Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[skysummit]

The steering current setup is going to be different with this one, for sure. The high pressure that has been a permanent feature over the SE US is breaking.

You're right. I was just about to post something along those lines. The "heat dome" is falling apart. I don't see this one being a low lat, west runner....that's IF it develops (which I believe it will).

Does that mean this will be a fish?

No, not neccesarily...just means this won't be a low lying west runner like Dean. It'll be further north.

['CaneFreak]

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Look at that shear at 48 hours...almost non-existent. I've been saying...and I am going to say it again...here we go!!! September-October-November could be busier than we have seen in recent years. Just a side note: we have not seen a La Nina pattern in several years....which is probably why most folks are confused as to why we havent seen a lot of activity...look at the last La Nina pattern...I believe it was back in 1999...FLOYD? Ring any bells? The "F" storm in early September...HMMMMMM....thats all I am going to say...

[windstorm99]

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Look at that shear at 48 hours...almost non-existent. I've been saying...and I am going to say it again...here we go!!! September-October-November could be busier than we have seen in recent years. Just a side note: we have not seen a La Nina pattern in several years....which is probably why most folks are confused as to why we havent seen a lot of activity...look at the last La Nina pattern...I believe it was back in 1999...FLOYD? Ring any bells? The "F" storm in early September...HMMMMMM....thats all I am going to say...

[Nimbus]

Glad you put the quickscat in the title, I had just been glancing at the IR images and did not see the circulation. By the time this gets to -50W it should be getting more moisture wrap. Hope they get an invest going with models soon for planning purposes.

[windstorm99]

['CaneFreak]

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Look at that shear at 48 hours...almost non-existent. I've been saying...and I am going to say it again...here we go!!! September-October-November could be busier than we have seen in recent years. Just a side note: we have not seen a La Nina pattern in several years....which is probably why most folks are confused as to why we havent seen a lot of activity...look at the last La Nina pattern...I believe it was back in 1999...FLOYD? Ring any bells? The "F" storm in early September...HMMMMMM....thats all I am going to say...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html

In addition, thats right, I am not thru yet...there were 10 STORMS IN THE SEPT-NOV TIME FRAME...Derek you were correct...I want to emphasize it a little more..batten down the hatches folks, 'cause mother nature is about to explode!!! There is too much energy out there that needs to be removed for us to see another '06...trust me folks...and its all going to start with our current system. So get ready now!!! This wave is starting to show signs of an "S-shape" as we call it in meteorology on visible sat images...that is a good sign for development.

[AtlanticWind]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST N OF
THE ITCZ. A 1012 MB LOW IS THUS PUT AT 10.5N35W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W.
FURTHER N...AN AREA OF DRY AIR/ AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE N OF 15N.

[AtlanticWind]

A 1012 low , I think we should see an invest shortly.

[fci]

I also want to thank whomever put the quickscat reference in the title.
These threads can be lengthy and putting a highlight in the title with the page to refer to is of great assistance!

[cycloneye]

I also want to thank whomever put the quickscat reference in the title.
These threads can be lengthy and putting a highlight in the title with the page to refer to is of great assistance!

I did.We are doing this kind of identification of important information when there is a long thread for the members to go directly to it and not go thru the many pages.We did it with Dean and worked very good.

[RL3AO]

I don't think we will have an invest until it gets a solid, round burst of convection. It is still elongated along the ITCZ.

[Derek Ortt]

and I believe the TWD is a mistake

I was able at HRD this afternoon to trace most of the dry air to the Azores region, not the Sahara. Thus, there should not be the low-level easterly wind surge as well with this system, making conditions more favorable for development

[windstorm99]

and I believe the TWD is a mistake

I was able at HRD this afternoon to trace most of the dry air to the Azores region, not the Sahara. Thus, there should not be the low-level easterly wind surge as well with this system, making conditions more favorable for development

Derek if this developes which is a big if you think this has a chance at the eastcoast?Thanks again.Adrian

[Derek Ortt]

That would be a 10-12 day forecast, we al know that cannot be made

I also do not see this developing quickly. The low looks more like a shear axis... it needs a good persistent burst of convection to have a chance.

I do not see this developing within the next 48 hours, though it could later in the week

[x-y-no]

No particularly dry air chasing this wave in the Cape Verde soundings:

[RL3AO]

Heres the 14-day track

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey you forgot the moving backward possibilities on that map.

[AtlanticWind]

I cant believe you left North dakota out of the cone !

[AnnularCane]

Can you explain your reasons why you think it will go there?

[kurtpage]

Heres the 14-day track

Is there any way that you can repost that image? or show a different link to it...I can not see Imageshack or photobucket here....