SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[JenBayles]

FLOOD WARNING
TXC201-170537-
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

* LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT JACKSON ROAD
* LATEST STAGE: 19.0 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE: 18.9 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE BAYOU ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL RISE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE RIVER UNTIL WATER LEVELS RECEDE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID ANY WATER COVERED ROADS AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

[vbhoutex]

Don't like what I am seeing out in the Gulf either!!! Another huge blob of convection is building. Hopefully it won't make it our way. Here in the Galleria area we are up to 3" now and apparently from what I see on radar and the post above much more is on the way. We are actually in a lull right now, but it is already darkening up again. gotta love these tropical systems!!!NOT!!!!!

[JenBayles]

I don't like the way The Blob that Ate Houston appears to have gone as far East as it's going to go, and appears to be pushing back to the west...

[JenBayles]

Sometimes I hate it when I'm right. It IS coming back my way. David and everyone else in the Galleria - I hope you can get home OK.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC201-162200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
156 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 151 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER MANY PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
HARRIS COUNTY. THIS AREA EXPERIENCED SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER THIS AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SLOWING THE DRAINAGE OF ALREADY FLOODED AREAS.

* FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN OR NEAR...
THE MEDICAL CENTER...MINUTE MAID PARK...MEMORIAL...HOBBY AIRPORT...
HERMAN PARK...THE GALLERIA...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SPRING VALLEY...
SOUTHSIDE PLACE...SOUTH HOUSTON...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE VILLAGE AND HEDWIG VILLAGE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE CONTINUED FLOODING OF
LAND ADJACENT TO CREEKS AND BAYOUS...DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING
SPOTS. ADDITIONAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON...STREETS...FRONTAGE
ROADS...AND HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE GROUND...TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:00 PM FOR THE WARNED AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont like the looks of Dean.... That is making me nervous!!

[Ptarmigan]

I see more storms coming to us from the Gulf. Dean has me concerned too.

[Yankeegirl]

This is from Jeff... I am concerned...

Dean was ignored today due to ongoing flood issues in Harris County.



Very dangerous hurricane forecasted into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.



Residents along the NW and W Gulf of Mexico should review hurricane preparedness procedures and be prepared to enact these plans late this weekend or early next week.



State of TX EOC will begin H-120 count down at noon Friday for fuel transport to evac zones and sweeping of evac routes. Local EOC’s and will begin local initiation of hurricane procedures plans at noon Friday.



Discussion:



Category 2 hurricane racing toward the Windward Islands with 100mph winds. Dean looks like a classic developing hurricane this evening with deep cold cloud tops over the center with an eye peaking through at times. Recon. reported a central pressure of 974mb this afternoon.



Track:



Forecast track is clustered along a due west track through the Caribbean with Dean reaching the western Caribbean late this weekend as a powerful cat 4/5 hurricane capable of catastrophic damage. GFDL continues to be a northern outlier taking the hurricane toward the middle/upper TX coast on its 18Z run. GFS and other models are cluster southward along the TX coast and N Mexico coast…although GFS ensembles are showing more of a northerly track. Keys to the final track will be weakness over TX from Erin and TUTT forecast to move westward across the Gulf this weekend. The weaker the ridge over TX the more northerly the turn. Small intense hurricanes like Dean want to turn northward and bump the ridge and attempt to find a weakness…if one is there it will want to turn into it. Remember Rita was forecast to go into Mexico at Day 5 so no one within the error cone should disregard the potential impact of this hurricane.



Intensity:



The intensity guidance is down right troubling. GFDL shows a strong cat 5 (170 + mph) plowing across the Gulf…geez. See no reason why cat 4 intensity will not be reached in the Caribbean and maintained through landfall on the Yucatan…may see cat 5. Given excellent upper level outflow and high ocean heat content Dean will become a very dangerous hurricane. Will have to see how Dean’s inner structure is disrupted over the Yucatan although the fast forward motion may not allow for much weakening. All guidance brings Dean toward the western Gulf as a major hurricane…cat 3 or higher and I see no reason to go against this thinking.



Preparations:



Coastal residents along the Gulf coast need to frequently check on the progress of Dean this weekend.



Keep gas tanks filled above 3/4ths of a tank at all times to help ease a rush on gas supplies early next week if an evacuation is called for.



Residents in coastal evacuation zones should be prepared for possible evacuation orders as early as Monday morning…due to the fast forward motion the prep. Window is going to close very quickly and critical decisions related to evacuation cannot wait until the hurricane is in the Gulf.



Employers should notify hurricane ride out teams before the close of business on Friday so they can prepare over the weekend.

[jasons2k]

Wow, all the storms just evaporated...catch y'all in the Tropical forums

[Extremeweatherguy]

For anyone interested, here is the post storm analysis on T.S. Erin from the Houston NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/rev ... in2007.txt

- The highest wind speed in SE Texas that I could find was an unofficial gust to 39mph at Jamaica Beach. The highest gust in Houston proper was 31mph at IAH.

- 3 deaths resulted from Erin in Harris County.

[JenBayles]

Ho hum.... Hot and dry under the Bear Creek Dome. Is it Fall yet?

[Yankeegirl]

I am so bored with this weather.... When is fall going to be here, I second that jen!!

[jasons2k]

We're getting a little storm here with a LOT fo lightning.

What's up with the NWS radar?? The last two days it's been going out a lot...

[vbhoutex]

Was out at lunch during that. We were at 610 and Beechnut. Winds and rian were intially out of the East, but as we sat and ate they turned to from the West. My guess on the winds would be sustained near 35 for several minutes with gusts into the 40's. torrential rains at the same time resulted in basically white out conditions for a few minutes. Did not see any damage in the area as we left surprisingly.

[jasons2k]

Storms going-up just north of town look really impressive. I can see some pretty high towers going up. Probably will be a mess just in time for rush hour

[Ed Mahmoud]

Storms going-up just north of town look really impressive. I can see some pretty high towers going up. Probably will be a mess just in time for rush hour

I hope they make it to Northern Harris County.

My yard needs the rain.

[srainhoutx]

We're getting a little storm here with a LOT fo lightning.

What's up with the NWS radar?? The last two days it's been going out a lot...

4pm Monday-

THE KHGX RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN INTO TOMORROW 828 AS ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE ON ORDER. 82707 2120Z LW

[southerngale]

We've had on and off storms all day, but I think it's been thundering just about all day.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC245-272230-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0107.070827T2206Z-070827T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BEVIL OAKS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF BEAUMONT. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHINA BY 530 PM CDT...
FANNETT BY 530 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3009 9412 3016 9414 3016 9428 3012 9430
3005 9436 2991 9431 2991 9411

$$

SHAMBURGER

[southerngale]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC245-272300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0108.070827T2228Z-070827T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BEAUMONT. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DOWNTOWN BEAUMONT THROUGH 600 PM PM CDT

AT 522 PM CDT...BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL IN WESTERN
BEAUMONT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2998 9407 3016 9413 3010 9437 2991 9433

$$

SHAMBURGER







SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

TXC245-272230-
/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-070827T2230Z/
JEFFERSON TX-
516 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF CHINA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF
BEAUMONT. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3007 9416 3016 9418 3016 9428 3012 9430
3010 9436 3005 9436 2991 9433 2992 9415

$$

SHAMBURGER

[southerngale]

3.40/hr. rain rate currently in West Beaumont... very intense storms late this afternoon.

Only 71° though.

Edit: 5 minutes later... it's 3.60/hr rain rate

[Stratosphere747]

I can actually confirm this Beaumont activity....

In town for a few days on business and was surprised with how intense the storms were from the drive in from Winnie in the last hour. Quite a bit of lightening and thunder.

It's been a few months since being over this way, and kept thinking to myself with all the rain in June/July that I would come over to a few days of non-stop rain.