NE Gulf of Mexico This Weekend.

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS continues to depict a weak surface low developing in the NE GOM come this weekend on the tail end of the front expected to wash out just offshore. Now the GFS is not developing it into a TC, but this scenario this time of year will have to be monitored if it comes to fruition. Just thought I'd bring this up with it being so slow right now.

[A1A]

Hmm, I didn't see that in the run I just looked at. The Hcane slamming into the Carolinas around Sept. 12 is interesting though.

[rainydaze]

Miami NWS briefly mentions low in the Gulf

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BY FRIDAY THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RECEDES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THUS
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY IN THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE AT
MID WEEK IF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO RECEDE.

[flwxwatcher]

This experimental project has been showing an increased Probability of something brewing in the Gulf the last 4 runs.. Lets see how this pans out.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

[baygirl_1]

The Mobile NWS mentioned this in the forecast discussion this afternoon. It was just 2 lines, but it caught my eye. Here's the quote from the forecast discussion pertaining to the GFS:

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM ALL MOVE A
TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY AS WELL WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ON THE TAIL
END OF THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WHICH SETTLES INTO THE MARINE
AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

It's a little confusing because they mention a tropical wave moving into the Gulf, but then talk about something spinning up from the tail end of a front. I guess we shall see...

[Recurve]

Mets here are saying it won't be a surface feature.

[Dean4Storms]

Well I wanted to mention it because anytime you get a surface low in the GOM this time of year it bears watching, even if the models fail to do anything with it at this point.

We'll just have to wait to see what becomes of it if anything at all.

[KatDaddy]

FYI from this mornings Mobile,AL AFD:

A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY APPARENTLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE WEST
SIDE OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARDS THE COAST AND
THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[flwxwatcher]

Interesting the 12Z run of the HWRF for INVEST 94L developes a Tropical System in the Northern Gulf and sends it toward the FL Panhandle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

Interesting the 12Z run of the HWRF for INVEST 94L developes a Tropical System in the Northern Gulf and sends it toward the FL Panhandle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

yeah I saw that - the GFS has a 1012 mb low near Mobile on Friday and another low off the NE coast of FL - very strange alignment. Just what we need, a labor day storm in the GOM, yikes!