Model Progged Development Between The Carolinas and Bermuda

[crownweather]

The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET and Canadian models are all forecasting development somewhere off of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast US Coast between the Carolinas and Bermuda during the middle and later part of this week. The GFS model forecasts a system to develop on Tuesday from the tail end of a frontal system that will be moving through eastern and southern New England today. This development is forecast to occur, according to the GFS, about 200 miles east of the Carolina coastline. The GFS model then forecasts this system to slowly move to the south, so that by Friday it is located about 350 miles east of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Next weekend, the GFS model forecasts this progged system to be swept quickly out to sea by a frontal system. The NOGAPS model shows hints of development, but nothing concrete and the NOGAPS model's position is further out than the GFS model, about 200 miles northwest of Bermuda. The UKMET model is the most concerning, it forecasts development on Wednesday morning about 75 miles east of Wilmington, North Carolina. The UKMET model then forecasts this system to remain just off of the Carolina coastline through the end of this model's forecast run, which is Friday evening. Finally, the Canadian model forecasts development halfway between North Carolina and Bermuda and forecasts this system to meander around out in that area through Friday. It should be noted that the NAM model also forecasts development, except it is a tad earlier than the UKMET and GFS models.

GFS Model: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07082600/84.html
UKMET Model: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07082600/102.html
Canadian Model: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07082600/83.html
NAM Model: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07082600/10.html