Area of convection (Former 92L)

[gatorcane]

Observations along the Southeast Florida coastline. Notice the N/NW wind direction reported by some of the observations indicating a low level circulation off the coast:

W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 82 75 79 NW8 30.02R
FT LAUDER-EXEC SUNNY 84 74 71 N6 30.01S
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 86 73 65 N7 30.01R
POMPANO BEACH SUNNY 84 74 71 N7 30.01S
PEMBROKE PINES SUNNY 84 74 71 N7 30.03S
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 85 75 72 NW6 30.02R
MIAMI MOSUNNY 85 74 69 NE6 30.02R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 84 76 77 N5 30.01S
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 84 75 74 VRB6 30.02R
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 82 75 80 NW3 30.03R

[cpdaman]

you know i have had a hard time discerning where the ULL has been over the last two days, it seemed poorly defined (at least to me) and hurrakan your graphic helped out a bit

the LLC is barely moving and upper level conditions are changing for the better (IMO). i don't think the odds are better than 35% but with this thing being practically stalled at 77-77.5 west/27 north we shall see what the day brings

and i threw a couple crowe's in the over , just in case

P.S which way is this thing being steered NOW nw? drift?

[KatDaddy]

Yes there is a surface reflection for sure. Curious if this will float into the GOM during weekend. Small weak surface reflections can grow into tropical cyclones this time of year if the upper level conditions become favorable.

[boca]

you know i have had a hard time discerning where the ULL has been over the last two days, it seemed poorly defined (at least to me) and hurrakan your graphic helped out a bit

the LLC is barely moving and upper level conditions are changing for the better (IMO). i don't think the odds are better than 35% but with this thing being practically stalled at 77-77.5 west/27 north we shall see what the day brings

and i threw a couple crowe's in the over , just in case

The rotation by Grand Bahama/GreatAbaco could get energized by the moisture moving in from the SE. Its currently sandwitched in dry air and moist air leaving westboundover by Tampa.

[cpdaman]

don't see this floating into the GOM unless something decides to push it, at the pace it's moving it would take a long time. i think it may be pushed NW slowly(maybe N)

but the winds are picking up

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[gatorcane]

don't see this floating into the GOM unless something decides to push it, at the pace it's moving it would take a long time. i think it may be pushed NW slowly

but the winds are picking up

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Yes the winds are picking up but pressures are actually rising up to 30.02 inches.

[cpdaman]

anyone find a pressure report on abaco island

[boca]

I'm patiently waiting for our 92L wanna be to get juiced by the moisture to its SE. Its about 25 miles away but on its way.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

steering currents should push this NW slowly then a bend to the west. I don't see it having much time to get going before moving over the peninsula.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Long range radar loop out of Melbourne Fla. suggests there is some turning about 125 miles east of Melbourne.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami has yet to acknowledged this low-level feature as it calls for mostly E winds for its marine forecast for the waters off Palm Beach.

I expect them to update this to indicate N to NW winds expected today and tonight at about 10-15 mph.

Hazardous marine condition(s):
Short Term Forecast

AMZ650-670-232030-
/O.ROU.KMFL.MA.F.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
408 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007


TODAY
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET SUBSIDING TO
2 FEET OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

.UPDATE...
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS
MORNING...BUT IT ALSO HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS LOW HELPED TO KEEP THE CWA
MAINLY DRY OVER THE CWA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO
THE SINKING AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE LOW ALSO HELPED TO SET UP A
LAND BREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS THIS MORNING WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS WHERE OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR-SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING.

THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE CWA...AS THE STEERING FLOW IS
FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW IS ALSO LESS THAN 10
MPH...THEREFORE BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES SHOULD
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEING THE
MAIN SEA BREEZE THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA.

[tailgater]

I don't see why this one wouldn't( I know double negatives) develop in the next 48 hrs. From what I seen on the forecast models the ULL should continue to move off to the NW or WNW, might even start moving circulation to the north.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 1/vis0.gif

[windstorm99]

You can see a clear view here of the naked swirl with no convection.Dont see much happening there.

[gatorcane]

You can see a clear view here of the naked swirl with no convection.Dont see much happening there.

This Low is causing subsidence over the peninsula. It's actually the worse possible situation for parched central FL as instead of this thing coming across as a wave, the low that has developed is causing NW winds to bring in dry air...so chances of rain across central Florida will be very low today.

Perhaps as the low moves west and the winds come in out of the South and southeast will chances of rain increase.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[ronjon]

Interesting little feature. Lack of convection probably means it will die out over time. I noticed that pressure dropped 3 mb over the last 24 hrs at the buoy east of the Cape. It apparently is not moving so the longer it sits the better chances it can pop some convection. Does anyone remember the CMC model several days ago brought low pressure to almost this exact position and every so slowly drifted it W-NW across to Tampa - but it took it a couple of days. Maybe the CMC was on to something but just had the intensity wrong?

[boca]

That poor excuse for a low is drifting NE,you can see on the visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

That poor excuse for a low is drifting NE,you can see on the visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

I suppose a slight drift to the east - but to me its just wobbling around aimlessly. By the way, on SSD they have it labeled as a 1014 mb low.

[boca]

I'm alittle surprised that the low is not moving much because high is stll anchored over the SE US which pushed Dean westward all the way to Mexico. This low should start moving back westerly givern the position of the high.