the HDOBS for tonight's mission from the AF

[Derek Ortt]

the winds in Wilma were mesovortex related, though it did approach cat 4 briefly. Thankfully those did not persist

[HenkL]

But we do have a dropsonde:

UZNT13 KNHC 212334
XXAA 71234 99279 70900 08270 99015 29442 08517 00134 28238 09017
92824 23450 10020 85557 18640 10018 70202 11672 11024 50593 04173
11023 40765 15376 13533 88999 77999
31313 09608 82316
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 02
62626 SPL 2790N09009W 2325 MBL WND 09018 AEV 20364 DLM WND 11021
014401 WL150 09017 082 =
XXBB 71238 99279 70900 08270 00015 29442 11850 18640 22790 15859
33762 13450 44748 13460 55735 13058 66716 12262 77708 12272 88660
09476 99637 07269 11630 06662 22624 06468 33573 02481 44485 05575
55465 07778 66459 08567 77452 09181 88404 14575 99392 17177
21212 00015 08517 11953 09520 22850 10018 33633 12020 44604 11022
55542 11529 66513 09527 77435 14028 88392 13029
31313 09608 82316
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 02
62626 SPL 2790N09009W 2325 MBL WND 09018 AEV 20364 DLM WND 11021
014401 WL150 09017 082 =

[Tstormwatcher]

These are from AP on my Dell homepage. http://apnews.myway.com//article/20070821/D8R5NNP00.html

[Stephanie]

They probably were prepared and ready to go as soon as the storm moved through.

On TWC this morning, Jim Cantore said that the military helped to evacuate people from Chetumal and just about everyone left. That was GREAT news to hear. Hopefully, there won't be any reports of deaths.

[Derek Ortt]

viewforum.php?f=29

#20

[Ptarmigan]

Dean is now one of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record and is third most intense in terms of landfall, only 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Gilbert in 1988.

[Ptarmigan]

Jeanne only peaked at 105KT because it did an EWRC 6 hours before landfall. It was well on its way to becoming a cat 4 or 5 storm (it actually chased me off of the Rickenbacker when the T6.5/6.5 came in)

Interesting. I never thought Jeanne was capable of getting stronger. Had Jeanne completed EWRC, it could of been really bad for Florida, especially after Frances was over them.

[Ptarmigan]

That's right. It's a good place to do some initial research, but it's not an authoritative source. I think they do have a small staff that does some factual checking, but you should never consider Wikipedia to be authoritative.

Yeah. The only thing I use Wikipedia for is technology, animals, and pop culture.

[lrak]

That's right. It's a good place to do some initial research, but it's not an authoritative source. I think they do have a small staff that does some factual checking, but you should never consider Wikipedia to be authoritative.

Yeah. The only thing I use Wikipedia for is technology, animals, and pop culture.

maybe animals.

[lrak]

how big is that eye going to get?