Bay of Campeche

[vaffie]

I will be watching the SW Caribbean. Convection has dramatically increased today--possibly the result of an interaction with an ULL over the eastern Caribbean. Pressures are low~1010 mb or less. The NAM appears to form a low out of it and drifts it north towards the Florida Keys--where it appears to sort of merge with 92L to create a lot of rain over south Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

[cflweather]

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[gatorcane]

bump

[Meso]

[LaBreeze]

Hmmm, interesting to say the least.

[gatorcane]

Recall that Erin formed from a combination of a ULL and a wave. The ULL eventually moved out to the west and left a circulation that worked its way down to the surface.

[vaffie]

Pressures are falling in the area. A ship in the last hour going through has reported 1008 mb where the convection had been the strongest over the course of the day.

- - - - - - -
SHIP S 0000 13.40 -75.70 200 200 110 6.0 - 0.5 6.0 - - 1008.0 -1.0 27.5 - 23.4 10 7 - 2.0 10.0 90 - - - ---- -----


Convection has died down but is starting again in the same area in the last 45 minutes. At this rate, by tomorrow night, we may have a circulation.

[kranki]

I am not getting excited about this. Yes, I see the rotation, but I also see everything in and around it dissipating such as the tropical wave that was supposed to hit S FL. I do see the low tightening, but I don't see any storm growth. Actually, I see the opposite. I am a neophyte, so chastise me all that you want.

[wxmann_91]

Coincidentally, I was JUST thinking this.

Nice monsoonal trough in the area, enhanced vorticity
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Also, prior strong storms such as Sepat and Wilma back in 05 formed right after the monsoonal trough was enhanced by an ULL (in this case, Dean is doing its work too).

I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm form in this area in the next 5 days. Shear looks favorable and there'll be an ULL over the ctrl ATL doing its part on ventilation. One limiting factor seems to be land.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bumped for blob alert...Looks better than our friend east of FL..

[tolakram]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

Where is this and is this the area under discussion? The Tropical RAMSDIS just repositioned over this area. I'm not familiar with how they operate so this may be nothing.

[Steve]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

From the watervapor loop, it looks like classic pattern reversal to me. You have a wave up against a semi-weak ULL with what appears to be somewhat of an anticyclone forming above it with a push/flow in the mid-Gulf E-W.

Odds are obviously less than 50/50, but this is one of the ways close-in systems form. Wave gets sheared; ULL backs off W, WSW or SW, high builds overtop, spin pre-existing or provided by spark from trailing wave (not in this case fwiw) and *BAM* you've got the makings of a tropical low.

My odds on this becoming anything before getting to Mexico or South Texas would be 31.2758%

Steve

[lrak]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

at 20N 80W it looks to be really spinning at the surface near the Caymans?

[LaBreeze]

Any report on Cayman weather with this?

[tolakram]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

I'm not sure, it kind of looks like clouds going in different directions at different altitudes.

[vaffie]

Pretty interesting stuff-the 0Z Canadian, GFS and Nogaps have started forecasting a closed low developing in the SW Caribbean moving northwest into the Bay of Campeche. The 0Z GFS has a weaker version of it, though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[LJR]

Any report on Cayman weather with this?

This was on stormcarib.com

- Cloudy
From: William Mc Taggart <wmctagga at candw.ky>
Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2007 09:19:20 -0500

Looks like we may be in for some much need rain today. We need it to wash the salt off of the foliage, courtesy of Dean.
The system that is seen on the satellite pictures is now passing through Grand Cayman. Light drizzle now and I hear distant thunder.

The official forecast calls for:
Partly cloudy skies this morning becoming cloudy to overcast with scattered showers and some thunder by early afternoon. Showers will be locally heavy at times.
Winds over open sea East to southeast 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts in and around heavy showers.
Sea State Moderate seas with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

Current Conditions:
Overcast with light drizzle
Temperature 78°F
Humidity 86%
Winds E - SE 10 - 15 knots with highter gusts
Barometer 29.99" or 1015.7 hPa

Have a great day. To work I must go.

--
Local Weather Information
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =I90580545 My Station
http://www.weatherincayman.com/ Several Local Weather Stations
http://www.gov.ky/portal/page?_pageid=1 ... ema=PORTAL Official Weather Forecast

[Meso]

[gatorcane]

where is the low forecasted to go by the NAM...west in the EPAC?

[Meso]

Well out to 42 hours out so far,and it's going the same way as the CMC,N-NW