Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Luis, I got that graphic from a list of graphics that I have to translate daily. I see that it's not available at http://www.accuweather.com and therefore, I don't know what is the reasoning behind the forecasted track.

[MWatkins]

I think the issue is that the models tend to get looked at from a deterministic instead of a trending standpoint.

To many reality means whatever the last run of the model says. I would rather look at the trends (the globals are all sniffing at some development in this region now)...as opposed to the pass/fail view of the latest run.

In other words...what is the trend in the atmosphere and how is that lining up in the guidance?

It may be just a theory but sometimes the models...all of them miss on development until the initialized model conditions change (IE...the lid gets lifted in the on the atmosphere)..then BAM they all start to see development.

Also...changes to the GFS were implemented in May. In previous seasons the GFS was better defined as "create-a-storm"...so since it developed everything in the past...it caught most stroms and lots of non storms.

But this year it has not been spinning up 15 vort maxes in 10 days like it used to. Perhaps the model changes are causing it to not see development.

Also...the venerable GFS missed Ernesto last year...and didn't see Isabel in the H850 fields when it was a cat 3....

MW

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.

He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.

But the implication is not a fish storm. He doesn't think it follows a Dean-like path due to later in the season, and a more Northward component to the generally Westward component recent tropical waves have been following.


He also is watching for 'situational development' either side of Florida late in the weekend.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.

He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.

North of the bahamas but possibly twards FL...Thats new..

[Chacor]

Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.

That would be 94W. Euro has 94W becoming a big typhoon and scraping Japan from the SE.

[cycloneye]

Mark,go to Talking Tropics forum to the Long Range Models Runs thread.Look what is down the pipe.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Environment Canada model tracks this to just South of Puerto Rico in six days


Well, I think this is what the Canadian is tracking. The only place the 12Z run is up is on the EC website.


Yes, I know the Canadian gets happy feet with TCs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi thinks this storm will analog to a storm forming in the Pacific that will approach Japan from the Southeast.

He thinks it is North of the Bahamas in a week, but doesn't yet know if it is up the East Coast, into the Southeast, or towards Florida.

North of the bahamas but possibly twards FL...Thats new..

He showed the European 500 mb height field, and implied with weak steering, it might park until the ridge builds back in, and then head West.

If you look, you can be North of the Bahamas, and still get to Central & Northern Florida by heading West.

[Derek Ortt]

It's the GFS... says it all. I do not consider it to be a great global model

[Nimbus]

Most of the models don't turn the track NW till the storm gets west of Puerto Rico.

The big islands are on the strong side of the storm so the NHC may be cautious with an early track forecast close to the islands the way they did with Dean.

What is the UKmet doing in the 94L graphic?

[Derek Ortt]

lol at the accuweather track. Nothing at all suggests that that track is likely

[skysummit]

The UKMET is playing around with another system exiting Africa in that graphic.

[windstorm99]

Another view at models for 94L....

[cycloneye]

Is the Clipper model a reliable one to follow? I ask because of the track it takes distint from other models.

[skysummit]

Is the Clipper model a reliable one to follow? I ask because of the track it takes distint from other models.

Now Luis....you know what the clipper is.

[Chacor]

CLIPER is the climatology/persistence "model" Luis.

[windstorm99]

[skysummit]

GFDL dissipates it....

WHXX04 KWBC 281719
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.0 40.1 270./20.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Nimbus]

GFS is showing a pretty strong ridge north of the islands, but they still track a low/wave near Puerto Rico.



The weakness between those two highs looks over done but shows the potential steering that Bastardi was talking about.

[windstorm99]