Waiting for the On-Switch

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crownweather
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#61 Postby crownweather » Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:52 am

Interesting point about west Florida being at risk in October. I remember back in 1995 with Allison hitting the Florida Panhandle in June. Then, in October, Opal hit the same area....which makes me wonder if the Tampa area could be at risk in October, since Barry hit this area in June and also 1995 being a analog to this season.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#62 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:52 am

Frank2 wrote:Well, this is the old poem that native Floridians taught me many moons ago:

June, too soon,
July, stand by,
August, get set,
September, remember,
October, all over!


...'cept for Wilma...



I think this poem originated in the eastern Caribbean, but I could be wrong. In any case, it seems a lot more accurate for that region than for Florida, particularly the peninsula.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#63 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:06 am

Hey, bit of a twist and amplification going on at 10N/46W. Maybe this is a sign (if it can avoid the front that's part of a low to its north). Worth watching 8-)
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#64 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:11 am

Well, from what I was told, the poem had to do with August or September hurricanes that posed the greatest risk to Florida - those, such as Andrew, that are true Cape Verde systems, and, never touch land until reaching the Florida peninsula.

The thinking of "October, all over!" was referring to October systems that originate in the western Caribbean, and, while a threat to the Gulf coast of Florida, were usually assumed to be less of a threat, since they often crossed other bodies of land (Jamacia, Cuba, Yucatan) before reaching Florida...

Of course, when that poem first appeared, the Florida Gulf coast was entirely rural - with the exception of sleepy Key West, Fort Myers and Tampa...

Frank
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#65 Postby MWatkins » Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:13 am

KWT wrote:I wonder whether the super negative GLAAM has anything to do with the lack of activity right now globally?

Frank---yeah seasons have ended in Setpember but they were nearly always El Nino years, such as 2006 and to a certain extent 2004, this year is a La Nina year which suggests the season will be extended longer then normal, a few storms in November is quite possible in La nina.

As has been said before there IS plenty of time for another 10 storms, we could go until the 6th of September and be tied with 01 for storms and hurricanes and that ended up having 15 NS and 9 hurricanes.

However things are going to have to get in gear sooner rather then later if those high numbers of 15-17 are going to be reached, though as we saw with Dean and Erin you can easily see a couple of systems develop in a matter of a few days if you get decent systems...

By the way just for your info, we are running AHEAD of the average ACE seen between 95-06 upto the 24th of August, 5th out of 12 right now, though its about this time that several other seasons really kick into gear.

I'd say 13/7/3 right now, ACE of about 120.


Interesting point on the GLAAM.

Looking at the yearly averages since 1958...seems like positive values are correlated to Nina episodes, and negative values are coorelated to Nino episodes.

I just attacked this very problem using the following datasets:

GLAAM: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/glaam.data.scaled
ENSO (Nino 3.4 and SOI index): http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/cathy.sm ... /table.txt

Using K-Means clustering (my favorite form of statistical analysis) I took values of the GLAMM index for the 3 months leading into the bulk of the season (JUN, JUL, AUG) and created three clusters of years.

Cluster 1 (Neutral Years) 24 cases: GLAMM Averages: JUN -0.02, JUL 0.00 AUG +0.01
Cluster 2 (Positive GLAMM) 6 cases: GLAMM Averages: JUN +1.07, JUL +1.3 AUG +1.14
Cluster 3 (Negative GLAMM) 18 cases: GLAMM Averages: JUN -0.93, JUL -1.1, AUG -1.16

The strong GLAAM years really stand out as warm ENSO events:


Cluster 2: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1990, 1993, 1997

Nina years don't show up as well, but there are plenty of intereting analogs/cluster members for cluster 3, which is most like the current state of the GLAAM (-1.08 JUN, -1.50 JUL and AUG looks to be near -2.00):

Cluster 3: 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1970, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1984, 1988, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2005

Especially since the warm phase of the AMO has resumed, strong negative GLAAM years in JUN/JUL/AUG tend to be very active Atlantic seasons...

MW
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#66 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:25 am

We should hope we do see a lot of storms in all the basins. Hopefully populted areas don't get hit, but we do need them. If mother nature doesn't find some way to cool her waters, those warmer waters will translate to warmer currents making there way to our poles and start melting more ice faster. :froze:
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#67 Postby otowntiger » Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:37 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.


I'm afraid you're not making a whole lotta sense here. You are saying that the door is closing because you don't see anything on the horizon for the next week when we haven't even gotten to the peak of the season yet? This following a post by one of our better professional mets that says the opposite.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#68 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:42 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.


I'm afraid you're not making a whole lotta sense here. You are saying that the door is closing because you don't see anything on the horizon for the next week when we haven't even gotten to the peak of the season yet? This following a post by one of our better professional mets that says the opposite.


I've learned to just ignore some posts. Some are just in denial and ready to quit before it's ever begun.
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#69 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:42 pm

By the way while we are a little deeper into the season in terms of numbers, we are actually only 18% of the way thorugh in terms of ACE, the average between 95-06 was just under 26 and the eventual ACE average at the end of the season between 95-06 is now roughly 136 I believe and there is a big rise in the average from now till the 20th, so thats when we usually see the most activity, I've not done the figures but I'd guess 50-60% of the season happens in the next 20-25 days in terms of ACE anyway.

To rule this season off now would be like ruling winter as a slow one on the 20th of December!
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#70 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 24, 2007 2:12 pm

skysummit wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.


I'm afraid you're not making a whole lotta sense here. You are saying that the door is closing because you don't see anything on the horizon for the next week when we haven't even gotten to the peak of the season yet? This following a post by one of our better professional mets that says the opposite.


I've learned to just ignore some posts. Some are just in denial and ready to quit before it's ever begun.


There is no denial in my post. I still state that we may have 1 or 2 more significant storms this season. What I'm stating is that the time in which this should happen is limited and I just don't think as some do on this board that all of the sudden storms will begin developing left and right. We had the same type of posts last season during this time when it was obvious things were going to be normal. I think the denial is on the other end of the spectrum here. Many still think we will have a repeat of 2004 or some other late starting season. That may still be very possible but looking at today's global satellite images it's kind of hard pill to swallow right now. It is August 24th and things "should" be clicking at least somewhere in the tropics and they're not. Hey this is just my opinion.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#71 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2007 2:28 pm

Stormcenter, what sort of numbers are you expecting for the seasona overall, something between 8-10 named storms I'm guessing??
I tend to think its still a little early in the day yet, as my ACE post shows in terms of strong systems we are now only starting to just reach the peak.
Things are inactive right now, no saying it isn't but these things can change pretty quickly as plenty of other seasons have shown in the past. As I said before we could go upto September the 7th without a named storm and still be on par with 2001 which had 15 storms.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#72 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:01 pm

KWT wrote:Stormcenter, what sort of numbers are you expecting for the seasona overall, something between 8-10 named storms I'm guessing??
I tend to think its still a little early in the day yet, as my ACE post shows in terms of strong systems we are now only starting to just reach the peak.
Things are inactive right now, no saying it isn't but these things can change pretty quickly as plenty of other seasons have shown in the past. As I said before we could go upto September the 7th without a named storm and still be on par with 2001 which had 15 storms.


I'm expecting 10-13 with most of them not having a significant affect on the U.S.
I do believe, as I've said before we will have 1 or 2 major canes yet this season.
Now whether or not they threaten the U.S. only the man up there knows. IMO
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#73 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:04 pm

StormCenter, I just think it has to do with the time your post is coming out. If the conditions are the same 1 month or even 3 weeks from now, I will be all aboard on what you are saying, but so many times we think it's dying off and then BAMM it just explodes(and I'm not talking about 2005 either). I remember many years in the early 2000's like that....I'm not saying that will happen, but we just don't know at this point. Sure it's not 2005, but it's not 2006 either, so we need to treat this season like it's brand new, but who knows, you may end up being right in the end
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#74 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:15 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.


I'm afraid you're not making a whole lotta sense here. You are saying that the door is closing because you don't see anything on the horizon for the next week when we haven't even gotten to the peak of the season yet? This following a post by one of our better professional mets that says the opposite.


In the tropics the door closes quicker than some of you think for "most" of the U.S. except for maybe Florida in an average in season which what I believe 2007 will turn out to be. We all know this will not be another 2005 or even 2004 season when we had storms forming left and right all the way to the end and beyond. Yes anything is possible but not likely. The meat and potatoes of the season in my opinion is between August 15th and Sept. 15. That would mean we have 3 critical weeks coming up, again in my opinion. That is really not a long time when you consider it takes sometimes up to 10 days for some systems to travel accross the Atlantic. That's is not to say we won't have a big one form after September 15th or in October. The good thing is by then it would have many more obstacles (fronts,troughs,cooler waters) to deal with later next month then it would now if were to threaten the U.S. Again I did not say we would not have anymore tropical activity all I said is that it will not be what many and I mean many predicted before the season started. Remember it only takes one big storm (Dean) to destroy a lot of lives.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#75 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:31 pm

There is only a 15% chance we will have 6 or fewer additional named storms this season. There is an 85% chance we will have at least 7 more named storms.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#76 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:33 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:There is only a 15% chance we will have 6 or fewer additional named storms this season. There is an 85% chance we will have at least 7 more named storms.


Reason?


Heard any of the Miami rumors that Fidel has shuffled off this mortal coil?
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#77 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:41 pm

Well looking at it currently I'd say the higher end of your estimate may not be all that far away from the truth stormcenter, still time to get 9-11 systems however.

As for the peak times, well we are entering it now IMO over the next 30 days, in the last 11 seasons quite a few of the active ones got going between the 20-25th of August. 30 days is plenty of time for quite a few waves to head into the Atlantic, any one of them could develop into something.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#78 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:43 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Did you hear that noise?
It's the sound of the squeaky 2007 season door
starting to close.
It's not by far closed yet but believe me
before you know it the real cold fronts will start
coming down. Do you guys really believe we will
have 9 to 10 more named storms? Right now
I just don't see anything for at least the next
week unless it's homegrown. Wouldn't it be something
if we had another average or even below average season?
Like I said the door is not by far closed yet so based on my early season
prediction there should be one more "big (cat.3-4)" storm form in the next month.
The remainder of the storms will be under cat.3. Hey just my 2 cents.


I'm afraid you're not making a whole lotta sense here. You are saying that the door is closing because you don't see anything on the horizon for the next week when we haven't even gotten to the peak of the season yet? This following a post by one of our better professional mets that says the opposite.


In the tropics the door closes quicker than some of you think for "most" of the U.S. except for maybe Florida in an average in season which what I believe 2007 will turn out to be. We all know this will not be another 2005 or even 2004 season when we had storms forming left and right all the way to the end and beyond. Yes anything is possible but not likely. The meat and potatoes of the season in my opinion is between August 15th and Sept. 15. That would mean we have 3 critical weeks coming up, again in my opinion. That is really not a long time when you consider it takes sometimes up to 10 days for some systems to travel accross the Atlantic. That's is not to say we won't have a big one form after September 15th or in October. The good thing is by then it would have many more obstacles (fronts,troughs,cooler waters) to deal with later next month then it would now if were to threaten the U.S. Again I did not say we would not have anymore tropical activity all I said is that it will not be what many and I mean many predicted before the season started. Remember it only takes one big storm (Dean) to destroy a lot of lives.



I never EVER listen to the numbers put out by the NHC..Those numbers are just for entertainment as far as I'm concerned....I don't think anyone really expected the season to be that busy, except maybe the NHC. I expect it to be busier than 2006 though, which was a fluke as far as I'm concerned...Now THAT was a dead season. I look at 2006 just like 2005 at the opposite end of the spectrum. Perhaps fronts will start coming through by the end of September, but we've always got those Carib storms that get going late in the season, and this season should be no different....
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#79 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 24, 2007 5:26 pm

well, IMO, the "meat" of the Season is more like August 15th - September 30th for the USA. That means we still have over a month left of watching closely...even in Texas. Rita hit on September 24th...a month from now...and Wilma hit FL in late October. We are not quite out of the woods yet.

BTW: For a more in-depth look at the Houston hurricane season, see my post on the next page.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Waiting for the On-Switch

#80 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 24, 2007 6:37 pm

What's funny is that In June
people were asking, "Where's all the storms?" the answer was, "it's too early"
In July people were asking "where's all the storms?" the answer was "It's still too early"
and now in August people are saying "where's alll the storms?" and SOME folks are saying, "it' getting too late, season is almost over" LOL (I'm not talking about you StormCenter, just some of the posts I've been reading from others)........I'm 41 years old and I can remember many many storms forming in September and October. I guess that's what makes this so comical...I've been bitten by the skeptical bug many times and posted many "season's over" threads only to eat crow later. I've finally learned my lesson and no longer do it...
Again, this isn't pertaining specifically to StormCenter's post, just other "season cancel" posts I'm seeing....
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