Katrina Anniversary Thread

[Berwick Bay]

Since this is a "remembering Katrina" thread, I'd like to post my poem "Vieux Carre" here. I wrote it after a visit to New Orleans in June, and posted it on the off topic board since the moderators had asked that my poems be posted there (even if they did relate to hurricanes--I never really understood that). Anyway, I know that the poem is right on target with the thread and am asking again if I might be allowed to post my poem about New Orleans in the aftermath of Katrina here.

[MGC]

New Orleans will never be abandoned any time soon. So, are we going to abandon other coastal cities if they are struck by a major disaster? There is too many economical advantages of having cities by the water. New Orleans can be saved by building the Cat-5 levee system. Don't worry, Katrina won't hold on the the greatest disaster in American history for long. Just wait till a bit quake hits a major city out west. I guess we should abandon them cities out west, they do seem to have big fires every so often and the occasional great quake.......MGC

[Berwick Bay]

Well, New Orleans might not "be abandoned" MGC, I agree, but it might exist on a more reduced scale. Now I do agree that efforts can and should be made to restore and save a segment of the city. I don't know if its possible to save the city as a whole. Then there's the politics of the situation. For many on this board (which is centered around Fl) the idea of restoring even a part of the city seems a colossal waste. You hear it with comments like "they brought it on themselves". So its hard to say exactly how much effort we can expect in the future as far as saving the city goes.

[windstorm99]

Here is a page i dedicated to hurricane katrina on my website...


www.Adrian's Weather.com-Katrina Page

Let page load.

Also here's another a dedicated to the most incredible season on record.


www.Adrian's Weather.com-2005 hurricane season

[Category 5]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES... 140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. ANOTHER RECENT REPORT FROM A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY
WEST HARBOR INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 86 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING IN
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1130 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
NNNN

[Category 5]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... STILL MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 135
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND
FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA DROPPED TO 940 MB AT 0932Z.
SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS STARTED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE...WITH A FILLING OF THE EYE AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT BASED
MAINLY ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 115 KT FROM SAB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT SO FAR ARE 106 KT...WHICH
ARE LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR A 940 MB HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD...
PARTICULARLY FROM THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH CALL FOR
LANDFALL NEAR MORGAN CITY AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
RESPECTIVELY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL
BETWEEN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS
ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 24.5N 85.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
NNNN

[Stormcenter]

Well, New Orleans might not "be abandoned" MGC, I agree, but it might exist on a more reduced scale. Now I do agree that efforts can and should be made to restore and save a segment of the city. I don't know if its possible to save the city as a whole. Then there's the politics of the situation. For many on this board (which is centered around Fl) the idea of restoring even a part of the city seems a colossal waste. You hear it with comments like "they brought it on themselves". So its hard to say exactly how much effort we can expect in the future as far as saving the city goes.

It amazes me sometimes that comments like these are still being made. Do you think the same would be said if San Francisco had another catastrophic earthquake or L.A. finally was rocked by the big one? What about if Andrew had struck Miami directly? I very much doubt it.

[CrazyC83]

August 27 (the Saturday) would have been when I would have called the mandatory evacuations. This was the day I thought was the real turning point...

[Normandy]

Well, New Orleans might not "be abandoned" MGC, I agree, but it might exist on a more reduced scale. Now I do agree that efforts can and should be made to restore and save a segment of the city. I don't know if its possible to save the city as a whole. Then there's the politics of the situation. For many on this board (which is centered around Fl) the idea of restoring even a part of the city seems a colossal waste. You hear it with comments like "they brought it on themselves". So its hard to say exactly how much effort we can expect in the future as far as saving the city goes.

It amazes me sometimes that comments like these are still being made. Do you think the same would be said if San Francisco had another catastrophic earthquake or L.A. finally was rocked by the big one? What about if Andrew had struck Miami directly? I very much doubt it.

Comments like these are *somewhat* warranted though.
For me, unless a city has strict codes to survive AT LEAST 130mph sustained winds or greater, than it should not be on the coast...especially if its in a high-strike zone like the N gulf coast or Florida. This would lessen the damage from any Category 4-5 hurricane, and almost negate any damage caused from a Category 3 or less.
This is just wind, however. Surge is another beast and probably impossible to really stop.


In New Orleans' case, levees must be built to keep a 28+ foot surge out of the city (Remember, Katrina was NOT the worst case for this city). The return period of a storm producing a 28+ foot storm surge in NOLA is not very frequent (would take a true category 4/5 and a large one at that). If the levees can't hold anything greater than that, then yes, IMO, its foolish to rebuild NOLA as people's homes would only continue to get destroyed.

Just my thoughts.

[Aslkahuna]

Interestingly, San Francisco might NOT have been rebuilt after the 1906 Earthquake if the City Officials to a person had not deliberately downplayed the role of the earthquake as well as the fatalities. They convinced the Insurance Companies that earthquake damage (which was not covered) was minimal even to the extent of retouching photos to eliminate visual evidence and blamed the whole affair on the subsequent fire (which WAS covered). Later historical studies showed that the death toll in 1906 was in the 3-5000 range with many being trapped under collapsed buildings which burned before they could be rescued. Also, it was the earthquake that broke the water mains. When one considers that 350000 people were homeless, 80% of the city totally razed, and damages approaching 1 billion 1906 dollars, the 1906 event was one of the greatest US disasters and above Katrina in stature. A similar event today would probably be extremely costly but probably not as deadly. That said, however, Katrina was a major disaster with a death toll much higher than it should have been for this Country. Obviously something went very awry in the public response to the warnings and that should be considered a bigger disaster than the storm itself-1836 people should not have died in a hurricane in the US in the 21st Century. Only complacency and stupidity can explain that.

Steve

[MGC]

Well said Steve! I agree that the next major 1906 type earthquake to hit out west will make Katrina look like childs play damage wise. Consider that the typical bay area home costs 3-4 times the amout of a home down here and the numbers will add up quickly. A conflagration will likely occur. We had an apartment complex burn for 3 days just down the beach from me after Katrina. There was no water to put it out and all the fire engines in Pass Christian along with all the police cars were destroyed in the surge....MGC

[Category 5]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES... 500 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...25.1 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB...26.81 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT. A DROP IN THE EYE
GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN
INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER. GPS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION EARLIER TODAY SHOWED
KATRINA'S INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE 200 MB
LEVEL...WITH THE FLOW SPIRALING ANTICYLONICALLY OUTWARD IN A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BEYOND A COUPLE HUNDRED
N MI FROM THE CENTER. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...DUE TO INTERNAL
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANES
RARELY SUSTAIN SUCH EXTREME WINDS FOR MUCH TIME. HOWEVER WE SEE
NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE OF CATEGORY
4 OR 5 INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. KATRINA SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. RECALLING THAT THE AVERAGE NHC 24-HOUR
TRACK FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 N MI...THE ACTUAL LANDFALL POINT
COULD STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. ALSO...WE MUST CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE
HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...BECAUSE DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS...STORM SURGE...AND DANGEROUS WAVES EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE EYE. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHICH COUNTY
OR PARISH WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER.

THIS ADVISORY SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AT LEAST 150 N MI
INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 26.0N 88.1W 150 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 27.2N 88.9W 145 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.1N 89.6W 140 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.4N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 40.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z 45.0N 77.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1200Z 52.0N 69.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

the problem with the large coastal cities is that the return period for disasters is many times more frequent than for the WC cities near a fault line. Thus, comparing the two holds no water at all with me as the risk is far less for the WC cities.

As I have said before, NO coastal city should have a population of more than 100K, including Miami/Dade county

[Category 5]

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1,000,000,000,000,000 agree with Derek ortt on that one. I think the standards should be very high if any city is to be built. Why not we are the most powerful and tech advance nation on earth. But even so it would take a lot to make sure a city like New orleans had enough of a wall to protect it. I'm saying this because we should not have to see thousands die in cyclones in this country.

[LaPlaceFF]

It was a crazy time for me.....

[Ptarmigan]

Interestingly, San Francisco might NOT have been rebuilt after the 1906 Earthquake if the City Officials to a person had not deliberately downplayed the role of the earthquake as well as the fatalities. They convinced the Insurance Companies that earthquake damage (which was not covered) was minimal even to the extent of retouching photos to eliminate visual evidence and blamed the whole affair on the subsequent fire (which WAS covered). Later historical studies showed that the death toll in 1906 was in the 3-5000 range with many being trapped under collapsed buildings which burned before they could be rescued. Also, it was the earthquake that broke the water mains. When one considers that 350000 people were homeless, 80% of the city totally razed, and damages approaching 1 billion 1906 dollars, the 1906 event was one of the greatest US disasters and above Katrina in stature. A similar event today would probably be extremely costly but probably not as deadly. That said, however, Katrina was a major disaster with a death toll much higher than it should have been for this Country. Obviously something went very awry in the public response to the warnings and that should be considered a bigger disaster than the storm itself-1836 people should not have died in a hurricane in the US in the 21st Century. Only complacency and stupidity can explain that.

Steve

The 1906 San Francisco earthquake's death toll was much higher. I heard even as high as 6,000, which puts it at par with the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. I've seen photos of the aftermath and it looks really bad. I am not surprised that many people died. Most of the damage actually came from fire. If an earthquake hit San Francisco area again, it will make Katrina forgettable.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe that the sanfran will look small to the next northwest earth quake that strikes at the convergent zone off Oregon and Washington. I believe it could be a 9+ earth quake...This sucker is going to destroy everything like the indian ocean earth quake did. In cause a big tsunumi. I HATE TSUNUMI"S.

[Downdraft]

Perhaps we should abandon the middle of the country too. After all Yellowstone could go at any time. That of course was said tongue in cheek. My major concern is does anyone think New Orleans is any safer levee wise today than it was before Katrina? From what I've read about the corruption on the levee boards there we rebuilt them so they can fail again. I for one don't like throwing good money after bad. You build a city in a bowl, you change the natural flood plains of the Mississippi river and you design a system that can't meet worst case scenarios so unless we wise up anyone that moved away from there is better for it.

[CrazyC83]

I believe that the sanfran will look small to the next northwest earth quake that strikes at the convergent zone off Oregon and Washington. I believe it could be a 9+ earth quake...This sucker is going to destroy everything like the indian ocean earth quake did. In cause a big tsunumi. I HATE TSUNUMI"S.

At least the coastal area there is somewhat sparsely populated...the earthquake itself will do the big damage to the cities.