BOC convection

[Stormcenter]

A nice little blob of convection has developed deep down in the BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

Yes it has a little rotation with it also but will probably be inland before it develops.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
Also I noticed that some models are showing moisture from the SW Caribbean entering the BOC, one model develops a low inthat area.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[tailgater]

They are showing a 1009mb low along the trough now and it seems to be drifting more northward than I thought it would, possilbly being pull north more by the ULL to north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Portastorm]

Convection increasing this morning but that ULL in the central Gulf doesn't appear to be moving anywhere very fast.

Here is what the TPC discussion said this morning about this area:

CONVECTION REMAINS FIRED UP OVER SRN MEXICO AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER THOUGH NO DOUBT THERE IS INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE AND SMALLER SCALE FLOWS.

[tailgater]

If and that's a big if this stays off shore for the next 48hrs. I think we will have a TD or Felix to watch. The visible loop this morning is showing a good deal rotation down there and shear is fairly light, the contour of the BOC will help tighten circ. and it has a lot of moisture.

[lrak]

the latest visible shows a new burst starting to move WSW north of the plotted 1009 low. Who knows, Corpus Christi has had a very unusual summer this year. Seems like anything is possible with all the constant wet air down here this season. The heat and high over the SE US just hasn't payed us a visit yet. Hopefully it won't.

[Sanibel]

Spotted this one and came in to post on it.

Too soon after Dean in the same spot. However, has the look. It's definitely trying to curl up. If it tracks north it will move into untapped GOM. Most likely another short-lived west-tracker into Mexico.

[skysummit]

Steering currents remain relatively weak down there. If anything, it may stay stationary long enough to spin up, then a slow north to northwest drift.

[hriverajr]

I don't know if it will amount to much... but there is some cyclonic turning down there. If it flares up tonight we may have something interesting. Of course direction of motion is a whole different matter.


Hector

[Stormcenter]

They area does continue to look interesting this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sort of low pressure in BOC per buoy

1011 mb isn't that low, but it is one mb lower than Brownsville.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe two little low level spins in BOC

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFS and Canadian both move this wave into Mexico in less than 2 days, although Canadian develops another system in the Caribbean and is just offshore Tampico with a hurricane Friday morning, for what its worth.

[Ptarmigan]

If it persists by Sunday, should keep an eye on it.

[hriverajr]

Take the canadian with a grain of salt


Hector

[RL3AO]

Take the canadian with a grain of salt


Hector

I didn't hear much media coverage on that major cane that hit Florida a few days ago.


Anyway, the convection has gotten a little further away from land.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Take the canadian with a grain of salt


Hector

Hey, it gives the new WRF-NAM a run for its money as the most exciting model to watch for tropical development.

[hriverajr]

Yeah the area is just kinda hanging out right now......

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Possible low pressure at the 5-8 thousand feet or so level near 26.8 north/94.5 west. You can see mid-low level clouds moving south on west side and east on the north...In you can kind of see developing west and north winds which are kind of elongated. But its moving slowly northwestward. Interesting.

[Brent]

The GFS and Canadian both move this wave into Mexico in less than 2 days, although Canadian develops another system in the Caribbean and is just offshore Tampico with a hurricane Friday morning, for what its worth.

Sounds very familiar to an actual storm last week.