Long-Term Model Runs

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boca
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#241 Postby boca » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:00 am

The way the season is going the La Nina theory can be thrown out the window.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#242 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:33 am

hurricanetrack wrote:Add to that- somehow the folks at the UKMET office saw this coming in their seasonal forecast calling for mediorce activity at best.
Remember the Ukmet forecast was for a significant cooling trend in the Atlantic ocean throughout the entire hurricane season. This was a major contributor to their below average forecast. In fact, in their outlook this is the only reasoning given as to why the computer model is calling for between 9-15 named storms. A cooling trend in the Atlantic has not materialized. Indeed, quite the opposite is happening. We have seen a significant warming trend in the Atlantic throughout the entire hurricane season. Even if their forecast were to verify, it would not mean much at all. You know why your teacher gave you 1/2 or no credit at all on math problems where you got the answer right, but did not show your work or did it the incorrect way? Because knowing how you got the answer right is most important. The Ukmet forecast is already a major bust of epic proportions. Cooling trend? Wow.
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Derek Ortt

#243 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:50 am

la nina primarily influences the latter parts of the season, so throwing that theory out now is not appropriate at all
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#244 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:55 am

You can slice it anyway you want folks but the bottom line is how many storms actually make landfall in the U.S. and how strong they are when do. So far in 2007 we are doing GREAT and there is nothing out there to make me think anything will change soon unless somethings pops up in the GOM or NW Carribean. Yeah it's still early and it only takes one but the ocean has been warm and conditions have been ripe for awhile now but not much before or after Dean. Well one thing we know for sure is that we won't have anothing Katrina type storm on the August 29th anniversary...thank goodness! My fingers and toes remain crossed.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#245 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:59 am

boca wrote:The way the season is going the La Nina theory can be thrown out the window.


Wow....Can you back up such statements with some facts...Thanks
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#246 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:02 am

hurricanetrack wrote:Is the GFS broke? Or is it that there will be no named storms for another 10 days or more? What the heck? The 00UTC run shows very little in the way of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

So, either the GFS is just not seeing what is coming and there will be several named storms in the coming days/weeks or....

it is working just fine and for some reason the Atlantic hurricane season is not going to do very much for reasons yet unknown to the many scientists in the U.S. Add to that- somehow the folks at the UKMET office saw this coming in their seasonal forecast calling for mediorce activity at best.

All indications seemed to point to a very active season with the east Atlantic PERHAPS being not as active as it could be, but that does not explain why tropical waves seem to move off Africa and slowly die away as they go west.

I cannot wait to see what September 10 looks like compared to what the GFS is showing.

BTW- the 10 day ECMWF shows nothing in the Atlantic either. Wow....astounding.


The first things that pops into my head mark is cooler SST'S in the eastern atlantic might be one of the reasons so far this season.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#247 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:05 am

*sigh*

I suppose this is what happens when the tropics are quiet in a tropics forum.

A couple of seemingly forgotten ideas:

1. The UKMET has been forecasting cyclogenesis in the eastern atlantic for a few runs now...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

2. The global models are simply not very good at forecasting cyclogenesis unless there is some pre-existing disturbance that shows up very well in the models ahead of time.

Yes...it is peculiar that we are getting so late in August and we have only seen two Atlantic tropical cyclones.

But this is a GLOBAL not local deal. The heat will get out of the tropics. The western Atlantic is already starting to bubble a little.

October is going to be much busier than August this year...I am almost certain.

MW
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#248 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:20 am

MWatkins wrote:*sigh*

I suppose this is what happens when the tropics are quiet in a tropics forum.

A couple of seemingly forgotten ideas:

1. The UKMET has been forecasting cyclogenesis in the eastern atlantic for a few runs now...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

2. The global models are simply not very good at forecasting cyclogenesis unless there is some pre-existing disturbance that shows up very well in the models ahead of time.

Yes...it is peculiar that we are getting so late in August and we have only seen two Atlantic tropical cyclones.

But this is a GLOBAL not local deal. The heat will get out of the tropics. The western Atlantic is already starting to bubble a little.

October is going to be much busier than August this year...I am almost certain.

MW


<choke> on my pretzel with the thought of the OCT being busy as I think back to 05
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#249 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:26 am

MWatkins wrote:*sigh*

I suppose this is what happens when the tropics are quiet in a tropics forum.

A couple of seemingly forgotten ideas:

1. The UKMET has been forecasting cyclogenesis in the eastern atlantic for a few runs now...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

2. The global models are simply not very good at forecasting cyclogenesis unless there is some pre-existing disturbance that shows up very well in the models ahead of time.

Yes...it is peculiar that we are getting so late in August and we have only seen two Atlantic tropical cyclones.

But this is a GLOBAL not local deal. The heat will get out of the tropics. The western Atlantic is already starting to bubble a little.

October is going to be much busier than August this year...I am almost certain.

MW


Mike,

What happens if the 2007 season remains quiet or below average? I and I'm sure many others on this board are concerned about storms that may eventually affect the U.S.
In October the likelihood of tropical systems affecting the U.S. is of course very possible but much less likely then in August and September thanks to fronts and just the normal pattern changes. So in my opinion they could have a hundred storms in October and as long as they are fish storms or don't make landfall in the U.S. then I'm a happy camper. Now I'm NOT downplaying the affect it may have on non-U.S. territories. I don't want to see anyone affected by any tropical systems.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#250 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:36 am

I agree with Mike here and as Derek mentions La Nina years typically feature more active late seasons with systems developing even through November.

I would also expect to see a ramp up in activity for Sept and October. Let me stress for those especially in peninsula Florida that October is typically a month to watch for us. Wilma was the classic example and was not a rare event by any means as tracks impacting Florida usually come from the South and West We also see systems like the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921 that swept through West Central Florida as a major in late October. If October ends up being active I would expect some activity in the NW Caribbean and GOM and that would put Florida at some risk.
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#251 Postby Meso » Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:59 am

Image
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#252 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:00 pm

I wonder if that could be the "big wave" over Africa right now.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#253 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:31 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.6N 27.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.08.2007 12.6N 27.6W WEAK

00UTC 31.08.2007 12.3N 32.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2007 12.3N 33.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2007 13.5N 34.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2007 15.6N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 17.6N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



12z UKMET

Mike Watkins,Ukmet again.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#254 Postby boca » Mon Aug 27, 2007 1:39 pm

boca wrote:The way the season is going the La Nina theory can be thrown out the window.


I retract my earlier statement on the La Nina theory until Nov 30th upon further thought and what Derek and Mike Watkins said above.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#255 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 27, 2007 1:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.6N 27.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.08.2007 12.6N 27.6W WEAK

00UTC 31.08.2007 12.3N 32.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2007 12.3N 33.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2007 13.5N 34.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2007 15.6N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 17.6N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



12z UKMET

Mike Watkins,Ukmet again.


Image
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#256 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Aug 27, 2007 2:06 pm

Storm 50?
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#257 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:09 pm

boca wrote:
boca wrote:The way the season is going the La Nina theory can be thrown out the window.


I retract my earlier statement on the La Nina theory until Nov 30th upon further thought and what Derek and Mike Watkins said above.


Believe me I think you are safe after October 15th 2007. IMO
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#258 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:31 pm

Wow- the UKMET takes that cyclone west and then east and then west again, with a lot of northward motion to it too. That's awesome.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#259 Postby flwxwatcher » Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:21 pm

I would be also looking at the area around Florida this week-end for some possible home brew. A weak boundary looks to settle in the Northern Gulf and offshore atlantic waters. Something to watch for at least IMHO..
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#260 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:53 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.6N 27.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.08.2007 12.6N 27.6W WEAK

00UTC 31.08.2007 12.3N 32.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2007 12.3N 33.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2007 13.5N 34.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2007 15.6N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 17.6N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



12z UKMET

Mike Watkins,Ukmet again.


Image


Image
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