Long-Term Model Runs

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hial2
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#261 Postby hial2 » Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:01 pm

A little lower latitude at landfall and 50 is just like...well,you know.... :eek:
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#262 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:49 pm

00z GFS at 312 hours

This is the peak day of the season September 10th.I know long range forecasts are like The Browns winning the Super Bowl but finnally there is action in this model.Lets see in the next runs how the trend continue to evolve towards more activity.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#263 Postby Fego » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:42 am

The Browns?... what about the Cubs winning the World Series? :spam:

About the GFS, at least some action. Now we need to look for a trend and other models showing the same. I'm not talking about the CMC ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation ) because have been in a weird mode so far.
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#264 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:48 am

Image
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#265 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:41 am

252 hours

Look what is in the pipe of 12z GFS in long range.
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#266 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:45 am

Image
CHOO CHOO
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#267 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:48 am

Showing a big bubble(high) of alot of trouble too..
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Scorpion

#268 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:55 am

Wouldn't that be something? A major hitting Florida while another hurricane is about to hit the Antilles. Imagine tracking two hurricanes at once..
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#269 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:59 am

312 hours

Dont look now.

360 hours

Dont look

384 hours
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#270 Postby dizzyfish » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:08 pm

:eek:

We all better hope that this model run is nuts!!!!
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#271 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:17 pm

dizzyfish wrote::eek:

We all better hope that this model run is nuts!!!!


Riding the coast there a little bit
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#272 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:23 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Scorpion

#273 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:24 pm

Interesting that the GFS has the two storms in very similar positions several runs in a row so far out. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#274 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:25 pm

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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#275 Postby flwxwatcher » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:30 pm

Looks like the GFS is signaling that the Atlantic is about to get busy.Of course not paying attention to the storm positions at 384 Hrs, just to the fact that it forecasts conditions to become favorable across the Atlantic Basin. WXMAN57 . I hope you enjoyed your quiet week-end :D
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Scorpion

#276 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:42 pm

I can't imagine how busy it would be here with 3 storms under a big ridge all aiming at the CONUS
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#277 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:54 pm

:eek: D'OH!
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#278 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:54 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.5N 27.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.08.2007 11.5N 27.8W WEAK

00UTC 31.08.2007 12.4N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2007 13.6N 30.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2007 15.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2007 16.4N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.7N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 17.0N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2007 17.2N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2007 17.7N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



12z UKMET
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#279 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:56 pm

I hate to be negative to those who are looking for tropical activity but if we are talking two weeks or so out from today then I wouldn't worry much until they actually materialize. IMO
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#280 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:09 pm

I agree that the GFS is signaling a more favorable change toward tropical development in about a week. This coincides with the peak of the season so I'm really not surprised. What is a bit shocking, to say the least, is the rather extensive and prolonged 500 mb ridging across nearly the entire Atlantic ocean during the next two weeks as predicted by the GFS model. We in the US, as well as our friends in the Greater Antilles, could be in for a wild ride, if this pans out. :eek:
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