Models : Possible 3 or 4 Day C.Verdes Developement

[cycloneye]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2007





NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.8N 20.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 29.08.2007 13.8N 20.4W WEAK

12UTC 29.08.2007 13.4N 20.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2007 13.4N 24.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2007 14.6N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2007 15.5N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2007 17.8N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2007 18.0N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2007 19.0N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

12z UKMET shows a weak system going to fishland.

[x-y-no]

GFS carries a weak wave north of the leewards and into the Bahamas days 5-7. I think this is the wave TPC analyzes at 16N33W 3N29W today.

Could have some potential. If it's stronger than indicated, then it probably recurves out to sea given the trough and mid-level shortwave likely to be offshore at that time. (Unless it's substantially further south, that is.)

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.7N 24.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.08.2007 13.7N 24.0W WEAK

12UTC 30.08.2007 15.0N 25.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2007 15.6N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2007 17.2N 29.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2007 17.6N 32.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2007 18.7N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2007 19.3N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

00z UKMET contiues to show a weak system moving to fishland starting in three days.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.4N 30.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.08.2007 10.4N 30.2W WEAK

12UTC 30.08.2007 11.6N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2007 13.0N 31.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2007 13.9N 31.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2007 15.3N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2007 15.6N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.5N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 17.1N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2007 16.9N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

00z UKMET.Another run showing this now developing it after 48 hours.It is not the wave we are watching now,but another wave behind.