000
URNT15 KNHC 221320
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 26 20070822
131030 2114N 09657W 6968 03068 9933 +108 +106 031091 091 999 999 03
131100 2115N 09658W 6968 03072 9940 +106 +104 030088 089 999 999 03
131130 2116N 09659W 6968 03076 9952 +100 +100 030090 092 999 999 03
131200 2117N 09700W 6966 03085 9965 +096 +096 031092 093 999 999 03
131230 2118N 09702W 6969 03086 9973 +094 +094 032090 091 999 999 03
131300 2119N 09703W 6969 03091 9967 +106 +074 033092 095 999 999 03
131330 2120N 09704W 6968 03097 9980 +098 +090 034095 096 999 999 03
131400 2121N 09705W 6968 03100 9983 +098 +092 037094 094 999 999 03
131430 2122N 09707W 6969 03103 9988 +098 +088 037090 091 999 999 03
131500 2123N 09708W 6966 03110 9984 +106 +072 034086 086 999 999 03
131530 2124N 09709W 6969 03110 9987 +106 +092 032084 085 999 999 03
131600 2125N 09711W 6967 03117 9991 +106 +092 035084 084 999 999 03
131630 2126N 09712W 6969 03118 9996 +106 +080 036083 083 999 999 03
131700 2127N 09713W 6969 03120 0006 +100 +076 038083 084 999 999 03
131730 2128N 09714W 6964 03128 0014 +096 +074 038081 083 999 999 03
131800 2129N 09716W 6970 03122 0001 +108 +076 038081 082 999 999 03
131830 2130N 09717W 6968 03129 0007 +106 +084 040081 083 999 999 03
131900 2131N 09718W 6966 03134 0007 +108 +084 039076 076 999 999 03
131930 2132N 09720W 6969 03132 0014 +104 +088 041074 075 999 999 03
132000 2133N 09721W 6964 03141 0027 +096 +088 042073 074 999 999 03
$$
corrected VDM:
000
URNT12 KNHC 221305 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/12:48:50Z
B. 20 deg 31 min N
096 deg 00 min W
C. NA mb 2915 m
D. NA kt
E. 0NA deg 000 nm
F. 194 deg 092 kt
G. 126 deg 086 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 7 C/ 3054 m
J. 12 C/ 3049 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.31 / 4 nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 13 CCA
MAX FL WIND 98 KT N QUAD 11:25:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 315 / 35NM
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 97 KT NW QUAD 13:08:10 Z
SOME SPIRAL BANDING
CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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tolakram
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Re: Cat 1 Hurricane DEAN: 7 AM p326, discussions, analyses, sat
The loop shows a lot of convection firing near the center, but fortunately he's about out of water.
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HenkL
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000
URNT15 KNHC 221330
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 27 20070822
132030 2134N 09722W 6970 03136 0027 +098 +090 045071 072 999 999 03
132100 2135N 09724W 6967 03144 0035 +094 +094 044069 071 999 999 03
132130 2136N 09725W 6968 03144 0040 +092 +092 047068 069 999 999 03
132200 2137N 09725W 6966 03146 0042 +090 +090 048067 068 999 999 03
132230 2137N 09723W 6969 03142 0037 +094 +088 049067 067 999 999 03
132300 2137N 09722W 6969 03140 0031 +096 +092 049068 069 999 999 03
132330 2137N 09720W 6965 03143 0023 +102 +088 049069 070 999 999 03
132400 2136N 09719W 6969 03136 0024 +100 +086 049068 069 999 999 03
132430 2136N 09718W 6967 03136 0018 +102 +084 050068 069 999 999 03
132500 2135N 09716W 6968 03134 0020 +100 +082 052070 070 999 999 03
132530 2135N 09715W 6967 03132 0015 +102 +074 049069 069 999 999 03
132600 2135N 09713W 6969 03126 0004 +108 +068 049068 069 999 999 03
132630 2134N 09712W 6967 03126 0001 +108 +070 052069 070 999 999 03
132700 2134N 09710W 6968 03122 9998 +108 +072 054071 072 999 999 03
132730 2133N 09709W 6968 03118 9993 +108 +074 053071 073 999 999 03
132800 2133N 09708W 6968 03118 9994 +106 +082 054069 070 999 999 03
132830 2133N 09706W 6969 03116 9993 +106 +084 057068 069 999 999 03
132900 2132N 09705W 6967 03118 9982 +116 +076 057069 070 999 999 03
132930 2132N 09703W 6968 03117 9993 +106 +082 055069 069 999 999 03
133000 2132N 09702W 6969 03113 9999 +098 +096 060072 075 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221330
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 27 20070822
132030 2134N 09722W 6970 03136 0027 +098 +090 045071 072 999 999 03
132100 2135N 09724W 6967 03144 0035 +094 +094 044069 071 999 999 03
132130 2136N 09725W 6968 03144 0040 +092 +092 047068 069 999 999 03
132200 2137N 09725W 6966 03146 0042 +090 +090 048067 068 999 999 03
132230 2137N 09723W 6969 03142 0037 +094 +088 049067 067 999 999 03
132300 2137N 09722W 6969 03140 0031 +096 +092 049068 069 999 999 03
132330 2137N 09720W 6965 03143 0023 +102 +088 049069 070 999 999 03
132400 2136N 09719W 6969 03136 0024 +100 +086 049068 069 999 999 03
132430 2136N 09718W 6967 03136 0018 +102 +084 050068 069 999 999 03
132500 2135N 09716W 6968 03134 0020 +100 +082 052070 070 999 999 03
132530 2135N 09715W 6967 03132 0015 +102 +074 049069 069 999 999 03
132600 2135N 09713W 6969 03126 0004 +108 +068 049068 069 999 999 03
132630 2134N 09712W 6967 03126 0001 +108 +070 052069 070 999 999 03
132700 2134N 09710W 6968 03122 9998 +108 +072 054071 072 999 999 03
132730 2133N 09709W 6968 03118 9993 +108 +074 053071 073 999 999 03
132800 2133N 09708W 6968 03118 9994 +106 +082 054069 070 999 999 03
132830 2133N 09706W 6969 03116 9993 +106 +084 057068 069 999 999 03
132900 2132N 09705W 6967 03118 9982 +116 +076 057069 070 999 999 03
132930 2132N 09703W 6968 03117 9993 +106 +082 055069 069 999 999 03
133000 2132N 09702W 6969 03113 9999 +098 +096 060072 075 999 999 03
$$
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HenkL
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- Posts: 2401
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000
URNT15 KNHC 221340
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 28 20070822
133030 2131N 09701W 6962 03117 0021 +078 +078 059075 078 999 999 03
133100 2131N 09659W 6971 03103 0018 +078 +078 060069 072 999 999 03
133130 2131N 09658W 6966 03107 0001 +088 +088 059067 068 999 999 03
133200 2130N 09657W 6968 03104 9992 +094 +094 057066 067 999 999 03
133230 2130N 09655W 6968 03102 9990 +094 +094 057065 066 999 999 03
133300 2130N 09654W 6969 03099 9985 +096 +096 058066 069 999 999 03
133330 2129N 09652W 6967 03100 9986 +094 +094 058065 068 999 999 03
133400 2129N 09651W 6968 03097 9981 +096 +096 064062 062 999 999 03
133430 2129N 09650W 6968 03095 9976 +098 +098 066060 062 999 999 03
133500 2129N 09648W 6968 03094 9978 +096 +096 068060 061 999 999 03
133530 2129N 09647W 6967 03094 9977 +096 +096 067062 063 999 999 03
133600 2129N 09646W 6968 03092 9976 +096 +096 067062 063 999 999 03
133630 2129N 09644W 6966 03093 9972 +098 +098 067061 061 999 999 03
133700 2129N 09643W 6969 03089 9971 +098 +098 069063 064 999 999 03
133730 2130N 09642W 6969 03088 9972 +096 +096 072062 063 999 999 03
133800 2130N 09640W 6968 03089 9980 +090 +090 073060 061 999 999 03
133830 2130N 09639W 6965 03091 9982 +088 +088 074059 061 999 999 03
133900 2131N 09638W 6969 03086 9980 +090 +090 075059 061 999 999 03
133930 2131N 09636W 6969 03087 9979 +090 +090 078060 061 999 999 03
134000 2131N 09635W 6966 03090 9976 +092 +092 079056 057 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221340
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 28 20070822
133030 2131N 09701W 6962 03117 0021 +078 +078 059075 078 999 999 03
133100 2131N 09659W 6971 03103 0018 +078 +078 060069 072 999 999 03
133130 2131N 09658W 6966 03107 0001 +088 +088 059067 068 999 999 03
133200 2130N 09657W 6968 03104 9992 +094 +094 057066 067 999 999 03
133230 2130N 09655W 6968 03102 9990 +094 +094 057065 066 999 999 03
133300 2130N 09654W 6969 03099 9985 +096 +096 058066 069 999 999 03
133330 2129N 09652W 6967 03100 9986 +094 +094 058065 068 999 999 03
133400 2129N 09651W 6968 03097 9981 +096 +096 064062 062 999 999 03
133430 2129N 09650W 6968 03095 9976 +098 +098 066060 062 999 999 03
133500 2129N 09648W 6968 03094 9978 +096 +096 068060 061 999 999 03
133530 2129N 09647W 6967 03094 9977 +096 +096 067062 063 999 999 03
133600 2129N 09646W 6968 03092 9976 +096 +096 067062 063 999 999 03
133630 2129N 09644W 6966 03093 9972 +098 +098 067061 061 999 999 03
133700 2129N 09643W 6969 03089 9971 +098 +098 069063 064 999 999 03
133730 2130N 09642W 6969 03088 9972 +096 +096 072062 063 999 999 03
133800 2130N 09640W 6968 03089 9980 +090 +090 073060 061 999 999 03
133830 2130N 09639W 6965 03091 9982 +088 +088 074059 061 999 999 03
133900 2131N 09638W 6969 03086 9980 +090 +090 075059 061 999 999 03
133930 2131N 09636W 6969 03087 9979 +090 +090 078060 061 999 999 03
134000 2131N 09635W 6966 03090 9976 +092 +092 079056 057 999 999 03
$$
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HenkL
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000
URNT15 KNHC 221350
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 29 20070822
134030 2132N 09634W 6969 03087 9972 +096 +092 077055 056 999 999 03
134100 2132N 09632W 6969 03087 9971 +098 +092 077055 055 999 999 03
134130 2132N 09631W 6967 03091 9974 +096 +092 078055 056 999 999 03
134200 2132N 09630W 6967 03091 9979 +092 +092 081056 057 999 999 03
134230 2132N 09628W 6968 03092 9984 +090 +090 081057 058 999 999 03
134300 2132N 09627W 6968 03091 9983 +090 +090 082058 058 999 999 03
134330 2132N 09625W 6968 03091 9983 +090 +090 082058 059 999 999 03
134400 2132N 09624W 6968 03090 9987 +086 +086 083057 057 999 999 03
134430 2132N 09623W 6968 03090 9987 +086 +086 082056 058 999 999 03
134500 2132N 09621W 6968 03088 9979 +090 +090 082058 058 999 999 03
134530 2132N 09620W 6969 03088 9986 +086 +086 087056 059 999 999 03
134600 2132N 09618W 6968 03090 9995 +080 +080 084060 062 999 999 03
134630 2130N 09618W 6966 03088 9982 +086 +086 084058 059 999 999 03
134700 2129N 09618W 6969 03088 9987 +086 +086 085059 060 999 999 03
134730 2138N 09603W 6967 03087 9974 +092 +092 084061 062 999 999 03
134800 2136N 09604W 6969 03082 9974 +090 +090 090061 064 999 999 03
134830 2134N 09604W 6968 03081 9977 +086 +086 091061 064 999 999 03
134900 2133N 09604W 6967 03080 9991 +074 +074 096059 061 999 999 03
134930 2131N 09604W 6969 03073 9994 +068 +068 100062 066 999 999 03
135000 2130N 09604W 6965 03035 9946 +068 +068 098060 066 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221350
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 29 20070822
134030 2132N 09634W 6969 03087 9972 +096 +092 077055 056 999 999 03
134100 2132N 09632W 6969 03087 9971 +098 +092 077055 055 999 999 03
134130 2132N 09631W 6967 03091 9974 +096 +092 078055 056 999 999 03
134200 2132N 09630W 6967 03091 9979 +092 +092 081056 057 999 999 03
134230 2132N 09628W 6968 03092 9984 +090 +090 081057 058 999 999 03
134300 2132N 09627W 6968 03091 9983 +090 +090 082058 058 999 999 03
134330 2132N 09625W 6968 03091 9983 +090 +090 082058 059 999 999 03
134400 2132N 09624W 6968 03090 9987 +086 +086 083057 057 999 999 03
134430 2132N 09623W 6968 03090 9987 +086 +086 082056 058 999 999 03
134500 2132N 09621W 6968 03088 9979 +090 +090 082058 058 999 999 03
134530 2132N 09620W 6969 03088 9986 +086 +086 087056 059 999 999 03
134600 2132N 09618W 6968 03090 9995 +080 +080 084060 062 999 999 03
134630 2130N 09618W 6966 03088 9982 +086 +086 084058 059 999 999 03
134700 2129N 09618W 6969 03088 9987 +086 +086 085059 060 999 999 03
134730 2138N 09603W 6967 03087 9974 +092 +092 084061 062 999 999 03
134800 2136N 09604W 6969 03082 9974 +090 +090 090061 064 999 999 03
134830 2134N 09604W 6968 03081 9977 +086 +086 091061 064 999 999 03
134900 2133N 09604W 6967 03080 9991 +074 +074 096059 061 999 999 03
134930 2131N 09604W 6969 03073 9994 +068 +068 100062 066 999 999 03
135000 2130N 09604W 6965 03035 9946 +068 +068 098060 066 999 999 03
$$
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Re: Cat 1 Hurricane DEAN: 7 AM p326, discussions, analyses, sat
Brownsville long range radar shows some significant Tstorms heading for
Monterrey. Also a band north of Brownsville. The mountains to the west
of Monterrey either block the radar or suppress the showers.
Monterrey. Also a band north of Brownsville. The mountains to the west
of Monterrey either block the radar or suppress the showers.
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HenkL
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000
URNT15 KNHC 221400
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 30 20070822
135030 2128N 09604W 6969 03043 9938 +084 +084 105067 068 999 999 03
135100 2127N 09604W 6970 03059 9948 +092 +092 103063 065 999 999 03
135130 2125N 09604W 6969 03057 9941 +094 +094 103063 065 999 999 03
135200 2119N 09607W 6968 03068 9957 +090 +090 112064 066 999 999 33
135230 2122N 09604W 6967 03057 9976 +066 +066 108081 085 999 999 03
135300 2121N 09604W 6961 03057 9986 +052 +052 114078 082 999 999 03
135330 2119N 09604W 6966 03049 9938 +086 +086 105077 082 999 999 03
135400 2118N 09605W 6968 03044 9935 +086 +086 112081 083 999 999 03
135430 2116N 09606W 6976 03028 9921 +092 +092 108081 083 999 999 03
135500 2114N 09606W 6974 03021 9903 +098 +098 101077 080 999 999 03
135530 2113N 09607W 6994 02994 9899 +100 +100 095078 080 999 999 03
135600 2111N 09608W 7040 02934 9885 +110 +100 090078 081 999 999 03
135630 2109N 09609W 6919 03063 9857 +110 +094 085081 083 999 999 03
135700 2107N 09609W 6838 03165 9853 +112 +078 080085 089 999 999 03
135730 2106N 09609W 6957 03018 9831 +140 +066 080092 094 999 999 03
135800 2104N 09610W 7034 02910 9787 +172 +060 086090 091 999 999 03
135830 2102N 09611W 7002 02942 9771 +178 +056 085092 092 999 999 03
135900 2100N 09611W 7007 02930 9769 +172 +076 086088 088 999 999 03
135930 2058N 09611W 7009 02920 9765 +168 +088 084084 086 999 999 03
140000 2056N 09612W 7008 02916 9770 +156 +100 084085 086 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221400
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 30 20070822
135030 2128N 09604W 6969 03043 9938 +084 +084 105067 068 999 999 03
135100 2127N 09604W 6970 03059 9948 +092 +092 103063 065 999 999 03
135130 2125N 09604W 6969 03057 9941 +094 +094 103063 065 999 999 03
135200 2119N 09607W 6968 03068 9957 +090 +090 112064 066 999 999 33
135230 2122N 09604W 6967 03057 9976 +066 +066 108081 085 999 999 03
135300 2121N 09604W 6961 03057 9986 +052 +052 114078 082 999 999 03
135330 2119N 09604W 6966 03049 9938 +086 +086 105077 082 999 999 03
135400 2118N 09605W 6968 03044 9935 +086 +086 112081 083 999 999 03
135430 2116N 09606W 6976 03028 9921 +092 +092 108081 083 999 999 03
135500 2114N 09606W 6974 03021 9903 +098 +098 101077 080 999 999 03
135530 2113N 09607W 6994 02994 9899 +100 +100 095078 080 999 999 03
135600 2111N 09608W 7040 02934 9885 +110 +100 090078 081 999 999 03
135630 2109N 09609W 6919 03063 9857 +110 +094 085081 083 999 999 03
135700 2107N 09609W 6838 03165 9853 +112 +078 080085 089 999 999 03
135730 2106N 09609W 6957 03018 9831 +140 +066 080092 094 999 999 03
135800 2104N 09610W 7034 02910 9787 +172 +060 086090 091 999 999 03
135830 2102N 09611W 7002 02942 9771 +178 +056 085092 092 999 999 03
135900 2100N 09611W 7007 02930 9769 +172 +076 086088 088 999 999 03
135930 2058N 09611W 7009 02920 9765 +168 +088 084084 086 999 999 03
140000 2056N 09612W 7008 02916 9770 +156 +100 084085 086 999 999 03
$$
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HenkL
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000
URNT15 KNHC 221410
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 31 20070822
140030 2054N 09612W 7006 02912 9766 +152 +104 083081 084 999 999 03
140100 2052N 09612W 7007 02906 9770 +142 +120 087071 074 999 999 03
140130 2050N 09613W 7009 02898 9768 +138 +122 088071 073 999 999 03
140200 2048N 09613W 7007 02892 9755 +142 +118 091065 066 999 999 03
140230 2047N 09613W 7008 02882 9749 +136 +136 091063 065 999 999 03
140300 2045N 09613W 7004 02878 9757 +122 +122 091054 061 999 999 03
140330 2043N 09613W 7008 02874 9758 +122 +122 097036 042 999 999 03
140400 2041N 09613W 7007 02880 9776 +112 +112 097023 027 999 999 03
140430 2040N 09613W 7011 02880 9787 +108 +108 115017 018 999 999 03
140500 2038N 09612W 7004 02894 9782 +116 +116 116016 017 999 999 03
140530 2036N 09613W 7007 02893 9772 +126 +126 107015 016 999 999 03
140600 2034N 09613W 7009 02893 9772 +128 +128 100008 012 999 999 03
140630 2033N 09614W 7001 02904 9788 +116 +116 055010 012 999 999 03
140700 2031N 09613W 7013 02883 9783 +116 +116 082008 009 999 999 03
140730 2031N 09610W 7005 02905 9803 +110 +110 091009 010 999 999 03
140800 2031N 09609W 7003 02908 9824 +094 +094 097004 008 999 999 03
140830 2031N 09607W 7006 02905 9817 +100 +100 143011 019 999 999 05
140900 2031N 09605W 7016 02899 9837 +090 +090 139035 041 999 999 05
140930 2031N 09603W 7009 02912 9838 +092 +092 151049 054 999 999 03
141000 2032N 09602W 7006 02920 9846 +090 +090 149053 056 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221410
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 31 20070822
140030 2054N 09612W 7006 02912 9766 +152 +104 083081 084 999 999 03
140100 2052N 09612W 7007 02906 9770 +142 +120 087071 074 999 999 03
140130 2050N 09613W 7009 02898 9768 +138 +122 088071 073 999 999 03
140200 2048N 09613W 7007 02892 9755 +142 +118 091065 066 999 999 03
140230 2047N 09613W 7008 02882 9749 +136 +136 091063 065 999 999 03
140300 2045N 09613W 7004 02878 9757 +122 +122 091054 061 999 999 03
140330 2043N 09613W 7008 02874 9758 +122 +122 097036 042 999 999 03
140400 2041N 09613W 7007 02880 9776 +112 +112 097023 027 999 999 03
140430 2040N 09613W 7011 02880 9787 +108 +108 115017 018 999 999 03
140500 2038N 09612W 7004 02894 9782 +116 +116 116016 017 999 999 03
140530 2036N 09613W 7007 02893 9772 +126 +126 107015 016 999 999 03
140600 2034N 09613W 7009 02893 9772 +128 +128 100008 012 999 999 03
140630 2033N 09614W 7001 02904 9788 +116 +116 055010 012 999 999 03
140700 2031N 09613W 7013 02883 9783 +116 +116 082008 009 999 999 03
140730 2031N 09610W 7005 02905 9803 +110 +110 091009 010 999 999 03
140800 2031N 09609W 7003 02908 9824 +094 +094 097004 008 999 999 03
140830 2031N 09607W 7006 02905 9817 +100 +100 143011 019 999 999 05
140900 2031N 09605W 7016 02899 9837 +090 +090 139035 041 999 999 05
140930 2031N 09603W 7009 02912 9838 +092 +092 151049 054 999 999 03
141000 2032N 09602W 7006 02920 9846 +090 +090 149053 056 999 999 03
$$
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HenkL
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000
UZNT13 KNHC 221411
XXAA 72148 99210 70962 08216 99983 25209 ///// 00648 ///// /////
92537 21204 11609 85272 20830 11582 88999 77999
31313 09608 81358
51515 10190 70953
61616 AF301 1704A DEAN OB 18
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2101N09628W 1402 LST WND 032 MBL WND 11605 AEV
00000 DLM WND 11083 979721 WL150 11600 106 =
XXBB 72148 99210 70962 08216 00983 25209 11923 21005 22850 20830
33812 20850 44791 22459 55711 19059 66701 17060
21212 00983 ///// 11979 11598 22974 11598 33956 11112 44945 11605
55928 11609 66916 12106 77906 11616 88894 12098 99878 10595 11870
10099 22859 11081 33850 11582 44750 10062 55701 08590
31313 09608 81358
51515 10190 70953
61616 AF301 1704A DEAN OB 18
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2101N09628W 1402 LST WND 032 MBL WND 11605 AEV
00000 DLM WND 11083 979721 WL150 11600 106 =
UZNT13 KNHC 221411
XXAA 72148 99210 70962 08216 99983 25209 ///// 00648 ///// /////
92537 21204 11609 85272 20830 11582 88999 77999
31313 09608 81358
51515 10190 70953
61616 AF301 1704A DEAN OB 18
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2101N09628W 1402 LST WND 032 MBL WND 11605 AEV
00000 DLM WND 11083 979721 WL150 11600 106 =
XXBB 72148 99210 70962 08216 00983 25209 11923 21005 22850 20830
33812 20850 44791 22459 55711 19059 66701 17060
21212 00983 ///// 11979 11598 22974 11598 33956 11112 44945 11605
55928 11609 66916 12106 77906 11616 88894 12098 99878 10595 11870
10099 22859 11081 33850 11582 44750 10062 55701 08590
31313 09608 81358
51515 10190 70953
61616 AF301 1704A DEAN OB 18
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2101N09628W 1402 LST WND 032 MBL WND 11605 AEV
00000 DLM WND 11083 979721 WL150 11600 106 =
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
541 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
541 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MOISTURE SPREADING WELL NORTH OF HURRICANE DEAN WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE CIRCULATION AROUND DEAN WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS WITH TIDES
INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL DURING HIGH TIDE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
MAINLY AFFECTING AREA BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HIGH SWELLS WILL ALSO PROVIDE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH
SURF THROUGH THURSDAY. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DEAN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
$$
MJG
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
404 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
TXZ251-256-257-221515-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SU.Y.0002.070822T1000Z-070823T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.CF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070823T1200Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
404 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE DEAN WILL REACH THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS COASTLINE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE WAVES
ADVANCE TO THE DUNES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND FLOODING
OF SOME BEACH ACCESS ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SWIMMING AND OTHER MARINE RELATED ACTIVITIES ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA ARE HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE THREAT FROM HEAVY SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
HEAVY SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSE A DANGER TO ANYONE IN THE WATER.
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
541 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
541 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MOISTURE SPREADING WELL NORTH OF HURRICANE DEAN WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE CIRCULATION AROUND DEAN WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH HIGH SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS WITH TIDES
INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL DURING HIGH TIDE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
MAINLY AFFECTING AREA BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HIGH SWELLS WILL ALSO PROVIDE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH
SURF THROUGH THURSDAY. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DEAN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
$$
MJG
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
404 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
TXZ251-256-257-221515-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SU.Y.0002.070822T1000Z-070823T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.CF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070823T1200Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
404 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE DEAN WILL REACH THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS COASTLINE LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE WAVES
ADVANCE TO THE DUNES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND FLOODING
OF SOME BEACH ACCESS ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SWIMMING AND OTHER MARINE RELATED ACTIVITIES ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA ARE HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE THREAT FROM HEAVY SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
HEAVY SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSE A DANGER TO ANYONE IN THE WATER.
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.
$$
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HenkL
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2401
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
- Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
- Contact:
000
URNT12 KNHC 221418
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/14:05:50Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
096 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2904 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 079 deg 094 kt
G. 008 deg 032 nm
H. EXTRAP 979 mb
I. 11 C/ 3089 m
J. 13 C/ 3006 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C16
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.31 / 02 nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 94 KT N QUAD 13:57:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C, 8 / 32NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL RAGGED
FRQT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC S AND E QUADS
URNT12 KNHC 221418
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/14:05:50Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
096 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2904 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 079 deg 094 kt
G. 008 deg 032 nm
H. EXTRAP 979 mb
I. 11 C/ 3089 m
J. 13 C/ 3006 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C16
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.31 / 02 nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 94 KT N QUAD 13:57:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C, 8 / 32NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL RAGGED
FRQT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC S AND E QUADS
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-
HenkL
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2401
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
- Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
- Contact:
another correction:
000
URNT12 KNHC 221418 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/14:05:50Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
096 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2904 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 079 deg 094 kt
G. 008 deg 032 nm
H. EXTRAP 979 mb
I. 11 C/ 3089 m
J. 13 C/ 3006 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.31 / nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 19 CCA
MAX FL WIND 97 KT NW QUAD 13:08:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C, 8 / 32NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL RAGGED
FRQT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC S AND E QUADS
000
URNT12 KNHC 221418 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/14:05:50Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
096 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2904 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 079 deg 094 kt
G. 008 deg 032 nm
H. EXTRAP 979 mb
I. 11 C/ 3089 m
J. 13 C/ 3006 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.31 / nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 19 CCA
MAX FL WIND 97 KT NW QUAD 13:08:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C, 8 / 32NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL RAGGED
FRQT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC S AND E QUADS
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-
HenkL
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2401
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
- Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
- Contact:
000
URNT15 KNHC 221420
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 32 20070822
141030 2032N 09600W 7003 02922 9814 +114 +114 150047 053 999 999 03
141100 2033N 09558W 7009 02924 9819 +118 +118 155047 051 999 999 03
141130 2033N 09556W 7010 02928 9820 +124 +112 158053 054 999 999 03
141200 2033N 09554W 6993 02954 9838 +112 +112 173053 054 999 999 03
141230 2034N 09553W 7009 02942 9851 +108 +108 170055 057 999 999 03
141300 2034N 09551W 7001 02957 9878 +092 +092 174066 070 999 999 03
141330 2034N 09549W 7008 02954 9884 +092 +092 170077 082 999 999 03
141400 2034N 09547W 6996 02973 9907 +078 +078 166076 080 999 999 03
141430 2034N 09545W 6954 03029 9908 +080 +080 172065 068 999 999 03
141500 2034N 09544W 6973 03012 9915 +080 +080 171067 071 999 999 03
141530 2034N 09542W 6966 03027 9935 +070 +070 169075 077 999 999 03
141600 2034N 09540W 6963 03036 9947 +066 +066 162078 083 999 999 03
141630 2034N 09539W 6977 03020 9944 +070 +070 169072 075 999 999 03
141700 2034N 09537W 6961 03044 9951 +068 +068 171069 074 999 999 03
141730 2034N 09535W 6966 03040 9952 +068 +068 170067 068 999 999 03
141800 2034N 09533W 6976 03028 9945 +074 +074 177064 066 999 999 03
141830 2034N 09531W 6960 03052 9946 +076 +076 183063 065 999 999 03
141900 2034N 09529W 6973 03037 9957 +070 +070 181063 065 999 999 03
141930 2034N 09528W 6967 03051 9963 +070 +070 176059 061 999 999 03
142000 2034N 09526W 6969 03053 9974 +066 +066 176059 061 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221420
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 32 20070822
141030 2032N 09600W 7003 02922 9814 +114 +114 150047 053 999 999 03
141100 2033N 09558W 7009 02924 9819 +118 +118 155047 051 999 999 03
141130 2033N 09556W 7010 02928 9820 +124 +112 158053 054 999 999 03
141200 2033N 09554W 6993 02954 9838 +112 +112 173053 054 999 999 03
141230 2034N 09553W 7009 02942 9851 +108 +108 170055 057 999 999 03
141300 2034N 09551W 7001 02957 9878 +092 +092 174066 070 999 999 03
141330 2034N 09549W 7008 02954 9884 +092 +092 170077 082 999 999 03
141400 2034N 09547W 6996 02973 9907 +078 +078 166076 080 999 999 03
141430 2034N 09545W 6954 03029 9908 +080 +080 172065 068 999 999 03
141500 2034N 09544W 6973 03012 9915 +080 +080 171067 071 999 999 03
141530 2034N 09542W 6966 03027 9935 +070 +070 169075 077 999 999 03
141600 2034N 09540W 6963 03036 9947 +066 +066 162078 083 999 999 03
141630 2034N 09539W 6977 03020 9944 +070 +070 169072 075 999 999 03
141700 2034N 09537W 6961 03044 9951 +068 +068 171069 074 999 999 03
141730 2034N 09535W 6966 03040 9952 +068 +068 170067 068 999 999 03
141800 2034N 09533W 6976 03028 9945 +074 +074 177064 066 999 999 03
141830 2034N 09531W 6960 03052 9946 +076 +076 183063 065 999 999 03
141900 2034N 09529W 6973 03037 9957 +070 +070 181063 065 999 999 03
141930 2034N 09528W 6967 03051 9963 +070 +070 176059 061 999 999 03
142000 2034N 09526W 6969 03053 9974 +066 +066 176059 061 999 999 03
$$
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Category 5
- Category 5
- Posts: 10074
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:00 pm
- Location: New Brunswick, NJ
- Contact:
Re: Cat 1 Hurricane DEAN: 7 AM p326, discussions, analyses, sat
I can exactly pinpoint the center, it almost looks like it's making landfall.
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HenkL
- S2K Supporter
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- Contact:
000
URNT15 KNHC 221430
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 33 20070822
142030 2034N 09524W 6967 03061 9986 +062 +062 171062 064 999 999 03
142100 2034N 09522W 6966 03067 9997 +058 +058 163064 065 999 999 03
142130 2035N 09521W 6965 03071 9997 +060 +060 160055 057 999 999 03
142200 2038N 09522W 6968 03045 9980 +054 +054 161054 057 999 999 03
142230 2037N 09523W 6969 03068 0007 +054 +054 163065 068 999 999 03
142300 2037N 09525W 6969 03058 9981 +066 +066 171060 060 999 999 03
142330 2037N 09527W 6972 03049 9977 +064 +064 177062 064 999 999 03
142400 2037N 09529W 6960 03060 9972 +064 +064 175067 068 999 999 03
142430 2037N 09530W 6974 03038 9951 +076 +076 180066 068 999 999 03
142500 2037N 09532W 6969 03040 9936 +084 +084 186064 066 999 999 03
142530 2037N 09534W 6961 03047 9938 +080 +080 185067 071 999 999 03
142600 2036N 09535W 6968 03038 9929 +086 +086 178074 075 999 999 03
142630 2036N 09537W 6969 03035 9924 +088 +088 178068 069 999 999 03
142700 2036N 09539W 6969 03035 9927 +086 +086 171072 074 999 999 03
142730 2036N 09541W 6967 03033 9933 +078 +078 167080 084 999 999 03
142800 2036N 09542W 6969 03027 9951 +062 +062 167072 082 999 999 03
142830 2036N 09544W 6968 03028 9952 +060 +060 168072 075 999 999 03
142900 2036N 09546W 6968 03026 9939 +068 +068 167070 072 999 999 03
142930 2036N 09548W 6967 03021 9940 +062 +062 166073 077 999 999 03
143000 2036N 09550W 6965 03017 9936 +060 +060 166078 080 999 999 03
$$
URNT15 KNHC 221430
AF301 1704A DEAN HDOB 33 20070822
142030 2034N 09524W 6967 03061 9986 +062 +062 171062 064 999 999 03
142100 2034N 09522W 6966 03067 9997 +058 +058 163064 065 999 999 03
142130 2035N 09521W 6965 03071 9997 +060 +060 160055 057 999 999 03
142200 2038N 09522W 6968 03045 9980 +054 +054 161054 057 999 999 03
142230 2037N 09523W 6969 03068 0007 +054 +054 163065 068 999 999 03
142300 2037N 09525W 6969 03058 9981 +066 +066 171060 060 999 999 03
142330 2037N 09527W 6972 03049 9977 +064 +064 177062 064 999 999 03
142400 2037N 09529W 6960 03060 9972 +064 +064 175067 068 999 999 03
142430 2037N 09530W 6974 03038 9951 +076 +076 180066 068 999 999 03
142500 2037N 09532W 6969 03040 9936 +084 +084 186064 066 999 999 03
142530 2037N 09534W 6961 03047 9938 +080 +080 185067 071 999 999 03
142600 2036N 09535W 6968 03038 9929 +086 +086 178074 075 999 999 03
142630 2036N 09537W 6969 03035 9924 +088 +088 178068 069 999 999 03
142700 2036N 09539W 6969 03035 9927 +086 +086 171072 074 999 999 03
142730 2036N 09541W 6967 03033 9933 +078 +078 167080 084 999 999 03
142800 2036N 09542W 6969 03027 9951 +062 +062 167072 082 999 999 03
142830 2036N 09544W 6968 03028 9952 +060 +060 168072 075 999 999 03
142900 2036N 09546W 6968 03026 9939 +068 +068 167070 072 999 999 03
142930 2036N 09548W 6967 03021 9940 +062 +062 166073 077 999 999 03
143000 2036N 09550W 6965 03017 9936 +060 +060 166078 080 999 999 03
$$
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Re: Cat 1 Hurricane DEAN: 7 AM p326, discussions, analyses, sat
That cold-top center could do a rapid intensification burst just prior to landfall. Dean had to use its energy to pull those bands back into the center after having its core stripped by land interaction. Interesting that the BOC waters finally gave Dean the black IR core he lacked at category 4.
Even with category 1, bursting storms can have punch.
Looks like Tuxpan, Mexico landfall.
Flash: TWC on behind me here just said "Dean now at 100mph!"
Even with category 1, bursting storms can have punch.
Looks like Tuxpan, Mexico landfall.
Flash: TWC on behind me here just said "Dean now at 100mph!"
Last edited by Sanibel on Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Advisories & Official Forecast Maps
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC WED AUG 22 2007
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 225SE 75SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 96.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
296
WTNT34 KNHC 221439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN A
FEW HOURS...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THIS
TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ABOUT FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
VERACRUZ DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
620
WTNT44 KNHC 221439
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN
IS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD. A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT...
CORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE
ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.6N 96.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC WED AUG 22 2007
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 225SE 75SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 96.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
296
WTNT34 KNHC 221439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN A
FEW HOURS...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THIS
TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ABOUT FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
VERACRUZ DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
620
WTNT44 KNHC 221439
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN
IS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD. A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT...
CORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE
ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.6N 96.3W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
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Brent
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Re: Cat 1 Hurricane DEAN: 7 AM p326, discussions, analyses, sat
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
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