Another impressive wave about to exit Africa...

[BigA]

Although it is nearly impossible to analyze the potential of a wave before it gets its feet wet, (Dean being somewhat of an exception, with a large amount of model support on it before it formed) the wave about to exit Africa looks reasonably strong, and will be moving into an area of a decent amount of moisture. It is also at a moderately high latitude, (about 15 north)which, if I remember, can be good both for development and fish spinning.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[gatorcane]

Lets take a look at the factors impacting development. I give it about a 10% chance of development.

1) SAL is actually not too strong out to about 30W. GOOD for development



2) Upper level winds are actually fairly light out to about 30W



3) SST are only marginally favorable but do not get favorable until 30W....by the way notice how warm the GOM and Caribbean are...we don't want something getting into there

[Sanibel]

Don't see any vort with it.

[Anthonyl]

Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:56 pm
Posts: 49
Location: Winter Springs, Florida Although it is nearly impossible to analyze the potential of a wave before it gets its feet wet, (Dean being somewhat of an exception, with a large amount of model support on it before it formed) the wave about to exit Africa looks reasonably strong, and will be moving into an area of a decent amount of moisture. It is also at a moderately high latitude, (about 15 north)which, if I remember, can be good both for development and fish spinning.


Actually the entire wave axis is further south than 15n, what you maybe seeing is some sort of out flow boundary.

[SouthFloridawx]

Don't see any vort with it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7vor.html

[Sanibel]

Best I can find is a semi-dry wave between 0-10W with some dry vorticity. Should exit in a day or two.

[Zardoz]

Man, these things sure look impressive just before they hit the water. It's a really good thing that so few of them develop. If they all did, the Caribbean, Florida, and the Gulf coast would be uninhabitable.

[Aric Dunn]

the eastern atlantic is cut off for a couple more days !!! Dry air to its north and from the south will keeps the eastern atlantic a hard place to see anything get going!

[Sanibel]

Just like it did right before Dean.

[windstorm99]

wow the SAL appears to be almost non-existant in the easern atlantic.

[deltadog03]

I think the eastern atlantic will be cut off for the rest of the year...JMO....I think there might be a renegade, but overall...

[Cyclone1]

I think the eastern atlantic will be cut off for the rest of the year...JMO....I think there might be a renegade, but overall...

Why do you say that? SAL is gone, sheer is low, waves rolling off constantly, temps are marginal, but still up there.

[deltadog03]

I say that because the water types are starting to cool a bit and high pressure is really pushing the SAL over the eastern atlantic. Sure it comes and goes, but I feel as though nothing is really going to get going. Pressures are high and should stay that way. Big thing is that and the water temps!

[Bane]

actually, the cape verde season just started. we have until at least mid september to watch that area.

[CourierPR]

Keep in mind that a light SAL outbreak does not inhibit TC formation.