Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

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hial2
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Re: Re:

#41 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 1:13 pm

seaswing wrote:
skysummit wrote:Heck...I'd much rather ride out a Cat 5 in Florida than I would ride out a Cat 3 in South Louisiana.
I hear ya! no, we don't have the levees that just aren't tall and strong enough and we aren't below sea level everywhere~ but Fla. isn't very wide in the widest part. A cat 5 would cover the whole state more than likely and there would be nowhere to evacuate except out of state... especially if it crossed east to west or west to east. A cat 6? well, no one would know what to expect... but I think it's coming..... not too far in our distant future....IMO... and again, IMO, global warming or the beginning of an active 20 years.... it will make Katrina look like a cat 1.


A wet cat 5 hurricane moving 15mph from Miami north would be as catastrophic as Katrina..Besides the material and human losses,it would toss Florida back in time to 1929 economically...Florida would be done for many,many years...
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#42 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 22, 2007 1:57 pm

Cat 6??? What, are you guys talking about something with sustained winds as high as 190 - 210mph? Hell...if something like that would hit ANYWHERE, they'd be done for many, many years.
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#43 Postby seaswing » Wed Aug 22, 2007 2:49 pm

skysummit wrote:Cat 6??? What, are you guys talking about something with sustained winds as high as 190 - 210mph? Hell...if something like that would hit ANYWHERE, they'd be done for many, many years.


Yep.... what we'd call the monster storm
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#44 Postby Cryomaniac » Wed Aug 22, 2007 4:41 pm

seaswing wrote:
skysummit wrote:Cat 6??? What, are you guys talking about something with sustained winds as high as 190 - 210mph? Hell...if something like that would hit ANYWHERE, they'd be done for many, many years.


Yep.... what we'd call the monster storm


That is just about possible isn't it? I mean whats the lowest theoretical pressure thats possible at the surface? Say a storm stalled in the GOM while it was very hot with perfect conditions.
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#45 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 4:46 pm

Cryomaniac wrote:
seaswing wrote:
skysummit wrote:Cat 6??? What, are you guys talking about something with sustained winds as high as 190 - 210mph? Hell...if something like that would hit ANYWHERE, they'd be done for many, many years.


Yep.... what we'd call the monster storm


That is just about possible isn't it? I mean whats the lowest theoretical pressure thats possible at the surface? Say a storm stalled in the GOM while it was very hot with perfect conditions.


I remember a storm in the Pacific a few years back with 200 mph sustained winds that hit an island,but I don't remember the name of the storm or the island..senior moment.. :P
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#46 Postby windycity » Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:03 pm

People, i think we need to keep things in perspective here. While i totally agree with Max ( he's the man!!) the notion of cat 6's coming is pretty far fetched. Cat 5's are not something that forms easily, :roll: the conditions have to be perfect. So a cat 6? Come on. :roll:
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#47 Postby Zardoz » Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:34 pm

Still firing pretty well, six hours later:

Image

Seems like there should've been a "bears watching" graphic posted by now...
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#48 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:12 pm


I remember a storm in the Pacific a few years back with 200 mph sustained winds that hit an island,but I don't remember the name of the storm or the island..senior moment.. :P


lol... that island probably has ceased to exist! :eek:
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#49 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:22 pm

skysummit wrote:Cat 6??? What, are you guys talking about something with sustained winds as high as 190 - 210mph? Hell...if something like that would hit ANYWHERE, they'd be done for many, many years.

It's impossible for that strong of a hurricane to hit land. Frictional effects slow down the wind on land.

Global warming WILL NOT make Katrina look like a Cat 1... the effects of it are still unproven and it is better to not spread more global-warming related hype.
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#50 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:25 pm

nothing but ITCZ traffic !!! out in the eastern atlantic
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#51 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:30 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:

I remember a storm in the Pacific a few years back with 200 mph sustained winds that hit an island,but I don't remember the name of the storm or the island..senior moment.. :P


lol... that island probably has ceased to exist! :eek:


Need help here..somebody has to remember the storm..I refuse to believe I'm THAT senile... :lol:
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#52 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:37 pm

Ok...Hurricane Linda, 190 mph and island is/was Socorro off Mexico...coincidentally,Socorro is spanish for HELP...
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#53 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:43 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Cat 6??? What, are you guys talking about something with sustained winds as high as 190 - 210mph? Hell...if something like that would hit ANYWHERE, they'd be done for many, many years.

It's impossible for that strong of a hurricane to hit land. Frictional effects slow down the wind on land.

Global warming WILL NOT make Katrina look like a Cat 1... the effects of it are still unproven and it is better to not spread more global-warming related hype.


What,haven't you seen "The day after tomorrow" yet?? :lol:

WE desperately need something to track!
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#54 Postby D3m3NT3DVoRT3X » Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:53 pm

Image
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Re:

#55 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 7:05 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:nothing but ITCZ traffic !!! out in the eastern atlantic


I'm not so sure it's competely ITCZ. Too big of convection for plain ITCZ, heck it even got a meantion on our local news tonight at 5. and I'm in Illinois
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#56 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Wed Aug 22, 2007 7:21 pm

Looks like the NHC will add a wave at 40w with the next surface analysis.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 10N42W 9N58W. THE ITCZ
REMAINS HIGHLY ZONAL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND
36W. UW CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSES AND BACKWARD
EXTRAPOLATION OF A WAVE PASSAGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ON AUG 19
INDICATE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ADDED ON THE 0000 UTC SFC ANALYSIS.
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#57 Postby Zardoz » Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:42 pm

Still quite a bit of convection:

Image

It's really strung out now, though. Does that make development less likely?
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#58 Postby jhamps10 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:45 pm

Zardoz wrote:Still quite a bit of convection:

Image

It's really strung out now, though. Does that make development less likely?


Not really I don't think, actually it looks like it's 3 different waves according to that image.

I'm waiting till we get wording from NHC before Saying anything else to be honest.
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Re: Re:

#59 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:16 pm

jhamps10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:nothing but ITCZ traffic !!! out in the eastern atlantic


I'm not so sure it's competely ITCZ. Too big of convection for plain ITCZ, heck it even got a meantion on our local news tonight at 5. and I'm in Illinois


again the ITCZ TRAFFIC is moving right along

this is not typical for august to see such a "ZONAL" or flat ITCZ

I imagine it wont last very long but there is absolutely nothing out there right now
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Re: Re:

#60 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:nothing but ITCZ traffic !!! out in the eastern atlantic


I'm not so sure it's competely ITCZ. Too big of convection for plain ITCZ, heck it even got a meantion on our local news tonight at 5. and I'm in Illinois


again the ITCZ TRAFFIC is moving right along

this is not typical for august to see such a "ZONAL" or flat ITCZ

I imagine it wont last very long but there is absolutely nothing out there right now


Yep all is quite across the entire basin which sounds great to me in all honesty.Lets hope it continues.Adrian
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