Who says hyperactivity has to last 15 to 25 years

[boca]

Is their scientific backup that we will remain in this hyperactive period for 15 to 25 years.It started in 1995 and we had busy seasons especially 2005 which I don't have to comment on and some slow seasons. Maybe where slipping back to the era from 1970 to 1994. I'm posting this because I'm looking for answers since I don't know. Comments welcome.

[Frank2]

I don't think the "15/25" issue was considered as much after the '04 season, as it was after the '05 season - in my opinion, and just totally unscientific (ahem), I think a comment like that is a mistake, since it's been found that even in busy periods, there are also slower times.

The 1960's (by my own recollection) were a good example - my first hurricane encounter was in 1960 (yipes), and, it'd have been easy to think that the rest of the '60s would be the same, but, the 60's turned out to be very much like the '50s - a mix of fairly busy and almost inactive seasons, so, while one year might be very busy, it doesn't mean the next will be - or the entire decade.

In the case of '04 and '05, it was unsual to have two seasons of such magnitude (though both were probably just one long event - interrupted by winter), however, last year's inactivity was credited to El Nino, but, now that this has apparently ended (I had questioned this just before Dean), I'm wondering, if the seasonal predictions are as off as they are now, what will the reason be this time?

I just don't think enough is known to accurately speak of long-term trends - unfortunately, the only ones who seemed to benefit from the "15/25" comment of 2005, were those who intended to make money from this statement...

Frank

[LarryWx]

According to the linked climo data, with four tropical storms to date (I'm ignoring the ST storm for this stat), we're actually slightly ahead of the long-term average (1944-2005) for this date for named storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

The average date for the fourth named storm isn't until 8/29. It would take until 9/5 for us to be behind on named storms with the current four.

With one hurricane to date, we're near the long-term average. The second doesn't occur on average until 8/30.

With one major hurricane to date, we're slightly ahead of the long-term average. The first doesn't occur on average until 9/3.

I feel that many Atlantic tropical hobbyists have been spoiled by the high number of storms for most of the years 1995-2005. Many of them would probably go nuts if we were to revert back to a relatively slow period like 1970-1994. They are quite fortunate to have lived though the very recent active period. Perhaps the best remedy would be for those people to lower their expectations to closer to the long-term averages. That way, a near average season shouldn't be so dissappointing and an above average season would be a very pleasant surprise.

[Coredesat]

I feel that many Atlantic tropical hobbyists have been spoiled by the high number of storms for most of the years 1995-2005.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Not every season must be like 1995-2005, and 10 years do not define "normal". I've said this before, but this is shaping up to be an average season.

[HURAKAN]

It seems people want a seaon with back to back to back .... storms during the season.

[Ptarmigan]

According to the linked climo data, with four tropical storms to date (I'm ignoring the ST storm for this stat), we're actually slightly ahead of the long-term average (1944-2005) for this date for named storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

The average date for the fourth named storm isn't until 8/29. It would take until 9/5 for us to be behind on named storms with the current four.

With one hurricane to date, we're near the long-term average. The second doesn't occur on average until 8/30.

With one major hurricane to date, we're slightly ahead of the long-term average. The first doesn't occur on average until 9/3.

I feel that many Atlantic tropical hobbyists have been spoiled by the high number of storms for most of the years 1995-2005. Many of them would probably go nuts if we were to revert back to a relatively slow period like 1970-1994. They are quite fortunate to have lived though the very recent active period. Perhaps the best remedy would be for those people to lower their expectations to closer to the long-term averages. That way, a near average season shouldn't be so dissappointing and an above average season would be a very pleasant surprise.

True. Even in active cycles of 1995-2007, there are quiet years, like 1997, 2002, and 2006. 1997 being very quiet due to a strong El Nino, while 2002 and 2006 had above average amount of storms forming, but only two major hurricanes formed. Even in slow periods of 1970 to 1994, there were active years, like 1980, 1985, 1988, and 1989. I grew up during the less active period, which dominated my childhood. Weird thing is, I seem to remember more storms and flood events that time, especially from 1989 to 1994 and that kept me on the edge as a kid.

[Jim Hughes]

According to the linked climo data, with four tropical storms to date (I'm ignoring the ST storm for this stat), we're actually slightly ahead of the long-term average (1944-2005) for this date for named storms:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

The average date for the fourth named storm isn't until 8/29. It would take until 9/5 for us to be behind on named storms with the current four.

With one hurricane to date, we're near the long-term average. The second doesn't occur on average until 8/30.

With one major hurricane to date, we're slightly ahead of the long-term average. The first doesn't occur on average until 9/3.

I feel that many Atlantic tropical hobbyists have been spoiled by the high number of storms for most of the years 1995-2005. Many of them would probably go nuts if we were to revert back to a relatively slow period like 1970-1994. They are quite fortunate to have lived though the very recent active period. Perhaps the best remedy would be for those people to lower their expectations to closer to the long-term averages. That way, a near average season shouldn't be so dissappointing and an above average season would be a very pleasant surprise.

Excellent points Larry and well laid out as usual.

[Coredesat]

I should also mention, to those who think a lull in late August is unusual, that there was a lull in terms of storm formation of about three weeks (in early September) during the 1985 season, interestingly enough between Elena (formed August 28) and Fabian (formed September 15).

That season's last storm was Kate, a Category 3 landfalling in Florida in November.

[Frank2]

I feel that many Atlantic tropical hobbyists have been spoiled by the high number of storms for most of the years 1995-2005. Many of them would probably [leave] if we were to revert back to a relatively slow period like 1970-1994. They are quite fortunate to have lived though the very recent active period. Perhaps the best remedy would be for those people to lower their expectations to closer to the long-term averages.

I've also found this hard to understand - perhaps it's because we have a number of very young posters on this site (who no longer post during the week, now that school is back in session), but, it seems they won't be satisfied until there are at least a dozen Cat 5's on the map at the same time.

When Dean formed, one poster seemed so "happy" that he posted a take off on the old "the train is coming" song (fortunately, the train has since developed engine problems) - is that what he really wants - a series of Dean-like hurricanes?

As larrywx said, if the trend did return to slower seasons such as seen during the 1970's and 1980's, most here wouldn't know what to do - however, here in Florida, that period was looked on (especially after Andrew, Charley, Frances, Jean and Wilma), as the golden days of hurricane seasons - I don't think that any sane person would disagree with that, and, would not be "saddened" if it returned...

[tolakram]

I think they need to stop counting storms and start counting seasonal storm energy instead. Max Mayfield presented this idea in his blog. So a season with only 3 storms, all cat5's might equal a season with 10 relatively weak storms.

Counting things is a human trait most likely unassociated with anything scientific.

[Chacor]

Unfortunately it seems that, as has been pointed out, only Cat 5s taking aim at the United States is enough to pacify/satisfy some people.

Looking at ACE, the Atlantic is currently (35.5) well ahead of the 1951-2000 mean ACE (at August 27, 21.4).

Based on numbers, the Atlantic is ahead of schedule as pointed out above. The EPac (four named storms) and WPac (five and a half named storms) are both behind average right now, just as a comparison.

[Frank2]

Thanks for that information, Chacor - interesting the the WPAC and EPAC are both behind the averages...

No significant tropical weather in your part of the world today, aside from the usual monsoon troughinesss (hardly a cloud over the entire continent of Australia)...

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

Frank

[Ptarmigan]

I tend to notice La Nina has generally later starts and ends. La Nina is generally more active. Good example is 1950, which had a strong La Nina. Also, the AMO was neutral in 1950. Despite it all, 13 storms formed, 11 of them hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. On the other hand, the most active seasons were during Neutral years. As for why WPAC and EPAC is below normal, a Neutral to weak La Nina ENSO, which is not too favorable for WPAC and EPAC and generally favorable to ATL. Less storms in EPAC and WPAC generally develop in La Nina cycles of ENSO. Also the Pacific Decadal Oscilliation is flip flopping from cool, neutral, to warm.

PDO Index

[AussieMark]

in 1961 August had 0 Activity but September had 5-6 storms of which 4 were hurricanes and they were all majors.

lets remember back to 2001. By the end of August that year we were only up to the "D" storm.

the first Hurricane of the Season was Erin on September 9.

yet 2001 ended up with 9 hurricanes and 4 majors.

[Coredesat]

in 1961 August had 0 Activity but September had 5-6 storms of which 4 were hurricanes and they were all majors.

lets remember back to 2001. By the end of August that year we were only up to the "D" storm.

the first Hurricane of the Season was Erin on September 9.

yet 2001 ended up with 9 hurricanes and 4 majors.

1961 was the other analogue I was looking for.