Area of convection (Former 92L)

[fci]

Interesting little feature. Lack of convection probably means it will die out over time. I noticed that pressure dropped 3 mb over the last 24 hrs at the buoy east of the Cape. It apparently is not moving so the longer it sits the better chances it can pop some convection. Does anyone remember the CMC model several days ago brought low pressure to almost this exact position and every so slowly drifted it W-NW across to Tampa - but it took it a couple of days. Maybe the CMC was on to something but just had the intensity wrong?

Actually today was D-DAY for the models to bring Dean here; so it said about 2 weeks aho.
It is also D-DAY that the CMC had to bring the system formally know as 92L as a Hurricane here too.
LOL!!!!

And for those who on Monday thought that 92L would be a TS coming here today or tomorrow

[gatorcane]

The meteorological explanation is simple. This invest flared up NE of the Leewards because it was a wave interacting with the ULL. Usually tropical formation does not happen in this case but the convection can look impressive. I bit on it and shouldn't have. the ULL was supposed to weaken and a building bermuda ridge was supposed to provide favorable ULL conditions for this invest. The problem was that the ULL moved West in tandem with the invest and the ULL conditions did not become favorable because of it.

Again we were saved by yet another ULL...just like 2006

[x-y-no]

Interesting little feature. Lack of convection probably means it will die out over time. I noticed that pressure dropped 3 mb over the last 24 hrs at the buoy east of the Cape. It apparently is not moving so the longer it sits the better chances it can pop some convection. Does anyone remember the CMC model several days ago brought low pressure to almost this exact position and every so slowly drifted it W-NW across to Tampa - but it took it a couple of days. Maybe the CMC was on to something but just had the intensity wrong?

Yeah, the CMC correctly latched onto this feature, but as usual it went nuts with intensity.

So far this is showing no sign of firing any convection anywhere near the center ... if it can hold some structure as it drifts across the peninsula, maybe it can do something in the Gulf.

[Sanibel]

The computer in my head just said "tropical formation alert"

92L just activated east of Florida in a naked surface spiral.

[Tropics Guy]

Well after tracking a Cat 5 Hurricane, we've been reduced to "naked swirl watching"! LOL

TG

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[hial2]

To confirm..is 92l back?

[Cuber]

Nah ...Dean sucked the life out of it

[DESTRUCTION5]

Shear is still relentless...Nothing going to happen here folks..

[SouthFloridawx]

Man... we've been trying get spin with those waves, and finally we got one with spin, just no convection. (Minus Dean)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

[SouthFloridawx]

The Ghost of Frances, is that you?

[Cuber]

HEY ... go easy on those "F" words all we need is a apparition of Frances named Felix

[AnnularCane]

I didn't know SE LA was in the cone for Frances. I guess I forgot.

Is Dean really responsible for 92L's demise? I mean, they weren't that close together. Did he create the shear? Take up a lot of energy?

[cpdaman]

the ghost of frances would probably be found somewhere near the cape verde islands (since frances was a long-tracker)

but that storm did slow down to a crawl right before it decided to say hello and take down a million trees.

i wish i had a better shear map that was more accurate, because the shear maps show low shear and things are.....not quite low. (say that 5 times fast) do they not have accurate shear maps so i can understand this storms surrounding more anyway gotta watch it...its right out the window


p.s maybe a thigh high swell at delray beach (in the am)

[tailgater]

Man... we've been trying get spin with those waves, and finally we got one with spin, just no convection. (Minus Dean)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

There's a baby naked swirl looking for it's mother, @27N 71W at least the baby has has one T-storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Man... we've been trying get spin with those waves, and finally we got one with spin, just no convection. (Minus Dean)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

There's a baby naked swirl looking for it's mother, @27N 71W at least the baby has has one T-storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Yeah that little booger has been there since at least yesterday. Been keeping an eye on just in case. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97335

[SouthFloridawx]

Come on interaction with sea breeze boundaries!

[Cyclone1]

This is way cool, but I bet it doesn't form. Still, rain for me.

[artist]

Miami's discussion on it -

THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
HAS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...DUE TO THE WEAKENING LOW NORTH OF
THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT. SO WILL END THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS...AND KEEP
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS.

THE SMOKE FROM THE BRUSH FIRE OVER THE EVERGLADES OF NORTHWEST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COULD BLOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN METRO AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LAND BREEZE SETTING UP OVER THIS AREA. SO WILL
ADD PATCHY SMOKE TO THIS AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE LOW SHOULD BE DISSIPATED ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO CONTROL SOUTH
FLORID`S WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP...AND ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE CWA. SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST AREAS ON FRIDAY.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... discussion

[cpdaman]

water vapor shows much moister air moving over currently dry circulation near abaco

there appears to be a possible drop off in shear as well ( tough to tell since shear maps are not that consistent/accurate)

it also appears to have started moving about 5 miles an hour in a general west direction. so this is it's last chance IMO