Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[Tropics Guy]

Could be a weak low at 10N 37W, with the new convection over that spot.

[GeneratorPower]

I am set on just one or two more systems all year, with potentially catastrophic impacts. Look, for all the arguing about Dean making cooler water in the Caribbean, etc, absolutely NOTHING has tapped the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Gulf Stream. I went swimming in the 90+F water off the AL gulf coast last weekend. It's ripe to be tapped.

Look, this year is obviously not going to see 28 named storms, no way. But whatever does get going is going to be insane. Look at Dean. 165mph? That's incredible. Look at the heat content! You better hope nothing enters the gulf next week because that protective high pressure cell is going away. If we get anything TS or better entering the gulf, there is no way out and it's going to be lights-out for somebody big time.

The best course of action is to wait the 24-hours required for EVERYTHING to change in the tropics and watch everything closely.

Come back tomorrow night and it'll look totally different.

[RL3AO]

You know that avatar that some people have where than guy bangs his head on the keyboard and his head falls apart? Thats what I feel like doing after reading that last page.

['CaneFreak]

precipitable water map...not dry air....upper ridge setting up on back side of ULL currently located in west atlantic...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it was not for the dean this season would have less then 3 points of ACE. This season was on track to be one of the saddest in the last 150 years based on ACE and overall strength. It would not at all suprize me if september has less then 3 named storms with only one becomng hurricane. The dry air layer is amazing over the tropical atlatnic. Mind blowing on the differences between seasons.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What I mean by dry air is that there is a stable layer, dry air is normally very stable. Also a strong azores high is setting it up. Just look at the south Atlantic to see what this can do to tropical cyclones.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Something to taste the after wash on intill the next one...




Even better wahooo




Some western pacific eye candy



One more of Ivan

[tropicsPR]

Convection seems to be firing up near the low pressure area...

[Meso]

00z EURO liking this system. (I think it's this area that it's developing,hard to tell since other models also develop something behind it later on)


00z CMC

TWO : 5:30 AM

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH

[Nimbus]

Low level circulation is still evident in the early morning visibles. Must still be a surface low near 41w.

Track would appear to be W or WNW south of a ridge all the way to 80W. There is talk of a front in the NE gulf this weekend so this is going to get interesting. The ridge may build a little stronger than expected causing the front to retreat or the front may dig.

Unless the front digs into a savior trough for Florida this is looking like a gulf storm.

[Meso]

GFS finally holding this as a closed low too now,Previous runs it moved it as an open wave.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 16W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 34W-45W.

[Vortex]

00z ECMWF Loop of wave at 40W...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[wxman57]

It's now invest 94L. Not much to look at, but it may have a chance to develop. Interesting that the first BAM models run it into South America.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070828 1200 070829 0000 070829 1200 070830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 40.0W 10.7N 42.9W 11.3N 45.8W 12.1N 48.4W
BAMD 10.5N 40.0W 10.7N 42.7W 10.5N 45.3W 10.0N 47.6W
BAMM 10.5N 40.0W 10.7N 42.7W 10.7N 45.4W 10.6N 47.9W
LBAR 10.5N 40.0W 10.8N 43.2W 10.9N 46.2W 10.9N 49.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 1200 070901 1200 070902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 51.1W 14.2N 56.1W 14.3N 60.7W 14.2N 65.9W
BAMD 9.4N 49.9W 9.0N 54.8W 9.3N 60.4W 9.4N 65.9W
BAMM 10.3N 50.4W 10.2N 55.8W 10.2N 61.7W 10.3N 67.6W
LBAR 10.7N 51.8W 10.7N 57.3W 11.1N 62.7W 10.2N 65.6W
SHIP 51KTS 64KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 51KTS 64KTS 72KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 40.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Go to Active storms forum for information about this new invest.