Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Here we have it so post away.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC TUE AUG 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070828 1200 070829 0000 070829 1200 070830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 40.0W 10.7N 42.9W 11.3N 45.8W 12.1N 48.4W
BAMD 10.5N 40.0W 10.7N 42.7W 10.5N 45.3W 10.0N 47.6W
BAMM 10.5N 40.0W 10.7N 42.7W 10.7N 45.4W 10.6N 47.9W
LBAR 10.5N 40.0W 10.8N 43.2W 10.9N 46.2W 10.9N 49.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 1200 070901 1200 070902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 51.1W 14.2N 56.1W 14.3N 60.7W 14.2N 65.9W
BAMD 9.4N 49.9W 9.0N 54.8W 9.3N 60.4W 9.4N 65.9W
BAMM 10.3N 50.4W 10.2N 55.8W 10.2N 61.7W 10.3N 67.6W
LBAR 10.7N 51.8W 10.7N 57.3W 11.1N 62.7W 10.2N 65.6W
SHIP 51KTS 64KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 51KTS 64KTS 72KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 40.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

conditions are quite favorable for rapikd intensification if this ever comes together

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

right now 94L don't look that impressive to me, but like always we gotta wait and see what happens.

[DESTRUCTION5]

conditions are quite favorable for rapikd intensification if this ever comes together

Does have a nice Envelope for Rapikd intensification...LOL

[Derek Ortt]

looking at the BAM suite, a stronger storm may move more south in this instance... will look more whern I get into the office. Woul be awful news as SA is very poorly quipped to handle canes and TCs are very destructive there

[boca]

I used to think that South America was safe from storms in the Northern Hemisphere due to the coriolis effect of systems moving alittle north of due west. I guess I was wrong especially if 94L develops and hits South America.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_94.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

I would not count on the Bamms Verifing...2 of the globals ive seen so far bring this N of PR and east of the Bahamas..

[stormchazer]

Seems premature to name this an invest based on its appearance but I am sensing from Derek's comments that the conditions look better then good for development, if it choses to develop.

Lets see the good research folk post storms that have hit SA from this location?!!

[clfenwi]

Seems premature to name this an invest based on its appearance but I am sensing from Derek's comments that the conditions look better then good for development, if it choses to develop.

Lets see the good research folk post storms that have hit SA from this location?!!

Alma, 1974



Also, Bret 1993



One more, started further south, but went north before curving back south

[Chacor]

Interesting to compare the SHIPS runs with the LGEM that was referenced quite a bit during Dean:

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    36    43    51    57    64    69    75    79    82
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    36    43    51    57    64    69    72    59    44
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    34    40    46    53    62    63    54    48

[wxman57]

I would not count on the Bamms Verifing...2 of the globals ive seen so far bring this N of PR and east of the Bahamas..

Quite an impressive ridge keeping pace with the disturbance to the north. Remember that the globals were turning Dean across the NE Caribbean and taking it toward the east U.S. coast for a while. They didn't have a good handle on the ridge north of Dean, probably because of a general lack of good upper-air data in the central Atlantic. So I wouldn't rule out a west or just south of west track. I notice that the GFS indicates the 850mb vorticity center at 10N as of 12z today then almost immediately jumps it up to 15N (by this evening). I doubt that the disturbance will jump to 15N tonight, so the GFS's projection of its path is highly suspect.

That said, doesn't look impressive to me at all on satellite, but it could develop in a few days.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Yeah the ridge is quite strong to its north though the GFS does weaken it a touch by 48hrs which would probably suggest a WNW type track to ermge after then into the southern Caribbean.

[otowntiger]

conditions are quite favorable for rapikd intensification if this ever comes together

I guess this is somewhat of a philosophical question, but if the conditions truly are quite favorable for rapid intensification, why isn't it intensifying now? It probably is because we still don't have a good handle on intensity forecasts, because based on all we know, the conditions are favorable, but something unknown is prohibiting it, right?

[skysummit]

conditions are quite favorable for rapikd intensification if this ever comes together

I guess this is somewhat of a philosophical question, but if the conditions truly are quite favorable for rapid intensification, why isn't it intensifying now? It probably is because we still don't have a good handle on intensity forecasts, because based on all we know, the conditions are favorable, but something unknown is prohibiting it, right?

Note Ortt's last words...."if this ever comes together". That's why....it's not yet together yet.

[bayoubebe]

I don't like the discussion about something forming in the gulf this weekend. That would totally ruin our beach plans, and ruin many people's Labor Day plans.

Stay out the gulf bad weather!!

[Meso]

Waves take longer to organize since they need to have certain characteristics,which they take longer to aquire than it does for a system that already has a LLC and is organizing to intensify

[gatorcane]

You can see here why WxMan and Derek suspect a possible path into South America.

[skysummit]

EUMETSAT at 1300:


HERE