Waiting for the On-Switch

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, a real impressive wave is three days or so from the coast of Africa. It'll take at least 3 more days after that to be a depression, IMHO.


The tropics look as dead as can be for the end of August

No named storms, in my amateur opinion, the rest of August. I don't think that is that big a limb to crawl out on, either.


A normal season seems reasonable, the 13 or 15 numbers seems off. We are at 5 because of a sub-tropical preseason development and a barely classifiable Barry. But because we are at 5, and the West Caribbean propably pops one in October, 10 seems attainable.

[cycloneye]

We, the truth is that we are almost in September, and, many a hurricane season ended in September - folks keep referring to 2005, but, that was an exception, not the rule...

Even those at the HRD or NHC will acknowledge that the Cape Verde season begins to wane after mid-September...

And, some here might correct me, but, aren't we in a "favorable" MJO phase - looking at the Atlantic, you wouldn't think so...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

Go to weekly updates section there.MJO is not a factor at this time.

[Frank2]

Yes, it seems we are in a neutral MJO phase at this time...

A normal season seems reasonable, the 13 or 15 numbers seems off. We are at 5 because of a sub-tropical preseason development and a barely classifiable Barry. But because we are at 5, and the West Caribbean propably pops one in October, 10 seems attainable.

I agree completely - truly, if not for the sub-tropical system (more a gale center than anything) and the very questionable Barry, we'd only be at 3/1/1 at this time - aside from Dean, just a very average season....

Just a guess here, but, if this season turns out to be average, look for most to back way off on the 2008 forecasts, some perhaps even saying that we are now back to more "normal" Atlantic hurricane seasons....

From my own experience, if there's one thing most media figures do not like, it's when they keep predicting an outcome - and it doesn't happen. When that happens, they usually are eager to abandon that for the next thing - loyal to one outcome they are not...

No doubt, those at TWC and other media outlets are going to be under pressure to abandon the "another active hurricane season" theme for something else (perhaps a very active spring severe weather season, or, a very above-normal summer temperature average), since they do not want to jepordize their creditability...

It's probably one reason TWC and others were eager, last year and this, to send their OCM's to foreign locations to cover a landfalling hurricane - as if to salvage their reputation of covering something that would usually only require them to make a trip to a beachfront Holiday Inn...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes, it seems we are in a neutral MJO phase at this time...

A normal season seems reasonable, the 13 or 15 numbers seems off. We are at 5 because of a sub-tropical preseason development and a barely classifiable Barry. But because we are at 5, and the West Caribbean propably pops one in October, 10 seems attainable.

I agree completely - truly, if not for the sub-tropical system (more a gale center than anything) and the very questionable Barry, we'd only be at 3/1/1 at this time - aside from Dean, just a very average season....

Just a guess here, but, if this season turns out to be average, look for most to back way off on the 2008 forecasts, some perhaps even saying that we are now back to more "normal" Atlantic hurricane seasons....

If there's one thing most media figures do not like, it's when they keep predicting an outcome - and it doesn't happen. When that happens, they usually are eager to abandon that for the next thing - loyal to one outcome they are not...

No doubt, those at TWC and other weather media outlets are going to be under pressure to abandon the "another active hurricane season" theme for something else, since they do not want to jepordize their creditibility...

Well its that time of the year for ol Frank to come on out and give his below 10 storm prediction...He did call it last year..Ill give him that but this year is another year..Good luck Frank your gonna need it...LOL

[Frank2]

LOL - as Andy Taylor would say - I'll be a flat dog - that's a good 'un!!!

[MWatkins]

This quiet period isn't just an Atlantic thing, either.

There isn't an active tropical cyclone anyplace in the northern hemisphere right now...and according to the Euro...there won't be one of any significance anyplace in the northern hemisphere for the next 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

It is really quite an amazing occurance for what will be the last week in August.

What we are seeing now...is strange. No identifiable MJO signal using 5 day running means...anywhere...and no tropical activity.

Something will have to give.

MW

[crownweather]

My curiousity got me this morning and I went back to look at Colorado State's August hurricane season forecast and for August, they forecasted 3 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes and 1 Intense Hurricane.

Okay, let's look at the month of August so far, we have had Dean and Erin which gives us 2 NS, 1 Hurricane (Dean) and 1 Intense Hurricane (Dean). So, the big question is will we have 1 more storm during the next 7 days?? My guess is maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Now, CSU forecast for September is for 5 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes and 2 Intense Hurricanes. For October & November: 5 Named Storms, 2 Hurricanes and 1 Intense Hurricane.

With the pending La Nina, I agree with Mike and that the switch will be turned on very soon and all of the season cancel folks will be eating their words.

[KWT]

I wonder whether the super negative GLAAM has anything to do with the lack of activity right now globally?

Frank---yeah seasons have ended in Setpember but they were nearly always El Nino years, such as 2006 and to a certain extent 2004, this year is a La Nina year which suggests the season will be extended longer then normal, a few storms in November is quite possible in La nina.

As has been said before there IS plenty of time for another 10 storms, we could go until the 6th of September and be tied with 01 for storms and hurricanes and that ended up having 15 NS and 9 hurricanes.

However things are going to have to get in gear sooner rather then later if those high numbers of 15-17 are going to be reached, though as we saw with Dean and Erin you can easily see a couple of systems develop in a matter of a few days if you get decent systems...

By the way just for your info, we are running AHEAD of the average ACE seen between 95-06 upto the 24th of August, 5th out of 12 right now, though its about this time that several other seasons really kick into gear.

I'd say 13/7/3 right now, ACE of about 120.

[Stormcenter]

This quiet period isn't just an Atlantic thing, either.

There isn't an active tropical cyclone anyplace in the northern hemisphere right now...and according to the Euro...there won't be one of any significance anyplace in the northern hemisphere for the next 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

It is really quite an amazing occurance for what will be the last week in August.

What we are seeing now...is strange. No identifiable MJO signal using 5 day running means...anywhere...and no tropical activity.

Something will have to give.

MW

Hopefully something doesn't give.

Anyway lets assume for arguement sake that 2007 turns
out to be "average" or "below average" season then what will be
the excuse from all of the experts who predicted
a very active season? As I've before I expected 2-3 big storms
in 2007 and overall an average season. That means we should
have one or two more significant storms before the season ends.
The big question of course is where do end up making landfall if in fact
they do develop. IMO

[Frank2]

Well, this is the old poem that native Floridians taught me many moons ago:

June, too soon,
July, stand by,
August, get set,
September, remember,
October, all over!

...'cept for Wilma...

[KWT]

I may be wrong but I recall that a very negative GLAAM tends to allow for really strong subtropical highs to be present thanks to a general zonal flow of the jet (well its something like that anyway!) It would make sense that if the highs are so strong because of that they are preventing tropical development and it may explain why globally its not that busy at the moment. That seems the most logical reason to use IF the season is slow.

I still think all these posts about it being slow best be put back till September 20th. If you get past then and its still fairly inactive then you can say that this season probably won't get above average but we have a long long way till the 20th!

[Stormcenter]

This is a good sign when the Fall cold fronts starting coming down earlier then usual. Yes I know we can sometimes have tropical development on the tail end of fronts stalling in the GOM but nothing like a Dean type storm. Those are the ones we all need to avoid during hurricane season.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...STACKED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE RIDGE
WEAKENING AS SHORTWAVES ALOFT BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE
SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST WELL INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. CHANCE POPS EACH DAY ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOOK TO BE IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC. THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT AN EARLY FALL LIKE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO SAY THIS FOR CERTAIN...BUT HOPEFULLY THERE IS SOME
VALIDITY TO THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING.

[KWT]

Interesting Stormcenter but there was an early fall like front that came down in August 2004 and swept up Charley and that didn't prevent quite a few hurricanes afterwards threatening the USA did it?

[gatorcane]

I'll take a big guess and say the final tally will be...

8/2/1

I really don't think we'll see too much more action - the current surpressed environment in the Atlantic is very impressive for this time of year...

Also, over the past 2 or 3 weeks, the cold fronts seem to be making an early southward migration, so, we might see the season come to an early end...

Just a guess, folks...

Frank I think you are way too premature on these opinions. It's only Aug. 24th. The climatological peak is not for another 3 weeks! Then we see a secondary peak in early October....I can tell you like to bring up that fall is near but we are nearing the most dreaded time in the hurricane season. June through mid August typically are very slow anyway. That period doesn't even count towards hurricane season in my opinion. We are in day 9 of hurricane season in my book. Things can change very rapidly in the tropics. Next week may look entirely different from this week.

It's going to ramp up and Sept./Oct should be busy months EVEN IF COLD FRONTS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE CONUS. Actually that puts Florida at even more risk as Western Caribbean and GOM storms have a path up th EC of the US.

It's far from over my friend -- you will see. Two back to back slow years is not likely.

It's the calm before the storm........

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, this is the old poem that native Floridians taught me many moons ago:

June, too soon,
July, stand by,
August, get set,
September, remember,
October, all over!

...'cept for Wilma...

I think Opal was an October storm as well.


The "June-Too Soon" works semi-well for the Gulf Coast, although the Tropical Rainstorm Allison formed the first week, and a Category 4 hit on the TX/LA state line the last week of June in 1957.

October-all over- that is true only for Texas. Lili hit Louisiana in October, IIRC.

[BayouVenteux]

October-all over- that is true only for Texas. Lili hit Louisiana in October, IIRC.

Mostly true for Texas, with the exception of (I think it was named) Jerry several years ago. Louisiana has had a few...Hilda in '64, Juan in '85 ( a mid-to-late month storm IIRC), and Lili in '02 to name a few of the more memorable ones. But typically in October, we're out of the woods in most seasons too.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting Stormcenter but there was an early fall like front that came down in August 2004 and swept up Charley and that didn't prevent quite a few hurricanes afterwards threatening the USA did it?

Your point is well taken but still once these fronts start rolling in they just get stronger and stronger as the weeks go by. Now that is not t say they will cool off signifcantly the GOM or anything. All I'm saying the northerly flow and strong highs behind fronts will steer systems away from most of the U.S. except some of Florida. It all depends on how strong and far south the fronts go. IMO

[flwxwatcher]

I agree with MW something has to give.. and I think it will be the Atlantic in September and October. Like was pointed out in a earlier post the SAL is not nearly as strong, unlike last year and unlike last year which was descending into El nino , this year We are heading toward La Nina. Many years things don't get really going until September much like 2001 as just one example. Oh well,.. time will tell.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Sanibel]

The whole basin has flashed off negative. It's weird how it does that.

[KWT]

I'm not so sure about that tohugh stormcenter, sure diving upper lows will become stronger over the next 30 days but right now the subtropical belt is awesome in terms of its strength, look at Dean and how it kept on a just north of west track from Africa right the way into the Pacific and while cold fronts may help to weaken any high but if the upper lows don't palce themsleves correctly you could just as easily get into a situation where every system is caught in a weakness, think back to 2006 and how every system took a similar track, if such a set-up emerged again it could eaisly be shifted westwards.

The USA did miss a possibly big bullet with Dean, the features your mentioning would have probably allowed a US Dean hit had it occured in late September IMO, but its still a little early for those really strong upper lows to start digging down and with such a strong high pressure belt still present most systems are going to keep on a westerly type track for a little while yet.

ps, as for October, I swear I remember Derek saying October was the moth when Florida was at most risk, esp W.Florida??