Tropical Wave with Cyclonic Turning at 10N 53W

[xironman]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH LOW LEVEL
TURNING CLEARLY APPARENT ON VIS IMAGES...THOUGH STILL WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONFINED
TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 8N-11N WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SIDE NOTE...IT'S DIFFICULT TO
DECIPHER IF THIS IS A TROPICAL WAVE (ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA) OR
A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

If it can break free of the ITCZ and get north of SA, the shear should lessen in the islands.

[Emmett_Brown]

Check out this IR loop... While the convection has not been very impressive, it has persisted rather well right near the center of the low level swirl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The pluses that i see are:
-Convection persisting
-Easterly Shear is occuring, but not enough to kill the system at this time
-Speed of movement is about right, W at 10-15 mph.

The negetives I see are:
-Stable air. Not extremely dry, but dry and stable enough to prevent rapid organization
-A bit far south, might hit South America
-Easterly shear over the system, SW shear is present near the Windward islands.
-Circulation is small and weak... not a lot of convergence to keep the low growing. If the convection dies off for more than a few hours, it could vanish.

Trends i see:
-Shear in the Windwards lessens by 48 hours:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif
-Moisture increases as you get closer to the Carribean
-Although the system is small, it has been on a gradual up swing. It has maintained a small ball on convection, and is slightly bigger and more organized than this time yesterday. If it has another day of improving organization and size, it could spin up more quickly in a day or 2.

[CourierPR]

Dean was small in size initially, so we know how a system can expand over time.

[Sanibel]

Too Weak

[cheezyWXguy]

Too Weak

wow...great post

[HUC]

Persistent swirl,with some convection this pm...seems this little thing is alive!!!!

[Epsilon_Fan]

Is the swirl to the NE of the Antilles (26N) anything special or is it an ULL? It seems to be cruising in the direction of the Caribbean.

[canegrl04]

Too Weak

wow...great post

Sanibel knows alot about tropical formation.That was alittle uncalled for

[cheezyWXguy]

Too Weak

wow...great post

Sanibel knows alot about tropical formation.That was alittle uncalled for

It probably wont form...but its not because its too weak...everything that forms is at one point that weak...it doesnt just pop up out of nowhere. If it had a more favorable environment with less dry and stable air, then it would have a better chance. I still say watch this once it gets into the Wcarib, if it makes it that far

[Epsilon_Fan]

The little swirly is still there today and seems to be gaining latitude trying to miss Trindad...

[Comanche]

FWIW, JB said "And yes, the system in the southern Caribbean does have my eye".

[cheezyWXguy]

FWIW, JB said "And yes, the system in the southern Caribbean does have my eye".

The southern caribbean storm and this one are completely different...although wouldnt it be something if the merged? The LLC at 55W goes underneath the convection/MLC in the CCarib...that could make for another storm

[FlSteel]

Well our little swirl is still there at 55W and 12N but is imbedded in a really dry and stable enviroment. Until it escapes that, it probably has little chance at development. I just wonder how long it will stick around.

[Bane]

Too Weak

wow...great post

it was better than yours, unfortunately.

[xironman]

It actually has a bit of convection this morning, so it looks like the swirl will last a while longer. It has also gained enough latitude to miss SA. Now it just needs some moisture, which does not seem to be in its future, it is bringing the desert with it.