Convection w/ inflow-West-Central Caribbean Sea

[caneman]

I think we have an LLC developing at 11N and 76W. You can see it on visible and there is bending of the coulds in that area. This area looks ready to pop. Surprised it isn't an invest yet.

[caneman]

By the way maybe mods or starter of post can change the topic to 11 and 76N as that looks to be much closer to a possible LLC

[Sanibel]

Funny, that Colombian emergence point is identical to the system CMC developed prior to Erin.

Not sure what level that vorticity is at. It could be a healthy mid-level swirl with little surface reflection. (Synoptic) If not, it looks like something is getting going down there.

[RL3AO]

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT..IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

94L soon perhaps?

[Emmett_Brown]

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT..IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

Ok, I really dont agree with the description of this area being a tropical wave. The latest surface map doesnt reflect a wave in the central Carribean:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Tropical waves originate as mid level disturbances from Africa, and this clearly migrated N from South America. I also dont agree with the movement... i dont see W at 15-20. If anything, appears to be NW at a slower speed, perhaps 10-15. NHC is great, and i am not a pro met, but the description of this disturbance seems inaccurate.

[FlSteel]

Well at least it now got some mention in the 530 two.

[Dean4Storms]

There does appear to be some turning but it remains to be known at what level. If it persists and convection continues/grows into Monday we could see a player here IMO.

[wxman57]

Ok, I really dont agree with the description of this area being a tropical wave. The latest surface map doesnt reflect a wave in the central Carribean:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Tropical waves originate as mid level disturbances from Africa, and this clearly migrated N from South America. I also dont agree with the movement... i dont see W at 15-20. If anything, appears to be NW at a slower speed, perhaps 10-15. NHC is great, and i am not a pro met, but the description of this disturbance seems inaccurate.

Actually, it is a tropical wave, and the link you posted above shows it very well - it just wasn't drawn on the map. Note the isobar that "makes a wave" right over the disturbance. Don't know why it wasn't identified as such. I've been following this wave since it moved off the coast of Africa about 6 days ago.

Anyway, there may be a very, very weak low-level spin near 11N/76W. Problem is, an observing station on the coast of Venezuela just east of the apparent spin has been reporting a northerly wind rather than a southerly wind. With the strong ridge north of the system, it appears that a track westward into Central America may be most likely. Could spark a few storms in the BoC by Wednesday. May even have a brief shot at developing into a TD/TS before it moves inland into Mexico if it does slip far enough north to make it to the BoC, but I think that's about it.

[cycloneye]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 71W ON THE 1800 UTC
SURFACE MAP BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND
THE CURACAO VERTICAL SOUNDING THAT SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE
MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF
NICARAGUA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.



Oficially is a tropical wave per 8 PM Discussion by TPC.

[AnnularCane]

Doesn't sound like they're expecting it to be around very long.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 270214
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270924
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER COBB/RHOME

[Frank P]

looks like the little system in the SouCar is following an upper level low to its NW....it still has some level of rotation and now appears to also be moving in a more WNWerly motion... convection has been on the increase off to the NE of the broad center of rotation.. will have to see if it can develop any convection closer to the center, if it has any shot at all of developing..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Windsurfer_NYC]

734
ABNT20 KNHC 271513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO
HAS MOVED INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER...OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Sanibel]

Well-defined convection-less surface spiral near 12.5N-79W headed west for Nicaragua.

[Sanibel]

Good convection burst over the north half. Watch this if it tracks north of expected track.