
Long-Term Model Runs
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
A little lower latitude at landfall and 50 is just like...well,you know.... 

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- cycloneye
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
00z GFS at 312 hours
This is the peak day of the season September 10th.I know long range forecasts are like The Browns winning the Super Bowl but finnally there is action in this model.Lets see in the next runs how the trend continue to evolve towards more activity.
This is the peak day of the season September 10th.I know long range forecasts are like The Browns winning the Super Bowl but finnally there is action in this model.Lets see in the next runs how the trend continue to evolve towards more activity.
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- Fego
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
The Browns?... what about the Cubs winning the World Series?
About the GFS, at least some action. Now we need to look for a trend and other models showing the same. I'm not talking about the CMC ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation ) because have been in a weird mode so far.

About the GFS, at least some action. Now we need to look for a trend and other models showing the same. I'm not talking about the CMC ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation ) because have been in a weird mode so far.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
dizzyfish wrote::eek:
We all better hope that this model run is nuts!!!!
Riding the coast there a little bit
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
Looks like the GFS is signaling that the Atlantic is about to get busy.Of course not paying attention to the storm positions at 384 Hrs, just to the fact that it forecasts conditions to become favorable across the Atlantic Basin. WXMAN57 . I hope you enjoyed your quiet week-end 

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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.5N 27.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2007 11.5N 27.8W WEAK
00UTC 31.08.2007 12.4N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2007 13.6N 30.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2007 15.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2007 16.4N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2007 16.7N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2007 17.0N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2007 17.2N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2007 17.7N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12z UKMET
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.5N 27.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2007 11.5N 27.8W WEAK
00UTC 31.08.2007 12.4N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2007 13.6N 30.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2007 15.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2007 16.4N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2007 16.7N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2007 17.0N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2007 17.2N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2007 17.7N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12z UKMET
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
I hate to be negative to those who are looking for tropical activity but if we are talking two weeks or so out from today then I wouldn't worry much until they actually materialize. IMO
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs
I agree that the GFS is signaling a more favorable change toward tropical development in about a week. This coincides with the peak of the season so I'm really not surprised. What is a bit shocking, to say the least, is the rather extensive and prolonged 500 mb ridging across nearly the entire Atlantic ocean during the next two weeks as predicted by the GFS model. We in the US, as well as our friends in the Greater Antilles, could be in for a wild ride, if this pans out. 

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