Waiting for the On-Switch
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Waiting for the On-Switch
It is simply impossible to believe this season is going to end quietly. It is only August 23rd, and we are through 5 named storms and a category 5 hurricane. I realize the models aren’t sniffing anything out right now for the next 5 days (and beyond)…however…this is not unusual, even in active seasons.
This reminds me a lot of 1998...things were quiet...and boom. Everything lit up at once.
Currently, for the most part, the Atlantic has been relatively quiet. Dean was an anomaly. It was so well organized before it ever came off the coast that it needed only a marginal environment to get going...then took advantage of ideal conditions in the western Atlantic.
In 1995 we only had 3 named storms develop in September…in an otherwise hyperactive season. It’s coming, even if the models aren’t smelling it yet.
There does appear to be an area worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.
The wave that just moved from the African coast is it.
Satellite imagery is not that impressive, thunderstorm activity is minimal and there is some easterly mid-level shear. However…the 12Z GFS and 12ZZ UKMET models both seem to be a little more defined with the low-level vorticity structure than they have been, with the GFS tracking an intermittent low across the Atlantic before losing it in the Caribbean in the second half of the model runs.
Although the environment out ahead of the wave is relatively dry, the wave itself has a little more moisture content to work with.
I think this very well could a case when it’s important to start watching the trends in the models and the atmosphere. We are rapidly trending toward the peak of the season, Pacific SST’s are running well below normal, and it appears that everything is setting up for a very active Atlantic from essentially now until the end of October…with a few lulls here and there.
This wave out near 20W is not going to rapidly develop…this is going to be something we will need to watch for days. It will be very interesting to see how the next few sets of models handle this feature. If it continues to get better defined in the guidance…this could be our next sleeper system as we get into next week.
Soon, and it may not be until the first week of Sept...but soon the switch will flip to on, and we will be busy here.
MW
This reminds me a lot of 1998...things were quiet...and boom. Everything lit up at once.
Currently, for the most part, the Atlantic has been relatively quiet. Dean was an anomaly. It was so well organized before it ever came off the coast that it needed only a marginal environment to get going...then took advantage of ideal conditions in the western Atlantic.
In 1995 we only had 3 named storms develop in September…in an otherwise hyperactive season. It’s coming, even if the models aren’t smelling it yet.
There does appear to be an area worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.
The wave that just moved from the African coast is it.
Satellite imagery is not that impressive, thunderstorm activity is minimal and there is some easterly mid-level shear. However…the 12Z GFS and 12ZZ UKMET models both seem to be a little more defined with the low-level vorticity structure than they have been, with the GFS tracking an intermittent low across the Atlantic before losing it in the Caribbean in the second half of the model runs.
Although the environment out ahead of the wave is relatively dry, the wave itself has a little more moisture content to work with.
I think this very well could a case when it’s important to start watching the trends in the models and the atmosphere. We are rapidly trending toward the peak of the season, Pacific SST’s are running well below normal, and it appears that everything is setting up for a very active Atlantic from essentially now until the end of October…with a few lulls here and there.
This wave out near 20W is not going to rapidly develop…this is going to be something we will need to watch for days. It will be very interesting to see how the next few sets of models handle this feature. If it continues to get better defined in the guidance…this could be our next sleeper system as we get into next week.
Soon, and it may not be until the first week of Sept...but soon the switch will flip to on, and we will be busy here.
MW
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
How the heck can you see the 2007 season door is starting to close when it's only August 23rd. Just because we don't see anything out there for the next week means absolutely nothing this early in the season. Perhaps if it was late September, your post would make more sense.....
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- GeneratorPower
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
Impressive post. Perhaps you can give us some science, like MWatkins did, to back it up?
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- hurricanetrack
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
It seems to me that people (not all, but some) have forgotten 2002 with September and its 8 named storms.
Also, the MJO needs to re-establish itself and move in to the Basin.
And last, it seems to me that if Dean had hit Texas that the squeaky door would not be so much closing as it would be wide open. Geez, first hurricane out of the gate in 2007 is a cat-5 and people (some people) are not satisfied- if that is the correct word to use.
Great post from a knowledgeable man- Watkins.
Also, the MJO needs to re-establish itself and move in to the Basin.
And last, it seems to me that if Dean had hit Texas that the squeaky door would not be so much closing as it would be wide open. Geez, first hurricane out of the gate in 2007 is a cat-5 and people (some people) are not satisfied- if that is the correct word to use.
Great post from a knowledgeable man- Watkins.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
ConvergenceZone wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
How the heck can you see the 2007 season door is starting to close when it's only August 23rd. Just because we don't see anything out there for the next week means absolutely nothing this early in the season. Perhaps if it was late September, your post would make more sense.....
we are a week away from the statistical 1/2 way point. So if the second "half" plays out like the first then we will be at 10/2/2. If we make it 17 more days until the climatological (is that even a word

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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
GeneratorPower wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
Impressive post. Perhaps you can give us some science, like MWatkins did, to back it up?
It's all based on how the season has gone so far. Come on now admit except for Dean it's been a lot like last season. If you go by history the "bulk" of major development has happened between the August 15th and September 15th. It is now August 23rd and nothing it is on the horizon and even the models don't see anything. I didn't say the season was closed, actually I said it wasn't but only the door is starting to close as we go into September. Yeah I know we haven't peaked yet that's why I said we would probably have another cat.3 or higher storm but do I think we will have 9-10 more storms....no. IMO
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
Season cancel!
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
I think the switch will be off and on, conditions aren't good this week because of the strength of the Azores high. Will we get 13-16 storms maybe.I think we'll get around 10 like last year. I don't see it being as active as people say, its my opinion. So far we had 5 and 5 more seems reasonable if we could get spin on these waves.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Wow, Dean is barely gone and the "season is over" predictions are already back full-force?
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
You are kidding right, we don't get cold fronts in Houston until at least Halloween.

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- BayouVenteux
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Stormcenter wrote:It's all based on how the season has gone so far. Come on now admit except for Dean it's been a lot like last season. If you go by history the "bulk" of major development has happened between the August 15th and September 15th. It is now August 23rd and nothing it is on the horizon and even the models don't see anything. I didn't say the season was closed, actually I said it wasn't but only the door is starting to close as we go into September. Yeah I know we haven't peaked yet that's why I said we would probably have another cat.3 or higher storm but do I think we will have 9-10 more storms....no. IMO
MW's '98 analogy may wind up being a good one if the NOAA and CSU seasonal forecasts verify within reason. On this date (8/23) in 1998 we were "only" on the "C" storm – following major Hurricane Bonnie – with Tropical Storm Charley, which was named on 8/21. The "D" storm, Danielle (eventually to become a hurricane), would be designated on 8/24/98.
How did that apparently "slow" season end numbers-wise as it progressed from August into September and October?
14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 majors
Sure it's only one season to compare against, but that said, "closing the door" 3 1/2 weeks into August seems a wee bit premature, no?
Be sure to bump this thread in October if you're spot on...and I'll do the same if you're not.

Last edited by BayouVenteux on Thu Aug 23, 2007 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
rainman31 wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.
You are kidding right, we don't get cold fronts in Houston until at least Halloween.
Actually Fronts start mid to late Sept. My wedding in 1995 on the 23rd, was a pleasent fall day with highs in the low 80's.
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- hurricanetrack
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There is always a chance the season will be below normal or normal. However, that chance is very small this year, but it is there, so we will see.
I think sometimes people post "debbie downer" posts without any merit other than to just get other people fired up. While opinions matter and count, I do really think that some posts are meant to stoke flames of those who are looking forward to an active season. It is fine to look forward to an active season, nothing wrong with that. It is also okay to post your thoughts about why the season will not be active. However, I just get the feeling that some posts are more meaningful and in-depth than others. Am I the only one who feels this?
I will also say again that I think 2005 spoiled a lot of us. There were so many named storms in every month of the season that it was just freaking nuts. Now that we have a regular ole, run of the mill "active" season, it seems boring. And I guess it is, really. But there is no evidence that I can find to suggest that this season is about over. If there is, then by all means point it out and let's make sure NOAA and CSU (among others) are aware of such "unexpected" conditions. Otherwise be patient. Use this time to make darn sure you are capable of handling a major hurricane landfall at your location. Consider this down time a nice blessing- who knows what we'll be saying on September 23.
I think sometimes people post "debbie downer" posts without any merit other than to just get other people fired up. While opinions matter and count, I do really think that some posts are meant to stoke flames of those who are looking forward to an active season. It is fine to look forward to an active season, nothing wrong with that. It is also okay to post your thoughts about why the season will not be active. However, I just get the feeling that some posts are more meaningful and in-depth than others. Am I the only one who feels this?
I will also say again that I think 2005 spoiled a lot of us. There were so many named storms in every month of the season that it was just freaking nuts. Now that we have a regular ole, run of the mill "active" season, it seems boring. And I guess it is, really. But there is no evidence that I can find to suggest that this season is about over. If there is, then by all means point it out and let's make sure NOAA and CSU (among others) are aware of such "unexpected" conditions. Otherwise be patient. Use this time to make darn sure you are capable of handling a major hurricane landfall at your location. Consider this down time a nice blessing- who knows what we'll be saying on September 23.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms?
Well 2001 at this point had just 4 named storms and no hurricanes and yet by the end of the season we had 15 named storms, which 11 of them formed from 1st September onwards, plenty of time to play with yet.
2000 also had just 4 storms at this point and that season also had 11 more storms. 1999 only saw Bret arrive on the 18th and they had another 10 named storms from the 18th onwards...1998 saw Danielle form on the 24th and ended with another 10 named storms.
Saw in answer, we could easily still have another 8-10 named storms from now till the end of the season, esp as La nina tends to lengthen the season as well.
Also lets not forget Dean was the 9th strongest hurricane ever, it was an historic hurricane, that on its own was probably more interesting then the whole of the 06 season!
Last edited by KWT on Thu Aug 23, 2007 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
I would say this reminds me more of 1999 than 1998. 1998 had that incredible durst of activity that started around this time, but then really only had Mitch afterward.
This seems more like 1999... a long, drawn out season sending one threat at a time, making a seaosn with 12 storms (albiet with 5 becoming cat 4 hurricanes) being more active that it really was.
This seems more like 1999... a long, drawn out season sending one threat at a time, making a seaosn with 12 storms (albiet with 5 becoming cat 4 hurricanes) being more active that it really was.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
I know Florida stays open all the way through late October, but Rita was really following climatology in pulling up just short of a Texas landfall. Late September is hard, October, with a single barely a Cat 1 Jerry in 1989, has 1 hurricane landfalling in Texas in six decades.
So September 10th may be the peak, but Texas is pretty much done in a little over a month as the Westerlies make their migration South.
So September 10th may be the peak, but Texas is pretty much done in a little over a month as the Westerlies make their migration South.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch
rainman31 wrote:Stormcenter wrote:
You are kidding right, we don't get cold fronts in Houston until at least Halloween.
Funny you mention that date..I remember one specific Halloween wayyyyy back in the early 80s,before "GW", that I took my kids t/treating wrapped in blankets...in MIAMI..the last "real" winter there was in 1989..
I
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