CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220230
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 25 20070822
022030 1833N 09144W 6964 03127 0034 +079 +079 200056 056 032 009 00
022100 1834N 09146W 6967 03123 0028 +082 +082 199055 055 032 009 00
022130 1836N 09147W 6963 03126 0025 +084 +084 200054 054 034 010 00
022200 1837N 09149W 6963 03121 0025 +080 +080 199053 054 033 033 03
022230 1839N 09150W 6968 03114 0027 +077 +077 198052 053 999 999 03
022300 1840N 09152W 6963 03120 0017 +085 +085 200055 056 072 019 00
022330 1841N 09153W 6964 03117 0015 +085 +085 203056 056 036 010 03
022400 1843N 09154W 6967 03111 0013 +083 +083 202056 057 035 018 00
022430 1844N 09156W 6963 03111 0016 +079 +079 206059 060 035 010 03
022500 1844N 09158W 6963 03109 0009 +081 +081 211056 057 036 010 00
022530 1845N 09159W 6961 03105 0002 +081 +081 212053 054 035 009 00
022600 1845N 09201W 6965 03096 9991 +085 +085 217052 053 036 035 03
022630 1845N 09202W 6963 03096 9977 +091 +091 215052 052 036 009 00
022700 1845N 09204W 6964 03087 9971 +094 +093 210051 053 036 007 03
022730 1846N 09205W 6960 03091 9976 +091 +089 207052 054 038 007 03
022800 1848N 09207W 6967 03081 9988 +081 +081 208056 058 039 008 00
022830 1850N 09208W 6963 03082 9987 +075 +075 208059 060 041 009 03
022900 1852N 09209W 6971 03074 9988 +074 +074 213060 061 044 031 03
022930 1853N 09210W 6966 03075 9983 +075 +075 208058 059 999 999 03
023000 1855N 09211W 6967 03070 9999 +058 +058 209059 061 050 017 03
$$

[wxman57]

if that clearing area is an eye re-forming, that's one big eye in proportion to the storm!

It's a missing core more than a big eye. Hard to consolidate in less than 12 hours.

[lrak]

and that big fat eye is at like 22latitude aready.

[wxman57]

and that big fat eye is at like 22latitude aready.

Only 19.9 latitude.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

this buoy is at 22 latitude and has NE winds? Shouldn't they be East according to the forecast tracks?

[cycloneye]

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PROGRESO SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO BAHIA
ALGODONES.

El gobierno de Mejico descontinuo el aviso de huracan desde Progresso hasta Campeche.Se mantiene el aviso de huracan desde la costa del golfo de Mejico desde el sur de Campeche hacia el oeste hasta Tampico.

El gobierno de Mejico extiende el aviso de tormenta tropical hacia el norte de Tampico hasta bahia de algodones.

[lrak]

and that big fat eye is at like 22latitude aready.

Only 19.9 latitude.

whoops miscounted id say 20.5

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220240
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 26 20070822
023030 1857N 09212W 6966 03071 9970 +078 +078 232062 063 053 037 03
023100 1858N 09213W 6965 03062 9941 +094 +094 228060 060 053 010 00
023130 1900N 09213W 6965 03059 9935 +096 +096 229061 062 052 010 00
023200 1902N 09214W 6970 03049 9933 +093 +093 231063 065 052 038 03
023230 1903N 09215W 6963 03051 9932 +088 +088 229063 064 047 057 03
023300 1904N 09217W 6966 03046 9939 +083 +083 229062 063 051 019 03
023330 1905N 09218W 6966 03042 9990 +070 +999 234061 063 054 027 01
023400 1907N 09219W 6964 03041 9990 +067 +999 235067 067 055 024 01
023430 1908N 09220W 6957 03048 9934 +079 +079 235058 063 056 019 01
023500 1909N 09222W 6958 03048 9990 +078 +999 228051 053 057 018 01
023530 1910N 09223W 6975 03026 9917 +090 +090 226041 044 057 017 03
023600 1911N 09224W 6964 03036 9900 +102 +102 231039 040 055 043 03
023630 1913N 09225W 6965 03034 9885 +113 +113 228038 039 054 009 00
023700 1914N 09227W 6962 03038 9895 +104 +104 227038 039 053 017 03
023730 1915N 09228W 6962 03032 9876 +116 +116 227036 039 056 037 03
023800 1916N 09229W 6964 03030 9876 +115 +115 228042 043 051 007 00
023830 1918N 09231W 6965 03025 9874 +115 +103 232042 042 043 005 00
023900 1919N 09232W 6964 03023 9870 +116 +104 232041 041 040 005 00
023930 1920N 09233W 6964 03020 9870 +110 +107 234043 043 034 005 00
024000 1921N 09235W 6963 03018 9865 +113 +102 235044 044 029 005 00
$$

67 knots flight-level maximum; 57 knots SFMR maximum.

[Sanibel]

Like Wilma's eye post Yucatan.

[lrak]

Like Wilma's eye post Yucatan.

its going west into Mexico forever and ever. The swell advisories for S Tex are aweSOME! 13Ft!

[MGC]

Reminds me of Isadore after sitting on the Yucatan and then moving N into Louisiana. Central core was disrupted and it never got it back together. Most I think Dean will recover to is weak Cat-2 at best.....MGC

[dwsqos2]

URNT15 KNHC 220250
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 27 20070822
024030 1922N 09236W 6967 03009 9861 +115 +103 233041 044 026 005 00
024100 1924N 09237W 6971 03003 9854 +119 +098 234037 038 024 005 00
024130 1925N 09238W 6964 03007 9852 +117 +101 233039 039 023 005 00
024200 1926N 09240W 6964 03004 9855 +111 +103 232037 038 023 005 00
024230 1927N 09241W 6966 03001 9846 +115 +108 235033 034 023 004 00
024300 1929N 09242W 6965 02998 9843 +115 +108 235032 033 021 005 00
024330 1930N 09244W 6964 02996 9841 +112 +106 236033 034 022 004 00
024400 1931N 09245W 6963 02993 9836 +115 +103 237033 034 021 004 00
024430 1932N 09246W 6967 02985 9830 +119 +096 240030 030 021 005 03
024500 1934N 09247W 6964 02983 9826 +115 +092 241031 031 022 005 00
024530 1935N 09248W 6964 02979 9824 +112 +096 241030 031 021 005 00
024600 1937N 09249W 6963 02975 9820 +110 +110 240025 027 023 007 00
024630 1938N 09250W 6964 02969 9808 +118 +113 240022 022 024 006 00
024700 1940N 09251W 6967 02963 9802 +120 +109 235023 024 024 006 00
024730 1941N 09253W 6967 02959 9798 +119 +115 235019 020 021 006 00
024800 1943N 09254W 6965 02958 9795 +118 +118 237017 018 021 008 00
024830 1944N 09255W 6964 02957 9816 +101 +101 248010 011 021 008 00
024900 1945N 09256W 6963 02958 9785 +123 +120 279010 011 017 006 03
024930 1947N 09257W 6966 02953 9780 +126 +121 291006 009 003 005 03
025000 1949N 09257W 6963 02951 9775 +127 +117 316006 007 000 006 00
$$

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 977.5 mb.

[LSU2001]

Hey MGC,
Whats up?
Just wanted to say that a weak cat 2 is still pretty bad in my book

Hope that Dean does not tighten up like Wilma did and surprise Northern Mexico with some very strong winds.
I seem to remember folks talking about the differences between a weakening storm and and a strengthening one. It seems to me that Dean may try to get back together and begin a strengthening phase before final landfall.
JMHO,
Tim

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220300
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 28 20070822
025030 1951N 09257W 6965 02945 9771 +126 +116 016006 007 000 005 00
025100 1952N 09257W 6967 02941 9783 +123 +110 045012 017 000 005 03
025130 1954N 09259W 6967 02944 9773 +126 +114 047019 021 014 005 00
025200 1955N 09300W 6961 02951 9772 +126 +113 046024 028 022 005 00
025230 1956N 09301W 6968 02946 9776 +128 +110 046032 034 027 006 00
025300 1957N 09303W 6956 02963 9785 +116 +116 047032 035 034 009 00
025330 1959N 09304W 6969 02949 9793 +114 +114 050038 042 037 017 00
025400 2000N 09305W 6959 02972 9990 +095 +999 053043 044 039 010 05
025430 2001N 09307W 6961 02963 9801 +113 +113 060042 042 039 017 00
025500 2002N 09308W 6968 02963 9804 +119 +119 056043 044 038 005 00
025530 2004N 09310W 6963 02974 9807 +119 +116 057048 049 040 005 00
025600 2005N 09311W 6961 02978 9815 +117 +113 060051 051 041 006 00
025630 2006N 09312W 6971 02970 9824 +112 +112 061051 052 040 004 00
025700 2008N 09314W 6965 02984 9828 +113 +113 061050 051 040 004 00
025730 2008N 09314W 6965 02984 9826 +119 +107 062050 051 042 004 00
025800 2010N 09317W 6964 02994 9829 +122 +104 063053 054 046 005 00
025830 2012N 09318W 6967 02994 9833 +121 +105 064054 054 048 005 00
025900 2013N 09320W 6967 02997 9841 +120 +104 062053 054 050 005 00
025930 2014N 09321W 6961 03008 9843 +120 +103 062053 054 051 004 00
030000 2016N 09323W 6963 03008 9846 +122 +099 064053 054 053 004 00
$$

54 knots flight-level maximum; 53 knots SFMR maximum; minimum extrapolated pressure 977.1 mb.

[Derek Ortt]

Gert struck Tampico in 1993 as a cat 2 and left half the town under mud

This seems as if it will be similar to Gert when it crosses the coast tomorrow

[srainhoutx]

Gert struck Tampico in 1993 as a cat 2 and left half the town under mud

This seems as if it will be similar to Gert when it crosses the coast tomorrow

I agree Derrek. Gert did terrible damage to Tampica. Large population too. Monterrey was affected also if I remember correctly.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220310
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 29 20070822
030030 2017N 09324W 6964 03011 9846 +125 +093 065054 054 054 005 00
030100 2018N 09326W 6965 03014 9854 +122 +096 062051 052 055 004 00
030130 2020N 09327W 6963 03018 9855 +124 +095 062052 053 056 005 00
030200 2021N 09328W 6964 03019 9860 +121 +098 062052 052 055 004 00
030230 2022N 09330W 6967 03018 9862 +121 +097 060050 051 055 005 00
030300 2024N 09331W 6963 03024 9868 +119 +098 062051 052 056 004 00
030330 2025N 09333W 6963 03028 9871 +116 +101 062054 054 056 004 00
030400 2026N 09334W 6969 03024 9874 +118 +102 062054 054 056 004 00
030430 2028N 09336W 6963 03035 9880 +118 +098 063054 054 055 005 00
030500 2029N 09337W 6964 03036 9884 +116 +092 062055 056 054 005 00
030530 2030N 09339W 6961 03041 9892 +108 +105 061055 057 053 006 00
030600 2032N 09340W 6955 03056 9908 +102 +102 062058 058 053 007 00
030630 2033N 09342W 6964 03048 9911 +103 +103 061058 059 054 007 00
030700 2035N 09343W 6965 03050 9910 +108 +108 057060 061 053 005 00
030730 2036N 09345W 6953 03068 9912 +112 +086 057059 059 051 004 00
030800 2038N 09347W 6964 03062 9924 +108 +091 058060 060 050 005 00
030830 2039N 09349W 6963 03064 9924 +108 +101 059061 061 049 005 00
030900 2041N 09350W 6961 03072 9932 +102 +102 058063 064 049 005 00
030930 2042N 09352W 6965 03069 9938 +102 +102 057062 063 047 004 00
031000 2044N 09354W 6965 03074 9946 +100 +100 060064 066 050 004 00
$$


66 knots maximum at flight-level; 56 knots SFMR maximum.

[dwsqos2]

VDM...

000
URNT12 KNHC 220310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 22/02:50:10Z
B. 19 deg 49 min N
092 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2906 m
D. 57 kt
E. 139 deg 52 nm
F. 237 deg 067 kt
G. 139 deg 055 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 10 C/ 3043 m
J. 13 C/ 3055 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 1604A DEAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 00:57:30 Z


Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220310
XXAA 72037 99198 70929 04692 99979 27626 36010 00688 ///// /////
92503 24218 35007 85242 20213 01012 70905 13210 35507 88999 77999
31313 09608 80250
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 1982N09295W 0254 MBL WND 36008 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 72038 99198 70929 04692 00979 27626 11850 20213 22800 18832
33706 14415 44697 12407
21212 00979 36010 11920 35007 22850 01012 33697 35507
31313 09608 80250
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 1982N09295W 0254 MBL WND 36008 AEV 00000 =

979 mb; 10 knots at the surface.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220320
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 30 20070822
031030 2046N 09356W 6962 03084 9945 +108 +090 060064 064 047 002 00
031100 2047N 09357W 6971 03080 9960 +103 +090 058065 066 046 005 00
031130 2049N 09359W 6956 03102 9969 +099 +090 059067 068 048 003 00
031200 2050N 09401W 6960 03101 9974 +097 +095 060066 067 045 004 00
031230 2052N 09403W 6975 03085 9978 +096 +096 061064 065 044 004 00
031300 2053N 09404W 6961 03104 9979 +100 +082 063066 066 042 005 00
031330 2055N 09406W 6967 03102 9982 +099 +086 065065 066 043 005 00
031400 2056N 09408W 6964 03108 9987 +100 +089 065064 065 039 004 00
031430 2058N 09410W 6965 03109 9986 +101 +084 064064 065 040 006 00
031500 2100N 09411W 6965 03113 9993 +098 +089 064060 061 038 006 00
031530 2101N 09413W 6965 03115 0000 +095 +091 064061 061 035 004 00
031600 2103N 09415W 6964 03117 0001 +095 +093 064061 062 032 004 00
031630 2104N 09416W 6965 03118 0005 +093 +093 064058 059 030 004 00
031700 2106N 09418W 6972 03112 0007 +094 +094 062058 059 031 004 00
031730 2107N 09420W 6969 03112 0000 +096 +094 060057 058 029 004 03
031800 2107N 09422W 6960 03125 0004 +093 +093 059057 059 999 999 03
031830 2106N 09423W 6962 03120 0006 +091 +091 056055 056 016 006 03
031900 2104N 09423W 6965 03108 0001 +090 +090 055056 057 034 005 03
031930 2102N 09423W 6967 03109 0004 +092 +092 056056 057 035 004 00
032000 2100N 09423W 6968 03111 9997 +096 +090 055055 055 035 005 00
$$

67 knots flight-level maximum; 48 knots SFMR maximum.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220330
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 31 20070822
032030 2057N 09424W 6963 03117 9993 +097 +094 055055 055 035 005 00
032100 2055N 09424W 6961 03114 9995 +094 +094 053056 057 037 004 00
032130 2053N 09424W 6970 03103 9995 +095 +095 049054 055 038 004 00
032200 2051N 09425W 6963 03111 9990 +096 +096 052054 055 038 005 00
032230 2049N 09425W 6954 03123 9990 +097 +091 049055 055 038 004 00
032300 2047N 09425W 6967 03108 9991 +096 +094 046054 055 041 004 00
032330 2044N 09426W 6965 03107 9991 +095 +095 044054 054 042 003 00
032400 2042N 09426W 6960 03112 9992 +094 +094 042055 056 041 004 00
032430 2039N 09427W 6965 03106 9992 +094 +094 039055 057 041 004 00
032500 2037N 09427W 6963 03107 9984 +097 +096 038051 052 042 004 00
032530 2034N 09428W 6963 03106 9976 +102 +085 039049 050 042 003 00
032600 2032N 09428W 6964 03102 9975 +104 +085 038052 053 042 004 00
032630 2030N 09428W 6965 03098 9979 +096 +090 037056 057 041 004 00
032700 2027N 09429W 6964 03099 9980 +097 +091 033054 055 043 004 00
032730 2025N 09429W 6966 03097 9981 +094 +094 033056 056 042 004 00
032800 2022N 09430W 6963 03098 9981 +094 +094 031058 058 043 004 00
032830 2020N 09430W 6964 03098 9980 +095 +095 031058 059 043 005 00
032900 2017N 09431W 6964 03096 9977 +095 +095 030057 057 043 004 00
032930 2015N 09431W 6965 03093 9971 +097 +097 027057 057 042 005 00
033000 2012N 09431W 6965 03092 9968 +101 +091 026055 056 046 006 00
$$