Models : Possible 3 or 4 Day C.Verdes Developement

[Meso]

There is a thread about a wave coming off Africa but that was yesterday and this is in about 3 days so I'm pretty sure it's another wave that the models are latching onto(If not can a mod merge with the other thread),and it's a bit soon to be in the long range models thread.Models showing almost the same agreements as early Dean except without the GFS deepening it lots.I guess it's safe to say there will be a good looking wave move off Africa,question is,can it do what the models are thinking.


144 Hours CMC (Although it moves off and starts deepening the low in about 72 hours)


Closes a low and then loses it as the Nogaps often does (Didn't even pick up on Dean)


Ukmet (also rather conservative model) showing a hint at something


GFS shows a broad area of low pressure moving off the African coast and then develops a few closed lows from it


The EURO also showing something like a depression I guess.. A low with associated winds

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT AUG 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE SITS ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER SAINT
CROIX TO SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE LOW AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH...PLACING THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. IT GRADUALLY FILLS THE AREA BY FRIDAY. A LOW APPROACHES
OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND SITS OVER PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL UNITED
STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN INVERTED TROUGH
RESIDES ALONG 57 WEST WITH A LOW AT 21 NORTH 57 WEST. A STRONG LOW
IS LOCATED AT 42 NORTH 44 WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST
DRIFTS NORTH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BY MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE FORMS A
RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM A HIGH JUST SOUTH OF ALABAMA EAST TO 48
WEST. THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE BECOMES EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE MONDAY AFTER
NEXT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BANDS OF MOISTURE
MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY AND THEN WINDS AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER WAVE IS DUE THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR DROPPED INTO THE AREA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE
AND RAIN CLEARED FROM THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
CONTINUED OVER THE WATER...HOWEVER...AND SOMETIMES WASHED OVER THE
UPSTREAM ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE...INITIALIZED AND SUBSEQUENTLY
FORECAST...BY THE GFS IS DETECTED IN THE INFRA RED SATELLITE
PICTURE AS A SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO...OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE
MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL FAVOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINS IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. ON MONDAY MORNING A DRY SLOT WILL PASS
OVER EARLY AND ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE WEST. AN APPROACHING WAVE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACTIVE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME
SOMEWHAT DRIER ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF HUMIDITY AT LOWER LEVELS
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS THEN HOPE FOR A
DRIER WEEKEND.

AT 06Z A TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED AT 26 WEST. THE GFS SHOWS IT
MOVING AT AROUND 14 KNOTS AND BRINGS IT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT WAVE WILL NOT PASS
UNTIL MONDAY. A STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWS THIS AND ON 3 SEPTEMBER IS
DEPICTED AT 30 WEST. A STRONG WIND SURGE FLOWS OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT BEHIND IT. THIS IS THE EARLIEST THAT THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD FORM...FOR THE TIME BEING.

The San Juan NWS discussion about what is in the cards for next week in terms of the models.

[CourierPR]

Luis, San Juan Forecasters provide the most complete info in their synopses. Excellent post.

[fci]

Oh boy!
The CMC shows a storm.
I'm scared since we are still recovering from the storm the CMC had here in South Florida a couple of days ago!

[windstorm99]

Oh boy!
The CMC shows a storm.
I'm scared since we are still recovering from the storm the CMC had here in South Florida a couple of days ago!

[boca]

Hey fci did you get your power back yet from the CMC storm that hit us last Tuesday? I got mine back 2 days ago.

[Cyclone1]

Hey fci did you get your power back yet from the CMC storm that hit us last Tuesday? I got mine back 2 days ago.

Well, he obviously has power back because he just posted.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be flattened, dry divide over Africa between monsoon belt and dry Saharan airmass. Waves have a partial look to them in response. Not sure if any of them have the depth to form. Only way to tell is see when it happens.

[GeneratorPower]

Oh boy!
The CMC shows a storm.
I'm scared since we are still recovering from the storm the CMC had here in South Florida a couple of days ago!

South Florida does NOT need this right now! haha

[Blown Away]

3-4 days from CV development, that means any threat to the Conus would be after September 10. Troughs should be kicking in about that time.

[skysummit]

3-4 days from CV development, that means any threat to the Conus would be after September 10. Troughs should be kicking in about that time.

Not necessarily a good thing.

[cycloneye]

66 hours

12z GFS at 66 hours shows nothing spectacular as it indicates two weak lows.Does not compare with the runs that GFS had when what was Dean in the first stages.But neverless shows some lows that will be interesting to follow in next runs of this model and other global models.

[cycloneye]

96 hours

A new low emerges Western Africa.

[cycloneye]

144 hours

Nothing of significance at this run in 144 hours.

[Meso]

conservative ukmet 12z

[cycloneye]

Meso,anything from the 12z EURO?

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO has a system in the longer range moving NW East of 60 W

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7082512!!/

[Meso]

[cycloneye]

647

WTNT80 EGRR 260456



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.08.2007



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 17.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2007 12.5N 17.1W WEAK

00UTC 29.08.2007 12.9N 18.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2007 15.7N 19.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2007 16.4N 21.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2007 18.2N 23.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2007 19.4N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2007 19.7N 29.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2007 20.1N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

At least UKMET shows something even if it is very weak.

[Meso]