CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

016
WTNT34 KNHC 222030
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
400 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN NOW A TROPICAL STORM INLAND OVER MEXICO...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING AND ADJUSTED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR 40
MILES...65 KM...WEST OF POZA RICA MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED UNTIL DEAN DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...98.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

WTNT44 KNHC 222031
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

AROUND 1630 UTC...THE CENTER OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE NEAR THE TOWN OF TECOLUTLA...ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH DEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
SET AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. DEAN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IS RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 20.5N 98.1W 60 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR 40
MILES...65 KM...WEST OF POZA RICA MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED UNTIL DEAN DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will only take dean a day and a half to cross Mexico.

[Derek Ortt]

and over some 15,000 foot peaks

I dont think this will make it as Dean

[Ed Mahmoud]

and over some 15,000 foot peaks

I dont think this will make it as Dean

Well, not the surface low, but 12Z GFS shows the 700 mb vort max making it over and passing near Cabo.

[Ptarmigan]

...Dean inland over Mexico and beginning to weaken...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico
from Coatzacoalcos northward to La Cruz.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of
Mexico from north of La Cruz to Bahia Algodones.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 100 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
inland near latitude 20.5 north...longitude 97.3 west or very near
poza rica Mexico.


Dean is moving toward the west near 19 mph...31 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight.


Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph...140 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Dean is now a category one hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Continued weakening is expected until Dean
dissipates over the mountains of central Mexico tonight.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275
miles...445 km...mainly to the northeast of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...29.00 inches.


Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is
possible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...near and
to the north of where the center made landfall.


Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
over parts of southern and central Mexico...with maximum amounts of
up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 100 PM CDT position...20.5 N...97.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 19 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85 mph.
Minimum central pressure...982 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
400 PM CDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin/Mainelli

Dean is quite large.

[Epsilon_Fan]

it looks halfway over Mexico now... or is the mid level circulation already uncoupled fro mthe LLC? Could the remnant low regenerate in the EPAc?

[cycloneye]

457
WTNT34 KNHC 222331
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
700 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...

AT 7 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST OR 75
MILES...120 KM...NORTH OF MEXICO CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
DEAN IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...99.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST OR 75
MILES...120 KM...NORTH OF MEXICO CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
DEAN IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

[baitism]

It looks like Dean has finally hit the wall.....

[Weatherfreak14]

Well, Dean is almost gone and it will bring mor flooding rains to mexico in the next couple of days and Deans last advisory i think will be 5am tommrow morning or 11pm tonight.

[Normandy]

Truly horrific pictures.
Mahahual took the western eyewall of Dean, which probably had surface winds approaching Category 5 strength (In the range of 150-155 mph likely), Dean's strongest winds likely were in a narrow band on its Northern eyewall. Even still, that damage is some of the most severe wind and water damage I have ever seen, and you truly know a high end Cat4 or Cat5 struck this area directly (the trees give the biggest clue).

Idea of what this place looked like before.

http://www.xcalak.info/images/mahahual/ ... _bar_l.jpg
http://www.caribbeanportreviews.com/Cos ... hahual.jpg
http://www.cancunfirstclass.com/propert ... hahual.jpg
http://www.mahahualmexico.com/images/Re ... hahual.jpg

It seems the only structure left standing in this town was the hotel, which likely was the strongest structure in the city. Even still, it was devastated and likely will need too be rebuilt.

What is the lesson from this? When a Category 4/5 hurricane is projected to get into your area, if you are anywhere near the coast get out or you will die.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it's making a run for EPAC.

[Coredesat]

Check the loop. While it is more than halfway across Mexico, there are no longer any signs of a circulation.

[cycloneye]

Check the loop. While it is more than halfway across Mexico, there are no longer any signs of a circulation.

I agree about that.The Sierra Madre did the job of trearing apart the circulation.They will write the last advisory at 10 PM CDT.

[Derek Ortt]

wikipedia is reporting 11 dead now in Haiti, but they still only have 1 dead in the DR

[cycloneye]

154
WTNT44 KNHC 230222
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DEAN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO
BUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE
FASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
REGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON WHAT WAS ONCE CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE DEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.5N 100.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

Good riddance!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC THU AUG 23 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 100.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 99.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




465
WTNT34 KNHC 230221
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...NORTHWEST OF MEXICO CITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION ACROSS MEXICO IS EXPECEDT TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DEAN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO
BUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE
FASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
REGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON WHAT WAS ONCE CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE DEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.5N 100.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

Good riddance... I do not expect to see you in 2013.

[Andrew92]

The end of a wild, wild storm. I just hope and pray that damage continues to be minimal due to hitting sparsely populated areas.

I've been holding up from doing this, but I can resist no more. Dean, yeah, you're pretty likely to get it after this season's over. Good riddance.

Godspeed be with the victims and the families of this hurricane, and may we do all we can to help clean the damage.

-Andrew92