Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Meso]

For model runs on Invest 94L.

[cycloneye]

12 hours

GFS is starting to roll its 12z run.Lets see if it shows the system from the start of has nothing like in past runs.

[cycloneye]

24 hours

No low pressure in 24 hours.

[Meso]

at 42 hours,showing nothing. But still has vorticity with the wave. But GFS isn't great for cyclone genesis.

[cycloneye]

But is performed great with Dean from start to finish.

[flwxwatcher]

at 42 hours,showing nothing. But still has vorticity with the wave. But GFS isn't great for cyclone genesis.

To be honest none of the Global Models are tremendous yet for Cyclone Genesis. We saw that with Dean and Erin as a few examples.

[gatorcane]

Yes it did but that doesn't mean it will do well in this case. The GFS has been dead wrong on many other cases.

[cycloneye]

54 hours

It shows an open wave moving into the Eastern Caribbean.

[Meso]

It did,It tends to do okay when it picks up on low pressures over africa and then moving them off as what happened with Dean,often it isn't too great in development with a possible system that's forming from an area which it has not been latching onto. Just an observation,not sure if it's accurate.

[flwxwatcher]

:uarrow: But is performed great with Dean from start to finish.

Yes.. GFS did very well with Dean while EURO struggled in early stages getting a fix. The EURO pegged Erin's formation days in advance while it took awhile for the GFS to catch on

[cycloneye]

No low at 66 hours.

As this threrad is for 94L only,this model and others are showing lows in the Eastern Atlantic,those runs can be posted in the (Long Term Model Runs) thread in Talking Tropics forum.

66 hours

[cycloneye]

108 hours

Nada.

Now lets wait for CMC,GFDL,NOGAPS,UKMET and EURO to see if they show something about 94L.

[skysummit]

108 hours

Nada.

Now lets wait for CMC,GFDL,NOGAPS,UKMET and EURO to see if they show something about 94L.

Yea, I'm REALLY interested to see what the GFDL does with it. If it dissipates it, my thinking on development may go down the drain for at least a day or two.

[skysummit]

12z NOGAPS is coming out:

FNMOC Page

[skysummit]

108 hours

Nada.

Now lets wait for CMC,GFDL,NOGAPS,UKMET and EURO to see if they show something about 94L.

Yea, I'm REALLY interested to see what the GFDL does with it. If it dissipates it, my thinking on development may go down the drain for at least a day or two.

Yup...it dissipates it.


WHXX04 KWBC 281719
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.0 40.1 270./20.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[PhillyWX]

I believe the EURO at 0z last night that took the storm to the north of Hispaniola after Day 8 or 9? I didn't agree with the slowness of the track...9 days from 40 W to 70 W is a bit lengthy given the storm is moving at 15-20 mph now.

[Meso]

HWRF : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

GFDL :
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

heh HWRF showing something in the gulf,but not much with 94l

[cycloneye]

What about the 12z EURO for 94L?

[Meso]

12z EURO will be out in 40 min

[Meso]

12z cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation