Katrina Anniversary Thread

[Category 5]

A historic storm was born.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

CORRECTED WARNING SECTION

...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND
...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN


TD 12 eventually became Hurricane Katrina.

[Sjones]

A historic storm was born.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

CORRECTED WARNING SECTION

...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND
...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

In about the same location as 92L was/is now.

[Ixolib]

Hmmmmm.... Yes, but didn't TD12 develop from the remenents of TD10 - a couple of times over?????

[HURAKAN]

A storm of castatrophic proportions. I think Katrina, just like 9/11, and many other previous events that severely affected the US, changed America. A hurricane that left a mark that wouldn't be easily toppled.

[Category 5]

and really, it seems like just yesterday looking at 175mph on the TV screen.

[beachbyrd]

My daughter was born on 8/31/05 (due 9/5) here in S. FL--we lived in Plantation at the time. We almost had to evacuate to the hospital during Katrina, but the hospital decided last minute only high risk pregnancies needed to be there. It was very strange feeling so much joy about her birth during the devastation that had just occurred in the Gulf. I had so many mixed feelings at the time. It was all very surreal. I am sure she will have questions about Katrina when she is older and reads the national headlines of the day in her baby book.

I heard that there were babies born when Katrina passed over S. FL, named Katrina. I am sure their parents regretted that when Katrina did what she did a few days later.....My daughter's name is Jenna, definitely not Katrina!

[windstorm99]

Here are some pics of the storm that caught many in south florida by surprise.

One big lesson for folks with katrina is never focus on that black line.



Reaching hurricane strength right before moving onshore.



The worst of katrina right over me.

[wsquared77]

We were definitely caught a little off gurad by Katrina and the flooding we had from her the day after. Of course, I still feel guilty even talking about the relatively small effects we experienced compared to what then occured in the Gulf.

[Scorpion]

Wow, just like yesterday. Waking up to the words "Hurricane Katrina revs up to 175 mph" was a pretty big jolt.

[wiggles]

That is one experience I don't ever want to go through again. The hardest thing I had to do was drive away from my home in Slidell, LA knowing there was a good chance I would come back to nothing. 90% of the buildings and homes were damaged. It was almost a week before we heard any news from the officials from that parish. The not knowing is the hardest thing. I would not wish a storm like Katrina on my worst enemy.

[Ptarmigan]

The monster and was born and 6 days later, it wreaks havoc on the Gulf Coast.

[Ptarmigan]

Here are some pics of the storm that caught many in south florida by surprise.

One big lesson for folks with katrina is never focus on that black line.



Reaching hurricane strength right before moving onshore.



The worst of katrina right over me.

It's hard to comprehend how this blob of swirling clouds over Florida grew into a monster.

[killah]

Katrina according to the Army Corp of Engineers was a 396 year storm event. Here is a tease of the article... I can't believe to this day I was less then 20 miles from the western eye wall. I had never ever seen so many trees down. It looked like pictures from the Tunguska Event but it was in front of my eyes.

http://blog.nola.com/updates/2007/08/ne ... ction.html

Using a variety of factors, corps scientists and engineers devised a set of 152 storms of varying sizes, wind speeds and storm surges, with chances of hitting the area ranging from 1-in-50 years to 1-in-5,000 years. Each of the storms was run at the coastline around New Orleans from different directions.

The models indicated that Hurricane Katrina -- with Category 3 wind speed at landfall, and Category 5 central pressure and storm surge heights -- was a 396-year storm.

Hurricane Rita, which destroyed waterfront communities in Cameron Parish and flooded much of the Lake Charles area, is estimated to be the kind of 100-year hurricane represented by the model results.

[sarah bellum]

It makes me pause to wonder...what was I doing that day, August 23, 2005, so unaware that in a few short days my life would be so changed by TD12.

Was that the day they finished installing my new central AC unit (that was $2500 wasted) and I was pissed off 'cause they burned my carpet installing some PVC pipe. Now I think I had some nerve being pissed off about such a small thing.

Was that the day I went to Hobby Lobby in Gulfport and bought a big ceramic pumpkin so I could make a autumn display for my front porch? The same pumpkin that came bobbing like a cork down the hallway in our home as it filled with 7 feet of water just a few days later, convincing my poor husband that the outside wall must have given way-he didn't know about my recent purchase and assumed it was a neighbors'. I still have that silly pumpkin (of all the things!)

Did we eat at Jack's Restaurant that night not knowing it would be our last time? What I wouldn't give for that jukebox and some Oysters Bienville!

That day was probably just another day, like many before it. Little did we know...

[Ixolib]

And here's what was about to happen to me and my family less than a week later. Our home is at 20 feet above sea level in Biloxi!!!!!!!!!

This pic is about two minutes after the water started rising!!!

[decgirl66]

Wow, those pictures are scary and amazing.

[windstorm99]

The surprise dip that caught most by surprise....Power starting flickering for me and boom its gone.

[Brent]

The SW motion totally shocked me... Also, consistently the northern side of the storm was lacking a lot of convection, that should have been a hint of the strong ridge to the north.

Miami REALLY got lucky with Katrina. I know a strengthening Cat 1 is bad, but I'm convinced if it had had another 6-12 hours over water it would have been a major.

Does anyone else remember this? It was pretty much right track-wise, this was from 11pm Wednesday 8/24

THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

[windstorm99]

Models had a good idea from the start...

[Ptarmigan]

Katrina according to the Army Corp of Engineers was a 396 year storm event. Here is a tease of the article... I can't believe to this day I was less then 20 miles from the western eye wall. I had never ever seen so many trees down. It looked like pictures from the Tunguska Event but it was in front of my eyes.

http://blog.nola.com/updates/2007/08/ne ... ction.html

Using a variety of factors, corps scientists and engineers devised a set of 152 storms of varying sizes, wind speeds and storm surges, with chances of hitting the area ranging from 1-in-50 years to 1-in-5,000 years. Each of the storms was run at the coastline around New Orleans from different directions.

The models indicated that Hurricane Katrina -- with Category 3 wind speed at landfall, and Category 5 central pressure and storm surge heights -- was a 396-year storm.

Hurricane Rita, which destroyed waterfront communities in Cameron Parish and flooded much of the Lake Charles area, is estimated to be the kind of 100-year hurricane represented by the model results.

Katrina was a 1 in 396 year storm. I don't want to even think about a 1 in 5,000 year storm.