Waiting for the On-Switch

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi, speaking of October and Florida, has strongly implied Florida gets one in October.

[fci]

"You are kidding right, we don't get cold fronts in Houston until at least Halloween."

Got a cold front down in South Florida around October 25th a couple of years ago.
Oh I think it was ushered in my a little storm called Wilma!

A few comments:
- Mike is absolutely correct that there is more to come.
- This DOES look like a less active than usual season RIGHT NOW. Doesn't mean that it will stay that way but logically, it should remain a quieter than normal season. Just mathematical common sense.
Can that be wrong and we have 8 storms in September and 5 in October? Sure. But LOGICALLY if it is slower than normal it looks to be a trend for the season. There is a REASON; be it ULL's SAL, Shear, Mother Nature is tired, etc..., etc... that this season has been slow. So IF whatever conditions that have made this season slow; continue; we will have a slower than normal total season. Just logic, folks.
- Cold fronts coming down are frightening for Florida because they have a tendency to pick up systems from the boiling waters of the Carib. So, "cold front" time does not thrill us down here (except for the possibility of lower humidity)
- Joe Bastardi does not own a crystal ball that can predict Florida will get one in Florida. Climatalogically, it makes sense so he is no Karnac the Magnificent here! (No I am not trashing JB, I would make the same comment about ANYONE who makes such a "bold" proclamation. Pulease!!)
- PLEASE stop with "season cancel" comments. Even as a joke, some actually believe people mean it and on August 23rd; it is an absurd comment. Come on!
fci

[Stormcenter]

Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.

You are kidding right, we don't get cold fronts in Houston until at least Halloween.

What about a dry line with lower dew points and northerly winds? How does that sound?
By the way I did not say the season was "cancelled". I was only implying that if those high prediction number (15-17)are going to met then we better get cranking otherwise the door is closing and we'll end up having an average to below average season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston gets fronts earlier than Halloween, usually the first (granted, brief) significant cool down is mid-September, and by October, a 90ºF (32ºC) day is somewhat unusual.



I do remember, 1995 I think, when I wa sin college in Austin. 99ºF in February, and freezing drizzle a week later.


One of the good things about Texas, while most of the winter is mild, unlike some other states that extend South of 30ºN, not being surrounded on all sides by ocean means we do get all 4 seasons.


I have a funny feeling that while a TD might form (as seen on 12Z GFS for middle of next week), maybe even a tropical storm, there won't be another hurricane this month. Strictly based on looking at models. When even the Canadian goes several runs w/o a hurricane, you know a slow week is likely ahead.

[KWT]

stormcenter what would you call an above average season??

If Derek is right while the numbers may not be quite as high as forecasted the ACE could end up being quite high as several of those systems were quite long tracking, indeed we've already seen one such system this season, Dean and we also had 99L which was a long tracker, tohugh that came a little too early.

fci, interesting but we could have no more storms this August and be average for the season overall, so its not exactly slow. 2006 was close to this season so far but it got shut down very early due to that rpaidly developing El nino, if look between the 15th August to 15th September it had 1 TS, 2 hurricanes and a 2 major hurricanes. Then it got closed down by El nino. This season if anything will see the opposite to that occur thanks to La nina.

(ps, Derek, would a season like 1964 also be something like what you state in terms of steady actvity?)

[gatorcane]

Those in South Florida know that the worst month is typically October for us......if we haven't seen anything by Halloween then I say we are good.

How about Tampa Bay...the major that hit them was back in late October in 1921.....

I actually fear late September and October with the potential hits from the South that ride along and up an approaching short-wave more than August here in South Florida. In august most storms from the east find a way to either curve or stay to the south.

[Stormcenter]

It's all based on how the season has gone so far. Come on now admit except for Dean it's been a lot like last season. If you go by history the "bulk" of major development has happened between the August 15th and September 15th. It is now August 23rd and nothing it is on the horizon and even the models don't see anything. I didn't say the season was closed, actually I said it wasn't but only the door is starting to close as we go into September. Yeah I know we haven't peaked yet that's why I said we would probably have another cat.3 or higher storm but do I think we will have 9-10 more storms....no. IMO

MW's '98 analogy may wind up being a good one if the NOAA and CSU seasonal forecasts verify within reason. On this date (8/23) in 1998 we were "only" on the "C" storm – following major Hurricane Bonnie – with Tropical Storm Charley, which was named on 8/21. The "D" storm, Danielle (eventually to become a hurricane), would be designated on 8/24/98.

How did that apparently "slow" season end numbers-wise as it progressed from August into September and October?

14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 majors

Sure it's only one season to compare against, but that said, "closing the door" 3 1/2 weeks into August seems a wee bit premature, no?

Be sure to bump this thread in October if you're spot on...and I'll do the same if you're not.

Will do.

[OuterBanker]

Derek, please refrain from using 1999 as a comparable. Only Mitch! I beg to differ, we here kinda remember Dennis and Floyd. Dennis the menace would'nt go away (longest stretch in local EOC to date). And Floyd was the worse natural disaster in NC history. 2000 and 2001 were good to us though.

[Brent]

Well, that didn't take long to declare the season over(again). Start watching for the first freeze now... Last time people did this we got a Cat 5.

I do think we won't see anything perhaps for the rest of the month though.

[x-y-no]

Got a cold front down in South Florida around October 25th a couple of years ago.
Oh I think it was ushered in my a little storm called Wilma!

Yeah, that was the one and only good thing about Wilma ... blessedly cool weather for at least the first few days that the power was out.

[flwxwatcher]

If you go by history the "bulk" of major development has happened between the August 15th and September 15th

Well.. I think you need to extend that to October 15th . The frequency chart below shows its not really until we get past Mid October when things start to really tail off.

[Beam]

Joe Bastardi, speaking of October and Florida, has strongly implied Florida gets one in October.

If half the stuff that guy "strongly implied" actually happened, we wouldn't have an east coast anymore. It's much more fun to forecast using science!

[rjgator]

One good thing is that when it is quiet I can actually get some work done. It feels strange not to spend all nught watching the storms. Kinda a downer.

[UpTheCreek]

I moved here (NC) in Spring, 2003. This was my first time living in Hurricane territory and that year affected me greatly. We didn't have much all summer, all through August and after a week or so into September I was thinking what the heck is the big deal with all this hurricane hype anyway? It was around that time I joined Storm2k because a little thing called Isabel was on it's way.....it had reached a top of 165mph and a low pressure of 915mb. Wonder why it has me a join date of '04? Anyway, it took 16 people with her too, so no, I don't declare it's over until I pack my shorts away!

[Cyclone1]

Joe Bastardi, speaking of October and Florida, has strongly implied Florida gets one in October.

If half the stuff that guy "strongly implied" actually happened, we wouldn't have an east coast anymore. It's much more fun to forecast using science!

I have science. In October, a La Nina is forecast to be in effect, which means lower sheer and warmer waters. Storms will form easily in the Western Caribbean in these conditions, and in October, the Jet stream will be positioned near the south east. Hurricane comes up, takes a one-way track into Florida. I believe Bastardi is onto something. However, it's all up to chance. Perfect conditions mean nothing without an actual storm.

[windstorm99]

For what is worth the SAL has nearly vanished from the eastern atlantic which could be a bad sign for the coming weeks.

[Scorpion]

Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.

How the heck can you see the 2007 season door is starting to close when it's only August 23rd. Just because we don't see anything out there for the next week means absolutely nothing this early in the season. Perhaps if it was late September, your post would make more sense.....

we are a week away from the statistical 1/2 way point. So if the second "half" plays out like the first then we will be at 10/2/2. If we make it 17 more days until the climatological (is that even a word ) 1/2 way point with zero or 1 storm, then a season of 10-12 storms is possible. I know for here on the western gulf (Houston), I mark every day off the calendar until we get to 10/1. The odds go way down after that of having a hurricane affect us.

Yes, but the second half of the season is always much more active than the first one.

[Frank2]

I'll take a big guess and say the final tally will be...

8/2/1

I really don't think we'll see too much more action - the current surpressed environment in the Atlantic is very impressive for this time of year...

Also, over the past 2 or 3 weeks, the cold fronts seem to be making an early southward migration, so, we might see the season come to an early end...

Just a guess, folks...

[boca]

I'll take a big guess and say the final tally will be...

8/2/1

I really don't think we'll see too much more action - the current surpressed environment in the Atlantic is very impressive for this time of year...

Also, over the past 2 or 3 weeks, the cold fronts seem to be making an early southward migration, so, we might see the season come to an early end...

Just a guess, folks...

Wow you think it will be less active than 2006 when we had EL Nino.I posted that we would have 10 named storms,I do agree with you on this season.The light switch is off.Maybe switching on twice.

[Frank2]

We, the truth is that we are almost in September, and, many a hurricane season ended in September - folks keep referring to 2005, but, that was an exception, not the rule...

Even those at the HRD or NHC will acknowledge that the Cape Verde season begins to wane after mid-September...

And, some here might correct me, but, aren't we in a "favorable" MJO phase - looking at the Atlantic, you wouldn't think so...