05 vs 06 vs 07 Scorecard

[gtalum]

So for Florida the season typically doesn't end until November and that is about 7 weeks away.

November is more like 11 weeks away.

But I agree. 5 weeks is too soon for "end of season" especially for Florida.

[Frank2]

Maybe, but, I remember the 1979 season - after David and Frederic, everyone (including the NHC) was worried about what the rest of the season would bring, but, to everyone's surprise (and relief) it ended unusually early...

Frank

[dwg71]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 10th

2005 - 9/4/2 Last Storm HURRICANE IRENE formed 8/7. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed on 08/22. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 3/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL formed on 7/31. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 0/0/0 (So far)

August is nearly 1/3 gone and nothing yet.

I will be out of town next week (Vacation to Destin) I hope I get back and have nothing to update. 05 and 06 were both in a lull at this time and did not have any formation until 22nd and 23rd respectively.

[Ptarmigan]

1950 was a very active season and started late on August 12th.

1950 Hurricane Season

[Ptarmigan]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 10th

2005 - 9/4/2 Last Storm HURRICANE IRENE formed 8/7. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed on 08/22. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 3/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL formed on 7/31. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 0/0/0 (So far)

August is nearly 1/3 gone and nothing yet.

I will be out of town next week (Vacation to Destin) I hope I get back and have nothing to update. 05 and 06 were both in a lull at this time and did not have any formation until 22nd and 23rd respectively.

2005 was a freakish hurricane season.

[dwg71]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 19th

2005 - 9/4/2 Last Storm HURRICANE IRENE formed 8/7. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed on 08/22. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN formed on 8/14. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 60% gone and we have had 2 storms. Still ample time for a couple more in August, lets hope not.

[CrazyC83]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 10th

2005 - 9/4/2 Last Storm HURRICANE IRENE formed 8/7. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed on 08/22. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN formed on 8/14. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 60% gone and we have had 2 storms. Still ample time for a couple more in August, lets hope not.

I'm predicting 2 more storms in August - both hurricanes, one of them major.

[dwg71]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 22nd

2005 - 10/4/2 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed 8/22. Next Storm - MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA formed on 08/24. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM ERIN formed on 8/15. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 70% gone and we have had 2 storms. Still time for a couple more in August, lets hope not.

Also to note since 2004 was a late starting season like 2007, it was at 8/5/3 by 8/29.

[DelrayMorris]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 22nd

2005 - 10/4/2 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM JOSE formed 8/22. Next Storm - MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA formed on 08/24. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 4/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM CHRIS formed 08/01. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM DEBBY formed on 08/23. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN formed on 8/14. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 70% gone and we have had 2 storms. Still time for a couple more in August, lets hope not.

Also to note since 2004 was a late starting season like 2007, it was at 8/5/3 by 8/29.

What about Erin? Are we just counting hurricanes and not tropical storms?

[dwg71]

UPDATED as of August 24th

2005 - 11/5/3 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA formed 8/24. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM LEE formed on 08/31. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 5/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE formed 08/23. Next Storm - HURRICANE ERNESTO formed on 08/25. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM ERIN formed on 8/15. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 75% gone and we have had 2 storms. Still time for a storm or 2 in August, lets hope not.

Also to note since 2004 was a late starting season like 2007, it was at 8/5/3 by 8/29.

[DelrayMorris]

UPDATED as of August 24th

2005 - 11/5/3 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA formed 8/24. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM LEE formed on 08/31. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 5/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE formed 08/23. Next Storm - HURRICANE ERNESTO formed on 08/25. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN formed on 8/14. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 75% gone and we have had 2 storms. Still time for a storm or 2 in August, lets hope not.

Also to note since 2004 was a late starting season like 2007, it was at 8/5/3 by 8/29.

Again, we seem to be missing Tropical Storm Erin, which formed on 8/14, bringing the totals to 6/1/1 and the August totals to 3/1/1

[dwg71]

A - E is 5 storms.

[DelrayMorris]

A - E is 5 storms.

Sorry about that. You are right about that. You still have 2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN formed on 8/14. But Erin was the last storm, wasn't she?

[HURAKAN]

A - E is 5 storms.

Sorry about that. You are right about that. You still have 2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN formed on 8/14. But Erin was the last storm, wasn't she?

I guess it is true that Erin was the last storm but Dean was the last to dissipate. Maybe that is what was implied.

[dwg71]

I've corrected it, Erin was technically the last to form.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

UPDATED as of August 24th

2006 - 5/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE formed 08/23. Next Storm - HURRICANE ERNESTO formed on 08/25. Season Total 10/5/2

Actually, shouldn't 2006 be 4/0/0 as of August 24th, considering the 5th storm, Ernesto, didn't form until the 25th...?

[dwg71]

UPDATED as of August 24th

2006 - 5/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE formed 08/23. Next Storm - HURRICANE ERNESTO formed on 08/25. Season Total 10/5/2

Actually, shouldn't 2006 be 4/0/0 as of August 24th, considering the 5th storm, Ernesto, didn't form until the 25th...?

There was a No Named Storm last year... Numbers are correct.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

UPDATED as of August 24th

2006 - 5/0/0 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE formed 08/23. Next Storm - HURRICANE ERNESTO formed on 08/25. Season Total 10/5/2

Actually, shouldn't 2006 be 4/0/0 as of August 24th, considering the 5th storm, Ernesto, didn't form until the 25th...?

There was a No Named Storm last year... Numbers are correct.

Oops, you're right - my bad! I should have noticed this both from the previous page of this thread and Unisys.

[dwg71]

I've done this the past two seasons. This is an information thread only. This is not an opinion as to activity levels this hurricane season. This will just be a comparison of formation dates for the last three seasons.


As of August 26th

2005 - 11/5/3 Last Storm MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA formed 8/24. Next Storm - TROPICAL STORM LEE formed on 08/31. Season Total 28/15/7

2006 - 6/1/0 Last Storm HURRICANE ERNESTO formed 08/25. Next Storm - HURRICANE FLORENCE formed on 09/05. Season Total 10/5/2

2007 - 5/1/1 Last Storm TROPICAL STORM ERIN formed on 8/15. Next Storm - ??? Season Total ???.

August totals for 2005 - 5/2/1, 2006 - 3/1/0 2007- 2/1/1 (So far)

August is nearly 85% gone and we have only had 2 storms. Still time for a storm in August, lets hope not. We are now behind 2006's pace.

[KWT]

Thanks dwg, its really interesting to see those stats, even more so to see just how far ahead 05 was at this point!

For what its worth here is 2001, probably one of the closer matches right now:

4/0/0

FWIW also here is the ACE between 95-07 upto 0z 24th August or compared to the 95-06 average end of season ACE, 18.4% of the way through, that surely shows that we are only now at the stage where things usually rammp up (ps, may be a few small errors but think its pretty accurate)

1995---56.07
1996---27.60
1997---11.21
1998---11.74
1999---18.67
2000---43.58
2001---10.64
2002---3.35
2003---19.92
2004---37.49
2005---82.33
2006---9.54

Finally 2007 upto the 24th:

2007---35.5