Convection w/ inflow-West-Central Caribbean Sea

[drezee]

This looks interesting. The morning visibles show convergence and convection consolidating:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

I wish we had buoy 42058!

[Emmett_Brown]

Yup, i have been watching this too this morning. At first i thought it was just harmless convection left over from yesterday moving N from Venezuela, but it seems to be persisting as it moves into the Carribean. It shows up nicely on WV too:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Notice the small upper level trough to its NE, possibly aiding outflow. Looks like it has a chance to me. Appears to be moving general NW.

[xironman]

The models have been hinting this area for a while viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97313.

[drezee]

The models have been hinting this area for a while viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97313.

Yeah, the NAM has been forecasting SW Caribbean development for 3 months straight. The topic was started for development to start in Thursday. This is a completely different entity.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The models have been hinting this area for a while viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97313.

Yeah, the NAM has been forecasting SW Caribbean development for 3 months straight. The topic was started for development to start in Thursday. This is a completely different entity.

The Canadian has been moving something from SW Caribbean into Yucatan then mainland Mexico for two runs. Yes, I know, its the Canadian.

[Meso]

Actually most of the models have been showing this : CMC,NAM,GFS (slight hints in previous runs),Nogaps,MM5... While none of them develop anything big (except cmc as usually) They all show hints of a closed low in the SW Caribbean area,Moving NNW

[Sanibel]

Lyons said a surface Low has been pulled offshore from Colombia.

[BigA]

Lyons said a surface Low has been pulled offshore from Colombia.

Does this mean that this system has a greater or less chance of developing? A surface low is needed for a system to get started, but I did not watch the tropical update, so I do not know if Dr. Lyons said that fact dismissingly. Seems to me that a surface low getting pulled offshore would increase the chances of development.

[CourierPR]

No mention of this area in TWO.

[Recurve]

Looking fairly robust. ITZ and north from 65-75N. TWD mentions only mid-upper features.



Discussion snip>

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED PATCHES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
BASIN...BUT NONE OF THESE SHOW ANY ORGANIZATION. THE MOST
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS COLOMBIA
AND THE S CARIB FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 67W-76W. ELSEWHERE MUCH OF
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER/MOISTURE APPEARS RELATED TO FEATURES ALOFT.
THE MAIN FEATURE IS AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TOWARD HISPANIOLA. STRONG NLY FLOW
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND RIDGING FURTHER W HAS BLOWN OFF LAST
EVENING'S TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CUBA AND HAS SPREAD IT'S DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE CARIB. MOST OF THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS ARE WEAK...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW NEW SMALL
BURSTS NEAR HISPANIOLA WHERE UPPER INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE MORE
PRONOUNCED. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY
QUIET THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS CAN OCCUR
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS INDICATED BY SAN JUAN'S RADAR. THE TRADE
WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY RELAXED...AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS ONLY SHOWED
A SMALL AREA NEAR 20 KT.

[Sanibel]

Looks like curvature, but 2007 has faked us out many times this year in this area.

[Recurve]

Indeed.

Not sounding any alarm, just stating the very obvious -- something to be aware of for Floridians and western carib.

[PTrackerLA]

This area looks quite interesting, there are hints at some circulation but it's very far to the south. I would imagine that anything that formed would scoot off to the west into central America.

[caneman]

Man, where the heck is eveyone? This looks like it is rapidly coming together at 11N and 76W. This should be an invest! A couple of models did pick up on this heading NW towards BOC.

[caneman]

latest quikscat isn't right over it but around 11N and 80W it is recording 25 to 30 kt. winds. Wonder what is is closer to 76?

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF
16N BETWEEN 64W-78W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO N OF 16N BETWEEN
THE SAME AREA AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA..AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE ITCZ. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING
BETWEEN PANAMA AND HAITI...AND ATLC RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SIDE...AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

2 PM Discussion by TPC.

[Frank P]

this system definitely has rotation, appears to be moving to the WNW... very interesting to view on the sat loop right now... center of rotation around 11.5 n and 76.2 w

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[TexWx]

Is that mid or low level rotation?

I can almost see a future problem here..

[x-y-no]

this system definitely has rotation, appears to be moving to the WNW... very interesting to view on the sat loop right now... center of rotation around 11.5 n and 76.2 w

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Yeah, it certainly looks like some low-level circulation there, moving WNW as you say.

Convection isn't as impressive as it was this morning ... we'll see what the diurnal max can do for it tonight.

[Frank P]

Is that mid or low level rotation?

I can almost see a future problem here..

Looks more low level to me than mid but hard for me to tell... but as x-y-no posted I think its lost some of its convection punch.. but lets watch and see what happens later tonight...