Area of convection (Former 92L)

[windstorm99]

Dont see much going on in the bahamas and really it will run out of realestate before ever haveing a chance.

Some rain for south florida is what i see.

[vaffie]

Keep an eye on the southern part of the wave--in the SW Caribbean. Convection increasing today and appearing to organize nicely now around a midlevel circulation at 12.5N, 77W.

[Portastorm]

The convection certainly looks healthy ... but I would think the upper trough north of it is going to shear anything that attempts to get started at the lower levels of the atmosphere.

[vaffie]

The convection certainly looks healthy ... but I would think the upper trough north of it is going to shear anything that attempts to get started at the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Good point, but the upper level low is moving away and actually providing for a good amount of divergence--so conditions will only improve over the course of the day.

[HURAKAN]

Not very healthy right now.

[Sanibel]

We REALLY need rain here in SW Florida, so that wave will help us. If it tracks west over the Gulf I would imagine the GOM was primed and ready.

[boca]

Just an ordinary wave, this is are only shot at rain in the next seven days.

[windstorm99]

Just an ordinary wave, this is are only shot at rain in the next seven days.

yep...No need to worry about any significant developmet here for now.Its runing out of time.

[wxman57]

Not much there, folks. Any circulation you see near Nassau is in the mid to upper levels associated with the upper low. There's a trof axis east of the convection as indicated on my graphic below. Development chances very low. Certainly isn't "invest-worthy".

[TampaFl]

NWS MIA Radar Loop shows what looks like the mid to upper level circulation over Bimini. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=amx&loop=yes

[wxman57]

NWS MIA Radar Loop shows what looks like the mid to upper level circulation over Bimini. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=amx&loop=yes

Yep, just the upper-level low spinning.

[ExBailbonds]

NWS MIA Radar Loop shows what looks like the mid to upper level circulation over Bimini. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=amx&loop=yes

Over Bimini huh?? You cant even see bimini on the miami radar picture. Bimini is the little dot on the sat image above your post between mia and the bahamas.

Edit
Ok now i see what you were seeing but that is way east of bimini.

[TampaFl]

NWS MIA Radar Loop shows what looks like the mid to upper level circulation over Bimini. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=amx&loop=yes

Over Bimini huh?? You cant even see bimini on the miami rader picture. Bimini is the little dot on the sat image above your post between mia and the bahamas.

Correct, Bimini is just above Androes Island (the big island just south of where the spin is). Been to Bimini quite a few times over the years.

Robert

[HURAKAN]

[SouthFloridawx]

Trough Axis is good enough for me. We really need the rain here... Hopefully the GS can give it some more energy to kick up some, higher than normal sea breeze boundaries. Come on JLAUDERDALE WAVE!



wxman57,

About the trough axis... Would it cause something at the surface to appear to have cyclonic turning, because of the axis itself. I noticed on your GARP image, that the surface flow on the back side was from S - N rather than in front of the axis, N - S?

[tailgater]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[tailgater]

Thanks for the map Hurakan, I lived in west palm beach a while and always thought Bimini was the closest Island to Maimi

[ExBailbonds]

TampaFl

I boat to bimini several times a year. The spin is over the berry islands look at the map that hurakan posted. Well kind of in between the the two now.

[fci]

Seems to me if there is a need for a picture of a Tropical Wave in the Weather Dictionary; this old 92L is perfect.

[tailgater]

Looking at latest vis loop, the spin over the Berry islands looks like a small vortex or eddy at or near the surface or mid level, one little T-storm blowing up near it.